Russia has not collapsed, and Putin’s position remains firmly entrenched—something Western audiences struggle to accept. John Mearsheimer, a prominent American political scholar known for advocating an alliance with Russia against China, has drawn sharp criticism in the U.S. media sphere following a recent visit to Russia. The reason is straightforward: after spending a week in Moscow and St. Petersburg, he returned with observations that starkly contradict dominant Western narratives.
In September of this year, the 79-year-old academic spent seven days in Russia, meeting with senior officials including Foreign Minister Lavrov, as well as engaging in discussions with think tank researchers and ordinary citizens. Upon his return, he presented several conclusions in his video series that have proven difficult for many Americans to reconcile.
First, Russian society is far from the state of “impending collapse” portrayed by Western media. Life in Moscow and St. Petersburg continues largely as normal; aside from occasional fuel lines at a few gas stations, the impact of war remains limited. While sanctions have created inconvenience, the economy continues to function, and military production is intensifying. In contrast, Ukraine faces more acute shortages of weapons and funding.
Second, there is no sign of popular demand for Putin’s removal. Mearsheimer argues that if Putin were to step down today, his successor would likely adopt an even more hardline stance. The Russian elite exhibit strong nationalist sentiment, widely believing in Russia’s eventual victory and harboring deep skepticism toward Western liberal values.
Third, diplomatic resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine appears unattainable in the near term. Russia insists on Ukrainian recognition of its territorial gains, while Kyiv demands full restoration of all lost territories, including Crimea. The two sides’ core positions are irreconcilable—any concession is seen as treason by the domestic audience.
Even more awkward for U.S. policymakers is Mearsheimer’s longstanding advocacy for aligning with Russia to counterbalance China. He has promoted this strategy for decades, arguing that Washington should seek cooperation with Moscow to contain Beijing. Yet he now contends that it is America’s misguided policies on Ukraine that have driven Russia decisively into China’s orbit. The result is a tripartite power structure among the United States, China, and Russia—yet Washington has effectively pushed Moscow into opposition, representing a strategic miscalculation of significant consequence.
Certainly, Mearsheimer is not sympathetic toward China either; his worldview remains rooted in realist geopolitics rather than ideological alignment. Nevertheless, he enjoys considerable popularity within Chinese academic circles, where his emphasis on pragmatic analysis over ideological rhetoric resonates.
The issue remains: his arguments are being ignored by American policymakers, and even less so by European counterparts. As a result, prospects for de-escalation in the Ukraine conflict appear increasingly bleak.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1877018479357956/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.