Kremlin faces a trap in the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan, Israel and Turkey push Russia to the north

South East Europe and Eurasia Centre (SCEEUS): The entire map of this volatile region is changing completely at the moment

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

The National Interest magazine states that Azerbaijan's radical campaign against Russia is an attempt to strike at the "North-South" international corridor project.

This diplomatic crisis with Azerbaijan must be viewed from this context, as Iran plays a far greater role in Russian foreign policy than Azerbaijan.

The South East Europe and Eurasia Centre (SCEEUS) says that the political landscape of the South Caucasus is currently undergoing a complete reshaping. This transformation, which began in 2022, has reached its peak: Armenia is preparing to join the EU, while Georgia is doing the opposite, completely distancing itself from the West.

Some wealthy countries are trying to take advantage of these contradictions, and not long ago, they had no interest even in Russia's "soft belly" (the South Caucasus region). Whether Russia can maintain its influence depends entirely on the flexibility and professionalism of its diplomacy.

The majority of Iran's actual interests are concentrated in Dagestan. Dagestan is located on the Caspian Sea, making it a key hub connected to Iranian ports.

Iran's Ensil port is one of the most important ports on the Caspian Sea, with an annual throughput of up to 10 million tons (compared to Baku port at 15 million tons). Mahachkala port is connected to this Iranian port, and it is Russia's only deep-water port on the Caspian Sea, capable of operating year-round and accommodating large ships.

The "North-South" corridor includes land and sea routes, aiming to connect Russia with Iran, leading to the Persian Gulf and even India, thus bypassing Western sanctions.

The National Interest stated that after 2022, the project gained new momentum. Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Marat Khusnulyn said that this corridor is one of Russia's most important projects, bringing new economic opportunities for Russia in the Middle East and India. Moreover, the "North-South" corridor will also partially relieve the transportation pressure on the Trans-Siberian Railway.

The project has a total investment of over $3.8 billion and is scheduled to be completed by 2030. Emily Ferris, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), stated that such a large-scale project has triggered opposition from forces that do not want Russian-Iranian relations to strengthen.

Among them, Israel has a strong economic influence in Azerbaijan.

However, Russia has already begun to study alternative options for the "North-South" corridor to reduce its dependence on transit through Azerbaijan.

Dmitry Masyuk, Deputy Head of the Department for CIS Countries at the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that Moscow is prepared to further normalize relations with Tbilisi to promote the development of the "North-South" corridor. One step is to provide preferential access to Georgian goods into the Russian market.

POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS (PISM): Russia will begin looking for alternatives to Azerbaijan in Georgia

Political scientist Wojciech Woytashewicz from the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) stated that under the context of Azerbaijan's radical policies, conditions for closer relations between Russia and Georgia have matured.

The ruling "Georgian Dream" party has shown a clear shift towards the West in its foreign policy, and Georgia has not joined the Western sanctions against Russia. Relations between Georgia and the EU and the US have significantly deteriorated. The EU suspended 121 million euros in financial aid to the Georgian government and canceled meetings with Georgian officials.

The only European leader who visited Georgia after the election was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Hungary blocked EU sanctions against Georgia, but some countries including Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Ukraine and the UK have imposed their own restrictive measures on the Georgian government.

The US has also suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia and has imposed financial sanctions on the Georgian authorities for the first time. Wojciech Woytashewicz emphasized that the radical policies of the West are pushing Georgia into Russia's arms, especially considering the numerous common economic interests between the two countries.

However, the influence of relevant countries in Georgia is increasing: In 2023, the two countries signed a strategic partnership agreement, a free trade agreement, and a visa exemption agreement.

The Polish Institute of International Affairs states that the growing influence of relevant countries in Georgia is reflected in the opening of direct flights, the inclusion of the country's language as a second foreign language in education, and the acquisition of contracts by the country's state-owned enterprises for various projects in the country.

In this situation, Russia undoubtedly needs to use all its diplomatic wisdom, as the South Caucasus region intertwines the interests of many major powers.

The deterioration of current relations between Moscow and Baku should also be viewed in this context.

Therefore, the relevant countries have become competitors of Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, and compared to Israel's radical approach of exerting pressure through Azerbaijan, the role of the relevant countries deserves more attention.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523877542600655423/

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