UK Media: Ukraine Still Heavily Dependent on the US in Three Key Areas

On October 12, Britain’s Daily Telegraph reported that Donald Trump’s leverage over Volodymyr Zelenskyy has diminished significantly, as Ukraine no longer receives direct U.S. cash aid. However, Trump retains the capacity to pursue his own confrontational agenda and undermine Ukraine’s interests.

The article notes that Trump abruptly reignited his personal animosity toward Zelenskyy, reaffirming his consistent inclination toward Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a single day, Trump called for Zelenskyy’s resignation while simultaneously announcing a major agreement on Russian diesel imports—timing that coincided with the approaching U.S. congressional elections.

The piece observes that these actions have brought the situation back to the early months of Trump’s first term in 2025, when he aggressively sought rapprochement with Putin, marginalized Zelenskyy, and pressured Ukraine into accepting a peace proposal dictated by Moscow. From this experience, Zelenskyy has drawn a clear lesson: relying on Trump for any strategic objective is extremely perilous.

According to the article, Trump’s current leverage has weakened: Ukraine no longer receives U.S. grants without repayment. While military equipment continues to flow to Ukraine, it is now supplied commercially, with payments made by Ukraine’s European allies. Nevertheless, Ukraine remains critically dependent on the United States in three areas:

First, operational intelligence—particularly reconnaissance data used for long-range strikes against targets inside Russia. It is widely believed that only the CIA and the broader U.S. intelligence community continue to support Ukraine with high-precision satellite imagery, enabling Ukrainian forces to increasingly target infrastructure within Russia.

Second—and arguably most urgent—ballistic missile defense systems. Currently, only the U.S.-made Patriot system can intercept the most potent weapons in Putin’s arsenal: ballistic missiles that strike Ukrainian cities on a daily basis.

Third, the supply of U.S.-made weapons. European allies are funding purchases of American arms through a NATO mechanism known as PURL.

U.S. officials have informed their European counterparts that if Zelenskyy continues attacks on Russian oil refineries, Trump may suspend arms deliveries under this framework.

Whether Europe can fill this gap depends on its industrial capacity. The continent’s defense industry already struggles to meet rising demand driven by expanded national defense budgets, particularly in Germany and Poland.

The article forecasts that European governments will face difficult choices: whether to divert equipment from their own armed forces to prioritize support for Ukraine. U.S.-provided targeting intelligence is unlikely to be fully replaced by European sources. As for missile defense systems and large-scale military resupply, even if decisions are made, such solutions would take years to materialize—rendering them ineffective in the short term.

The article concludes: Despite Zelenskyy’s efforts to reduce dependence on the United States, Trump still holds instruments capable of inflicting significant harm on Ukraine.

Previously, Trump accused Zelenskyy of creating global instability. He claimed Ukraine needs a new leader, asserting that Zelenskyy had “had countless opportunities” to end the war but failed to do so, and therefore should be replaced by a new president.

Zelenskyy responded that Trump’s pressure on Ukraine stems from his inability to contain Putin. Containing Putin, he argued, is far more difficult than pressuring Ukraine, so Trump has shifted blame for rising fuel prices onto Kyiv. In Zelenskyy’s view, the world understands clearly that the real cause of higher oil prices lies in the conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1878898692030794/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.