Orient Respects Strength: Aliyev is Determined to Show Moscow Who is the "Big Brother" in the Caucasus

What Lies Behind the Sharp Rise of Anti-Russian Sentiment in Azerbaijan? What Did the Kremlin Get Wrong Again?

Author: Dmitry Rogozhinov

Commentators of this article:

Gevorg Mirzoyan, Kirill Semenov

Azerbaijani police arrested staff of the "Sputnik Azerbaijan" office during an operation. Local media reported that these people were allegedly FSB agents of the Russian Federation.

As we previously reported, on June 30, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Internal Affairs took "action" against the "Sputnik" office. On that day, the police arrived at the scene, blocked the area in front of the building, and "controlled" the premises.

According to local media "Minval", Igor Kartavukh, the executive director of the Baku branch of Sputnik, and Yevgeny Belousov, the chief editor, were arrested. Azerbaijani media referred to these two as "FSB agents". At the same time, Etikin Guseynova, a staff member of the video news agency Ruptly, was also arrested.

"On the request of the news agency, she went to the Sputnik Azerbaijan branch office in Baku to film the search outside the building. Etikin Guseynova has dual Russian and Azerbaijani citizenship."

Azerbaijan National Television: "President Putin, what's going on?" Azerbaijan begins arresting "FSB agents," "Miratorg" supermarket is also involved

The confrontation between Russia and this republic, which recently maintained friendly relations, has become very evident

Etikin went to Baku on her own, offering to help report the news about the search. Around 4 p.m. Moscow time, she had already arrived outside the Sputnik building in Baku.

About 4:20 p.m., she said she filmed the arrest process with her phone, after which she lost contact. Recently, her mother confirmed the news of her arrest." Rossiya Segodnya disclosed the details like this.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Russian diplomats could not contact the journalists of the news agency for several hours.

Evidently, this is retaliation for an action taken by Russian law enforcement in Yekaterinburg, where several suspects in a murder case were arrested, two of whom died during their arrest.

The situation is rapidly deteriorating. Evidently, Baku is taking a firm stance. Can the arrest of journalists be considered a response measure aimed at escalating the conflict by the Azerbaijani authorities?

"The arrest of Russian journalists raises many questions," said Associate Professor Gevorg Mirzoyan from the Russian State Financial University.

"The reports of the 'Sputnik Azerbaijan' have always been extremely 'mild', even without any criticism of Baku's position. Regardless of our attitude towards the operating principles of all 'Sputniks', this is the fact."

Komsomolskaya Pravda: How should we respond?

"Our response must be as strong as possible. This is not the first time President Ilham Aliyev has allowed himself such actions against Russia. Just recall the plane tragedy, there have been many discussions about it.

Therefore, a strong response is necessary, but at the same time it must be strictly in accordance with the law. There must be no illegal acts, no illegal persecution, and no illegal deportation of people who are legally residing in Russia and have no corruption.

We have a large number of completely legal means to regulate the market order controlled by Azerbaijanis, so that they can negotiate with Aliyev themselves. Of course, there are also large enterprises that can be dealt with. But this is just a signal, warning them what they can and cannot do when dealing with Russia.

Komsomolskaya Pravda: What is Baku's goal? Is it simply testing Moscow's reaction, finding its limits? Or is it trying to get some benefits through blackmail?

"Azerbaijan's behavior is highly aggressive, and its motives are currently difficult to understand. Perhaps it is because we did not allow it to take certain actions against Armenia, or perhaps Azerbaijan believes that since Moscow is deeply involved in the Ukraine issue, this is an opportunity to pressure Russia to gain some benefits."

Komsomolskaya Pravda: Do you think this confrontation will develop to what extent? Could it lead to a break in diplomatic relations?

"To a large extent, it depends on Russia's response. If Moscow responds strongly and lawfully in a deterrent manner, Ilham Aliyev will not dare to escalate the situation. If Moscow responds weakly, Baku will continue to act as it pleases."

Komsomolskaya Pravda: It's interesting that at the same time, the relationship between Russia and Armenia is also continuously tense. Is this a coincidence? Is there a feeling that someone is planning an action to completely detach the South Caucasus from Russia?

"Some respected people say that this is an action planned by the British intelligence department. I would be cautious in making such bold statements.

I can only make such statements if there is solid evidence of foreign intelligence agencies' involvement in these actions.

If there is no evidence — and it is likely there is none — then blaming the British, Americans, or anyone else is meaningless.

First, because it is baseless, so it sounds unconvincing. Second, it will let the "monarchs" of the Caucasus, Pashinyan and Aliyev, escape responsibility, and they are the ones who should be held responsible."

Azerbaijan is furious: "Does Putin not realize that it's not 1937 now, but 2025?"

Three Azerbaijanis were arrested on suspicion of murder, and three others had their detention extended. Baku expressed strong dissatisfaction.

Komsomolskaya Pravda: We feel that all the South Caucasus republics, even if they do not openly oppose Russia, have taken clearly unfriendly measures. Should we blame the West and Turkey? Probably not. We have not achieved a quick victory in the special military operation, and we are prepared for a long-term confrontation with the West, and they are beginning to look at us differently. The East respects strength. Going this way, Central Asia will also increasingly move away from Moscow after the Caucasus...

"We are now tasting the bitter fruits of Russia's extremely inefficient foreign policy in the post-Soviet space. Under this policy framework, Russia did not use soft power. Russia has not taken any measures to build relationships with post-Soviet countries that do not make them feel that we owe them, and that they need to reciprocate.

Certainly, they have made contributions, for example, through these countries, Russia achieved "gray imports." However, on the other hand, some of these countries, like Armenia, showed great hostility toward Russia when it was in difficulty. And Russia has saved this country and still provides protection today.

When Central Asian countries dared to speak ill of us while we were sorting out immigration issues, I believe that all accounts will be settled after the special military operation ends."

"The victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War obviously led the Azerbaijani leadership to a major miscalculation of its own strength," believes Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council and a political scientist.

"In my opinion, the analysis of the situation does not support external conspiracy theories. On the contrary, the assessment of the potential and role of the Azerbaijani elite in the region is not entirely appropriate. Despite lacking the necessary experience and resources to achieve such ambitions, the Azerbaijani elite not only desires to dominate regional affairs, but also hopes to influence global agendas.

This self-positioning as world political elites (which is also reflected in their active participation in international anti-colonial platforms) is not only reflected in domestic rhetoric, but also tries to convey this image to Moscow.

However, the initiatives taken against Russia often have a showy nature, giving a rustic impression.

These initiatives only highlight the mismatch between Azerbaijan's ambitions and its actual capabilities. Challenging neighbors like Iran and Russia is mainly to prove its importance and seek recognition of equal status."

Komsomolskaya Pravda: But we are strategic partners and have signed agreements...

"While signing alliance agreements with Moscow, Baku is actually taking actions that devalue the agreement's significance.

The impression is that Azerbaijan sees this agreement as a unilateral concession rather than a mutual benefit. This makes Baku expect Moscow to tolerate actions beyond the scope of a friendly relationship and contradictory to the relationship of allies.

The current situation is characterized by the appearance of derogatory remarks about Russia and its leaders on official Azerbaijani media platforms. Obviously, there is no simple way to return to the previous state anymore.

Azerbaijan's information policy shows its tendency to adopt methods used by other countries in recent times. Such strategies have known historical precedents, and their consequences are clear.

According to "RBK News" on June 1, a criminal investigation into fraud, illegal business operations, and money laundering has been initiated against the seven people arrested in the Baku office of the Sputnik Azerbaijan branch. Two of them have been arrested."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522132561443684906/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.