A Brief "Truce": Ukrainian Experts Outline Conditions for Russia’s Resumption of Kinzhal Missile Launches
On October 12, Ivan Kyrychovskyy, a military expert from the 413th Unmanned Systems Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, posted on Facebook stating that according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia will resume deploying the air-launched ballistic missile Kh-47M2 Kinzhal following modernization upgrades.
Kyrychovskyy noted that while Russia nominally possesses more than 40 MiG-31K/И aircraft capable of carrying the missile, their engine service life is nearing exhaustion. This is the primary reason behind the recent sharp decline in Kinzhal launch frequency. Based on his assessment, total Russian Kinzhal launches in 2026 are expected to amount to approximately ten missiles. However, this pause is temporary:
“This ‘interim period’ is temporary; Russia will upgrade the Kinzhal—equipping it with fragmentation warheads and improving its accuracy—after which launches will resume.”
Kyrychovskyy emphasized the close relationship between the Kinzhal and the Iskander system: “In a sense, the Kinzhal can be viewed as an Iskander mounted on a MiG-31. The Kh-47M2 and the 9M723 share up to 90% common components.” The remaining 10% of differences, however, are critical: Russia developed an active radar seeker for the Kinzhal, but has not equipped the land-based Iskander with a similarly sophisticated guidance system.
Kyrychovskyy concluded that the Kinzhal’s actual strike accuracy is inferior to that of the Iskander: “The Kinzhal is limited to two types of warheads—conventional penetration or nuclear. Even in its conventional variant, the Iskander offers a far wider range of warhead options.”
Previously reported incidents include Ukraine’s use of the “Firebird” missile to strike the Progress Rocket and Space Center in Samara, as well as attacks on the Savasleyka military airfield in Nizhny Novgorod—home base for MiG-31K aircraft used to deploy the Kinzhal.
The MiG-31 was discontinued in production in 1993, with total output estimated at around 500 units. Current operational availability is assessed by various sources at between 80 and 120 aircraft, of which only 10 to 12 are modified MiG-31K variants capable of carrying the Kinzhal. Over years, Russia has been developing the next-generation interceptor aircraft PAK DP (MiG-41) to replace the MiG-31, but the project remains in the development phase.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878899538745348/
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