The visit of the Iranian president to Azerbaijan is alarming: "Unbelievable" actions continue

Author:

Sergey Ratishchev

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Azerbaijan, attended the 17th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit in the capital of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has been recaptured from Armenians — now called Ganja instead of Stepanakert — and met with leaders of several countries, including Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Since the talks were confidential, specific details have not been reported in the media. The reports emphasized "friendly embraces" and "frank exchanges." But a terrible fact has emerged: Baku has made its choice, standing against Russia — and the corresponding retaliation... has not yet come.

From Tehran's perspective, this visit was a "reconnaissance": to test the attitude of neighboring countries toward Iran under the new situation and what Iran can get from them. Moreover, due to Iran's power structure, Pezeshkian does not have final decision-making authority.

Iranian President departing for Azerbaijan to attend the summit.

When communicating with the Iranian president (they speak the same language: Azerbaijani and Turkish are almost identical, and the Iranian president is an Azerbaijani and prefers to speak in his mother tongue), Aliyev and Erdogan faced several important tasks.

Three clear objectives

First, trying to persuade Iran to distance itself from Armenia and encourage Yerevan to sign a "humiliating peace agreement." This agreement has been drafted, and the Western-backed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has原则上 agreed in principle, but he has been hesitant to take the final step — signing — out of fear of domestic protests and negative reactions from Iran.

Second, changing Tehran's stance on the so-called Zangazur transport corridor. This corridor will pass through the Syunik region of Armenia, not only connecting Nakhchivan to the mainland of Azerbaijan, but also connecting the Caspian Sea to Turkey and Europe, as well as connecting Central Asian countries and related countries in the opposite direction.

Baku and Ankara insist that parts of the corridor within Armenian territory should have actual extraterritorial rights, while Yerevan opposes this, insisting on jurisdiction over the truly geopolitically significant section of the corridor within Armenian territory. Tehran also holds the same position, fearing that the Zangazur corridor would isolate Iran from the South Caucasus, exacerbate the country's marginalization in logistics as seen by the West, and strengthen the position of its rival Turkey and the Western countries behind it in the region. These concerns are not unfounded.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ilham Aliyev, and Masoud Pezeshkian attending the opening ceremony of the 17th Economic Cooperation Organization Summit in Ganja.

Third, Baku and Ankara undoubtedly have a third objective: reassuring Tehran, claiming they will not help Iran's enemies or incite regime change, although in fact both countries do so. Azerbaijan openly cooperates with Israel in multiple areas. Turkey, on the other hand, uses empty anti-Israel rhetoric as a cover, acting more covertly, despite the fact that it (with Qatar's accompaniment, Russia pushing from the sidelines) took Syria away from Iran.

According to regional media reports, after returning to Iran from Azerbaijan, Pezeshkian specifically pointed out that his talks with Aliyev were "conducted in a friendly atmosphere," and his dialogue with the Turkish president was "very pleasant and constructive." Before that, he also said:

Some people told me that this trip might be dangerous. But as you can see, I went and returned safely.

"Unbelievable" Action: New Plan

This statement by the Iranian president — actually, Baku received him rather quietly (the first vice prime minister greeted him, and the culture minister saw him off) — carries a touch of cunning, which may also hint at Baku and Ankara's fourth objective.

The cunning lies in the fact that the West has no intention of removing Pezeshkian; they see him as a "reformer," believing he might make concessions, and ... become a factor of division within Iran.

Yes, Turkey and Azerbaijan are very happy (they genuinely embraced) that Pezeshkian became the first Azerbaijani president of Iran in a long time. It is well known that he loves his mother tongue and considers it part of his identity, born in the East Azerbaijan province of Iran.

Moreover, Pezeshkian is more ethnically Azerbaijani than Aliyev (there are rumors that his mother is Kurdish because he is fluent in Kurdish, but this claim is unverified). While Aliyev's father is Kurdish, and his mother is Armenian — a fact well known in the South Caucasus, although rarely mentioned.

The meeting between the Iranian president and the Azerbaijani president was friendly, and on the surface, even very warm.

In short, such a valuable "talent" — not a cleric, a opponent of religious fundamentalism, a "pro-Westerner" — is taking control of this multi-ethnic eastern empire (the US and Israel have decided to split it, and have lured Iran's neighbors for this purpose) — is undoubtedly a card that can be used. Especially when Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (also an Azerbaijani, but "assimilated") is aging, in poor health, and about to step down, Iran will face a huge vulnerable moment, and its enemies will naturally act like they did with Russia (and there will inevitably be similar situations when power changes in the future).

In summary, Pezeshkian observed Aliyev (who had met him in April) and Erdogan in Stepanakert — sorry, Ganja — and Aliyev and Erdogan also observed him. After the aggression by the US and Israel (the 12-day war), Iran's strength has been damaged, and they are eager to know what action Tehran will take in the South Caucasus direction, whether there are weaknesses within the Iranian leadership.

