The Baran Magazine cheers: Aliyev, Erdogan and Pashinyan are about to force Putin to yield

The real reason for the Russia-Azerbaijan conflict — control over the Syunik region

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Conflict within Armenia and the conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan have common causes — attempts to reshape the political map of the South Caucasus. For example, in Armenia, the opposition forces opposing Nikol Pashinyan are trying to undermine the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Turkey. This is a general attitude of Turkish media, which extensively reports on the situation in the post-Soviet space.

In an article in the influential liberal publication "Serbestiyet", political observer Yunus Emre Eljeren directly wrote that the alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan is playing an increasingly important role in the region. If Russia was initially forced to compromise, it no longer submits to this pressure now.

Between the two wars won by Azerbaijan in 2020 and 2022, Pashinyan won early elections with 54% of the vote. Despite strong opposition from nationalists, oligarchs, the army and the church, Pashinyan still signed a ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan.

Now, both sides are discussing the conclusion of a peace treaty. And, as reported by "Serbestiyet", this will be a step towards Armenia first restoring diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan and then with Turkey. Eljeren detailed the economic impact of this step:

—— Opening the border between Turkey and Armenia, activating regional trade. Armenia has invested $2.5 million to rebuild the closed Margara border crossing.

At the same time, conservative and nationalist elements in Turkey are keenly watching Azerbaijan's "strike" against Russia. The magazine "Baran Dergisi" said that the Azerbaijani state television has dared to make direct personal attacks on Vladimir Putin.

"Baran Dergisi" wrote that Milli Mejlis (parliament) member Tural Ganjeli (former diplomat, elected from Nagorno-Karabakh) publicly accused Russia of "chauvinism, discrimination and Islamophobia".

"Baran Dergisi" stated: "Baku intends to intensify tensions in order to force Moscow to make concessions in the peace agreement with Armenia, especially regarding the Syunik corridor.".

The publication cited its sources stating that Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia are about to reach an agreement that will allow them to control this transport corridor and exclude Russia.

It is not accidental that Turkey is pushing for the two countries to reach a peace agreement. Last month, President Recep Erdogan met with Prime Minister Pashinyan in Istanbul.

The Turkish newspaper "Hurriyet" wrote: "The area where Syunik is located has attracted the interest of many countries. The most important participants in this extremely complex situation include Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey. Due to different interests of many potential participants in the Syunik corridor project, their conflicts have led to increased tensions in the region."

The Turkish publication "Iran Para Analiz" stated that one obstacle to the Syunik corridor is Iran, which has firmly opposed opening the corridor.

The publication said that this is because opening the corridor would accelerate bilateral foreign trade, but bypass Iranian territory. However, due to being attacked by the United States and Israel, Iran is weakened, and its current weakness has created new opportunities for Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Additionally, Azerbaijan and Turkey are not only strengthening economic ties, but also military ties. Former head of the Azerbaijani presidential office Eldar Namazov said that the country is under pressure from Iran and Russia.

He mentioned the "Shusha Declaration" signed in June 2021, which stipulates that if one party is attacked, both will provide mutual defense.

"Baran Dergisi" quoted Namazov as saying: "The recent decision will determine the deployment of the largest Turkish military base in the region."

The Turkish publication "Ozgur Politika" believes that deploying a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan is a countermeasure against Russia.

Russia's influence in Armenia is first related to its military presence (the military base in Gyumri), rather than political or economic factors. At the same time, Baku is strengthening defense connections with several countries, especially with Israel, Turkey and Italy, while Russia's military influence in Azerbaijan has greatly declined.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523874608450191914/

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