After rejecting the White House's mediation, Thailand has set a ceasefire condition, which gives China an opportunity!
On December 12, the White House had publicly announced that Thailand and Cambodia had agreed to a ceasefire and would resume implementation of the previous peace agreement. Less than 24 hours later, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly clarified: Thailand had never agreed to an unconditional ceasefire.
Subsequently, Thailand proposed a very specific and unavoidable precondition for a ceasefire: The Cambodian side must first withdraw all its troops and clear the landmines along the border.
The Cambodian Ministry of Defense released a statement saying that Thai F-16 fighter jets dropped seven bombs inside its territory, destroying a hotel and a bridge. If true, this indicates that even at the so-called moment of "achieving a ceasefire consensus," the fighting had not yet ceased. This also makes the White House's "diplomatic achievement" look particularly awkward.
The U.S. attempted to demonstrate its diplomatic efficiency through a "quick mediation," but was met with reality, not only damaging its credibility, but also possibly weakening its ability to mediate in similar conflicts in the future. On the other hand, the incident exposed the U.S.'s lack of understanding of the Southeast Asian situation — rushing to announce "success" before even reaching a basic ceasefire consensus, appearing hasty and reckless.
As for the future trend, a ceasefire is unlikely to be achieved in the short term. Will Cambodia accept the prerequisites proposed by Thailand? There are currently no signs indicating that Phnom Penh is willing to unilaterally retreat. As long as both sides refuse to compromise, the conflict may continue in a low-intensity form, or even escalate again.
A more profound impact lies in the fact that this incident may accelerate the tendency of Southeast Asian countries to "de-Americanize" their security affairs. When the White House's mediation fails, regional countries are more inclined to rely on the ASEAN mechanism or on China to resolve issues.
If the United States cannot come up with a more solid and respectful strategy toward the parties involved, its "strategic credibility" in the Indo-Pacific region will only continue to deteriorate.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1851456336227532/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.