Iran and Russia suffer losses

From the fact that only the minister of culture saw Pezeshkian off, this Iranian president still has some level. It is reported that Baku and Ankara plan to establish the largest NATO base in the region in Azerbaijan, which initially targets Iran, and later will shift its focus to Russia.

They claim this is because they are worried about "Russian aggression," believing that after controlling Ukraine, Moscow might attack Azerbaijan. However, actually, waging war with Russia is not easy, so the plan is primarily targeting Iran, aiming to provide a base for NATO or Israeli aircraft to refuel and load bombs and missiles to attack Iran.

But this is also closely related to Russia. Obviously, Baku has decided to worsen relations with Moscow, not only because it wants to please the British who control the upper echelons of Azerbaijani capital and fully support Ukraine, considering Russia as a weak and toxic country, but more importantly, it has clearly gained the opportunity to "divide" Armenia and Iran. After winning Karabakh, Azerbaijan has become somewhat "overconfident," getting involved in the game of more powerful geopolitical players, which is undoubtedly a serious mistake.

Even if Baku has no intention of fighting Russia — the world's leading nuclear power, one of Azerbaijan's main trading partners, and home to millions of Azerbaijanis (many of whom have left their homeland out of necessity) — it seems to have decided to join the camp hostile to Russia, becoming part of a new "quarantine belt." This makes one wonder if the West will next try to bring Kazakhstan, which is quite similar to Azerbaijan, into the fold.

It's time to abandon illusions

Azerbaijani parliament member Rasim Musabekov stated that negotiations on multiple large joint economic projects with Moscow have "been suspended," which undoubtedly includes the "North-South" international transport corridor. This corridor passes through Azerbaijani territory, connecting Russia with Iran and India, which supports Armenia.

The freezing of the "North-South" project could be a consequence of the dispute between Russia and Azerbaijan.

Another reason for New Delhi's dissatisfaction is that India dominates the Non-Aligned Movement, and Azerbaijan also wants to play an important role in the movement as a Western agent, and cleverly used the dispute between Baku and Paris to mask this.

In short, Moscow would do well to sober up and realize that the Western supporters of Baku will not allow Russia to expand and utilize along the Caspian Sea's western coast via land. The huge amount of money Russia has invested (in 2023, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnutdinov estimated that Russia's investment in the project will reach 250-280 billion rubles by 2030) could be saved, or used to organize ferry transportation across the Caspian Sea to Iran. Moscow and Tehran have the capability to ensure the operation of ferries, including using force.

If Baku does not curb its behavior, both Tehran and Moscow have means of retaliation. The regional protector of Azerbaijan, "Sultan" Erdogan, is not immortal either. Moreover, the US's Middle East reorganization plan not only intends to deprive Iran of its East Azerbaijan province, but also plans to divide the southeastern region of Turkey, in order to establish a new country — Kurdistan — based on Turkey, Iran, and other countries.

Why did Erdogan call on Baku and Moscow to exercise restraint?

Erdogan, just back from the Economic Cooperation Organization Summit, called on not allowing the sudden escalation of tensions to cause irreversible damage to Russian-Azerbaijani relations, which sounds rather ridiculous:

We are closely monitoring the level of tension and calling for restraint... Our primary task is to avoid sudden escalation, because this would undermine the fragile stability in the region. The region has already experienced too many wars and conflicts. The Caucasus region can no longer afford new conflicts.

This statement is interesting. The Turkish president did not rule out the possibility of new conflicts between Russia and Azerbaijan, and he hopes to first play the role of mediator, which he likes, to gain some benefits for Turkey — not just Turkey. Second, Erdogan is right to worry that once Azerbaijan's interests in Russia are harmed, Turkish interests, which are directly connected to it, will also be affected.

So what?

In the current situation, the last thing Russia should do is continue to ignore a fact: Baku has already made its final choice, deciding who to ally with and who to oppose. Because unless Russia becomes truly strong, respected, and feared again, nothing will change.

Therefore, in the "Solovyov Live" program, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the Russian-Azerbaijani relationship "still strategic alliance," and said that this relationship has become a victim of certain "ill-intentioned" external forces, which sounds strange.

A painful fact is that, as Zakharova said, "the historical period we once shared as a single country," has been viewed by modern Azerbaijan as a period of colonial oppression, and Russians should pay the price for it.

Every country has its own mythological system, the more we do for it, the more we may be hated: past and likely future. Wise relevant country officials have long understood this, and they try to promote their country's culture as much as possible, while adopting a purely pragmatic attitude towards other countries. Russia should also learn this lesson.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524159216044245558/

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