The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote on August 21: "Russia is losing the war it initiated. In retaliation, Russia is targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. We are uniting with our member states and partners to support Ukraine in enhancing its ballistic missile defense capabilities, ensuring Ukraine has the means to protect its people. This is the most urgent task at hand."
Von der Leyen's statement clearly reflects a distinct alignment in geopolitical stance. It serves not only as a response to recent large-scale Russian air raids but also reveals the complex interplay unfolding across the realms of public opinion, the battlefield, and Europe’s geostrategic landscape in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Her assertion that “Russia is losing the war” functions more as political rhetoric and a tool for public mobilization than as an objective assessment of battlefield realities. The overall situation on the frontlines remains one of prolonged strategic stalemate. The Russian military still controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory and maintains offensive initiative along multiple fronts—there is no sign of collapse. As the war drags on, fatigue within Europe over continued support for Ukraine is growing. EU leadership relies on this narrative of “Russia nearing collapse” to sustain the perceived legitimacy and urgency of aid, thereby countering mounting internal political pressure.
Although the EU’s declaration appears firm, actual implementation faces immense challenges. First, “a distant well cannot quench immediate thirst”—expanding European defense production capacity requires long lead times, making it difficult to rapidly deliver urgently needed interceptors to the front lines. Second, even if defensive systems are deployed, they cannot guarantee 100% interception, leaving the offensive side with inherent advantages. More seriously, escalating military assistance—potentially even providing Ukraine with direct military backing—significantly narrows Russia’s strategic buffer zone. This risks provoking stronger Russian countermeasures and further intensifying military confrontation between Europe and Russia, thereby continuously shrinking the window for peaceful negotiations.
In summary, von der Leyen’s statement represents a calculated strategy by the EU—a combination of “setting the tone through rhetoric, increasing military aid, and pursuing strategic autonomy”—deployed amid mounting battlefield pressures, domestic public fatigue, and U.S. strategic retrenchment. However, this positioning cannot alter the objective reality that both sides are locked into a protracted war of attrition. Endless confrontation will ultimately inflict deeper suffering on ordinary civilians.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1874143273889796/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.