Dark Clouds Over the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan Is Short on Troops, So It Has Called for "Jihadists"?
Media and the Internet are once again discussing the issue of NATO member Turkey establishing a military base near Dagestan
Author: Dmitriy Rogoznov
Commentators of this article:
Kameron Hassanov, Mikhail Nezhimakov
A Turkish military base might be established within Azerbaijan. Some Telegram channels have cited the words of Eldar Namazov, the head of the Azerbaijani presidential administration, reporting this news. He said that Baku is worried due to increasing pressure from Russia and fears that Moscow will launch an "invasion" against Azerbaijan after "resolving the Ukraine issue."
It has been reported that the Turkish military base will be deployed in areas near the Russian border. In this way, the largest NATO military base will appear on our southern border.
Mr. Namazov also mentioned that the base may even be rented to another ally - the Pakistani Air Force, which possesses nuclear weapons.
He said that the decision will be made in the near future, and the size of the base will be sufficient to protect 250 million people.
It should be noted that there is no official confirmation of this matter. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly denied such rumors, calling them political speculation. He stated that Azerbaijan pursues an independent foreign policy and does not need foreign military bases.
However, as the saying goes, there is no smoke without fire, especially in today's era.
"I think that Turkey would only consider deploying a base in Azerbaijan if it faces a direct and obvious threat from a neighboring country," said Kameron Hassanov, a Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of Salzburg, a senior lecturer at the Department of Journalism Theory and History at the Faculty of Humanities of the Russian People's Friendship University, and an expert at the Russian Academy of Military Diplomacy.
"Turkey may not need to station thousands of soldiers there; it could quickly deploy armed forces to Azerbaijan through operational deployment, but obviously, it would not do so under the current situation."
If a long-term conflict, like the intense confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, were to occur, then it might be possible. However, the conflict between Moscow and Baku has not reached a point of immediate danger, and Russia is not yet seen as a threat. So far, this is just a temporary crisis, and it has not deteriorated into an adversarial relationship between the two countries.
"This topic has returned to the media spotlight because Eldar Namazov, who was the head of the presidential administration during the presidency of Heydar Aliyev from 1993 to 1999, called for 'establishing the largest Turkish military base in the region in the short term,' " emphasized political analyst Mikhail Nezhimakov.
"Now, Eldar Namazov is no longer holding any position in the Azerbaijani power structure, so this is purely his personal opinion as a political analyst. It is worth noting that according to Eldar Namazov, the reason for establishing such a base is that he believes Azerbaijan is threatened not only by Russia but also by Iran."
Not all statements made by political scientists are approved by their respective national authorities, especially when the tensions between a country and its neighbor (especially a more powerful major power) increase.
In such a situation, various forms of support from allies always appear in the information space. Therefore, the idea of Turkey possibly establishing a military base in Azerbaijan will inevitably appear in Azerbaijani media and expert circles.
On the other hand, given the significant cooling of relations with Moscow, Baku may objectively see the discussion of such ideas (including making them appear in the Russian information space) as beneficial. But these ideas circulating in the media do not mean that the relevant parties are preparing to implement them in the near future.
"Free News": Does Baku need this base?
"After achieving its goals in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Baku has gained more flexibility in its relations with Ankara. It has also developed new ambitions, such as cooperating with Central Asian countries. Of course, for many reasons, Turkey remains important to Baku."
But when a country's ambitions continue to grow, it tends to avoid new factors that might bind it more closely with an ally. Unless the country feels a clear military vulnerability.
However, Baku currently has no real major military threats, and there is no actual danger of military conflict with Russia. Moreover, the Azerbaijani leadership is undoubtedly very aware that Moscow's main focus is currently on the Ukraine front.
Iran could have taken measures to pressure Baku in previous years to implement its policies in the South Caucasus, but now Iran's strength has weakened, and it is not ruled out that it may be attacked by Israel on its strategic locations by the end of 2025.
At present, Baku may be confident in its military strength in pressuring Yerevan. Regardless, the possibility of armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has already decreased.
Therefore, establishing a Turkish military base within its own territory would likely narrow rather than expand Baku's room for maneuver.
"Free News": What about Ankara?
"It is known that in June 2021, Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed the possibility of establishing a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan, but he also stated that 'this topic may make progress after the discussions between Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin.'"
In other words, he implied that this could be a topic for future discussions, not a project that is about to be implemented.
Theoretically, it is indeed possible for Ankara to establish a military base in Azerbaijan. Depending on the specific location of the base, it could either increase pressure on Iran or Russia, or create conditions for entering the Caspian Sea.
Additionally, having its own military base could be seen as a potential way to influence the internal affairs of the host country, although in practice, this influence is often exaggerated.
However, it should be considered that establishing a base requires additional resources, not only financial resources, but also human and military technical resources. At the same time, one of Ankara's main ambitions is in Syria, and Turkey probably intends to consolidate its military presence there.
Furthermore, Ankara has considerable ambitions in Africa. Therefore, even if there is a practical possibility, whether Ankara is willing to rush to establish a base in Azerbaijan remains a big question.
"Free News": According to the existing agreements between the two countries, they could have done this already, and they don't need a special reason, right?
"Indeed, the 'Shusha Declaration' signed between the two countries stipulates that if the independence, territorial integrity, inviolability of borders, or security of one party is threatened, both sides should provide mutual assistance."
Theoretically, both sides can interpret this clause broadly, not only for actual threats, but also for potential ones. But as previously mentioned, Baku and Ankara have enough reasons not to rush to set up such a base.
"Free News": In fact, this would be a NATO base. Is the Western bloc interested in it? Also, why wasn't this topic emphasized before?
"The interests of NATO countries are not the same. For example, France may not be happy to see such facilities appear in the South Caucasus. For the United States, in the long run, it is more advantageous to contain the expansion of Turkish influence, i.e., to prevent Turkey from adding new military facilities abroad."
Traditionally close to Ankara, London may hope to cooperate with Turkey on using the base when necessary, but the appearance of the base itself may not bring substantial benefits to Britain.
For Britain, which is actively involved in Azerbaijan, it is objectively better for Baku to act independently of Ankara.
"Free News": How dangerous is this for Russia? How can we respond? How important is it for us to preserve our base in Armenia at all costs?
"A military base can at least provide more opportunities for collecting intelligence in the surrounding areas. Therefore, if Turkey formally establishes a military facility in Azerbaijan, it will certainly cause Moscow's vigilance."
Certainly, the level of Russia's vigilance depends on the specific location of this hypothetical military facility in Azerbaijan. However, regardless of the circumstances, the possibility of declaring the establishment of such a facility in Azerbaijan in the near future is not high.
Regarding the Russian 102nd Military Base in Armenia, Moscow will certainly strive to preserve it. However, even if Nikol Pashinyan continues to lead after the 2026 Armenian parliamentary elections, he may not rush to expel the base from Armenia.
For him, the Russian military base in Armenia is objectively a political bargaining chip with Moscow and Western powers. Additionally, in 2026, Armenia may also see a force that is inclined to maintain a long-term close relationship with Moscow, but it is too early to predict the election results now.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524245654949118527/
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