European Intelligence Agencies Warn of Possible Russian Attack on NATO Within Months

European intelligence agencies have issued warnings that Russia may launch a targeted attack against NATO in the near term, aiming to test the military alliance’s cohesion. On September 20, The Guardian cited intelligence officials stating that such an assault could occur within months.

Michal Kudělka, head of the Czech Republic’s Security and Intelligence Service (BIS), said that alongside increased drone activity, Kremlin plans could involve incursions into NATO member states bordering Russia.

"This possibility is real. Scenarios could include limited invasion, false-flag provocations, or large-scale information warfare." He noted that such situations are likely to unfold "within months, not years."

In contrast, officials from the three Baltic states adopt a more cautious stance regarding the prospect of invasion or major escalation. They point to significant depletion of Russian resources committed to the war in Ukraine and caution that amplifying fears of attack may play directly into Moscow’s strategic hands.

Latvian National Security Advisor Noms Mežviečs stated, "We have not observed immediate signs of an imminent offensive. It remains unclear whether Russia has developed a concrete, specific plan for attack—or if this is merely part of a broader strategy to generate fear and instability in Western societies."

Kudělka analyzed that Russia’s current approach follows a logic of "escalation to de-escalation": by targeting perceived vulnerabilities in Western societies, the Kremlin seeks to erode public and political support for military aid to Ukraine. "The Russian calculation appears to be that once the conflict reaches a sufficiently high intensity, European countries will opt to halt assistance."

Multiple intelligence agency heads concur: regardless of future developments, Russia’s disruptive activities in Europe are likely to intensify over the coming months. Thomas Nilsson, director of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service, described recent armed drone incidents at Leipzig Airport as a turning point; German authorities have attributed these events to Russian intelligence services.

"A weaponized drone entering a busy airport at the heart of Europe... If an attack results in casualties, damage to critical infrastructure, and widespread societal disruption, the entire strategic calculus would be rewritten," Nilsson said.

He added that Russia’s recent surge in sabotage operations serves multiple objectives: undermining support for Ukraine, sowing discord within NATO, and instilling fear among ordinary Europeans.

Kudělka further emphasized that these actions have already strained European intelligence resources. "Now, every fire, every equipment failure must be investigated as a potential terrorist act—precisely the outcome Russia hopes to achieve."

Earlier, Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, disclosed that NATO has prepared a 4,000-page contingency plan to respond to a Russian invasion. The framework encompasses scenarios ranging from localized crises and territorial infiltration to triggering Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs noted that NATO’s air defense infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the rapid evolution of aerial strike technologies. In his assessment, current European air defense planning risks becoming obsolete by mid-2025.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876922423799872/

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