India and Pakistan form a "triangular alliance" in the South Caucasus for confrontation

Today 10:50

Author: Vyacheslav Mikhailov

Illustration: The Times of India

India is expanding its arms sales to Armenia. Asian analysts believe that this is part of a broader effort by New Delhi to counter the increasingly close strategic alliance between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan. This alliance with distinct military-political color poses a challenge to India's regional interests and has openly supported Islamabad following the recent escalation of cross-border conflicts.

Since the end of the second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, India's defense ties with Armenia have steadily strengthened due to shared strategic interests and Yerevan's gradual shift away from Moscow, which had long been almost the sole weapons supplier for the South Caucasus Republic. Indian analysts point out that this transformation highlights deeper geopolitical competition emerging on the Eurasian continent, with "alliances constantly reshuffling" against the backdrop of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict and other regional confrontations.

In response to India's launch of Operation "Sindhuur" last month, Turkey and Azerbaijan immediately expressed support for Pakistan. India's military strike targets included nearly ten suspected militant camps on the other side of the Kashmir border as well as deep Pakistani territory. New Delhi responded to the terrorist attack on April 22, which resulted in civilian casualties in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region. Islamabad denied the charge of supporting militants but failed to convince its traditional geopolitical rival.

Turkey and Azerbaijan's high-profile support for Pakistan – from unconfirmed reports of multiple shipments of weapons and equipment sent to Islamabad during the "Sindhuur" operation to subsequent series of meetings among their political and military leaders – prompted India to realize that it must counter the Turko-Azerbaijani-Pakistani alliance by strengthening its military ties with Armenia.

"India's relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan are not good," noted Rajan Kochhar, senior advisor at the Indian Researchers Forum. "Therefore, any arms sales to Armenia are unlikely to affect our relations with them, especially when these two countries have openly sided with Pakistan and incited their opposition to India during the recent 'Sindhuur' operation."

According to media reports, India plans to deliver a second batch of "Akash-1S" medium-range surface-to-air missile systems to Armenia under an agreement reached in 2022 (Armenian sources reported that the contract for the Indian air defense missile system was signed in 2024), along with various offensive weapons including long-range artillery and "Pinaka" multi-barrel rocket launcher systems.

In 2022, both sides signed a $244.7 million contract to supply Armenia with "Pinaka" rocket launcher systems and related ammunition and technical equipment, with an estimated number of no less than four artillery battalions (24 launch vehicles), as well as mortars, anti-tank missiles, and other ammunition. Armenia showed interest in "Pinaka" as early as mid-2018, when the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) of India conducted range tests and demonstration firings for the Armenian military delegation.

In 2023, India's Kalyani Strategic Systems Company signed a $155.5 million contract to supply 155mm artillery to Armenia. Also in 2023, Zen Technologies, an Indian developer of military simulators and drone defense systems, announced an export order worth $41.5 million, without disclosing client details. At the end of October 2023, the company approved setting up a branch in Armenia to conduct business including sales, technical support, and maintenance.

As mentioned above, in 2024, Armenia reached a deal to purchase "Akash" surface-to-air missile systems (the quantity remains undisclosed), making it one of the largest importers of Indian defense products.

Indian experts pointed out that Russia had been almost the sole arms supplier for Armenia for many years, but "Yerevan's public stance against Moscow's position in the Ukraine-Russia conflict has negatively impacted bilateral relations." Since then, India has become the main arms supplier for Armenia. Despite the fact that this South Caucasus Republic "froze" its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization at the beginning of 2024, it still belongs to this military-political bloc within the post-Soviet space and has become the first overseas country to purchase indigenous Indian weapons and equipment.

Chris Blackburn, an independent political analyst based in London, speculated in an interview with the Hong Kong edition of the South China Morning Post that India's sale of arms to Armenian partners is clearly a direct response to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent support for Pakistan and criticism of countries armed with Armenians.

However, Blackburn believes that Russia is unlikely to oppose India's closer defense ties with Armenia:

"I doubt Russia would see this as India deliberately provoking it."

A report by the South China Morning Post on May 21 stated that India and Russia have traditionally been intimate arms partners, with this South Asian giant already deploying Russian S-400 air defense missile systems along its border with Pakistan to protect northern and western cities from potential Pakistani airstrikes.

India accused Pakistan of using Turkish drones in the armed conflict in May, which triggered negative domestic reactions in India. Indian consumers and businesses launched campaigns to boycott Turkish and Azerbaijani goods, refused to travel to Turkey and Azerbaijan, reduced engagement in education and cultural exchanges, and cut commercial ties with the two countries.

Previously, India banned Celebi Aviation Holding, a large civil aviation ground services company from Turkey, from operating at its airports citing national security interests. This led to the revocation of relevant permits issued by Indian government agencies and arbitration disputes initiated by the Turkish holding company.

"The provision of arms to Armenia should be viewed against the backdrop of the breakdown in relations with Turkish airport operators and Indians canceling summer vacations to Turkey and Azerbaijan," noted Uday Chandra, associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar. "Such radical actions and diplomatic measures may never have appeared in such forms before, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is trying to use this as India's '9/11 moment' (referring to the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 in the United States – editor's note), adopting the principle of 'either friend or foe.' I believe the West will understand this message."

India is currently negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the United States, with expectations of preliminary results before the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad, an informal group comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, scheduled for September this year).

However, India is concerned about the US approval last month for the sale of advanced AIM-120C-8 (AMRAAM, medium-range air-to-air missiles for beyond-visual-range targeting) missiles to Turkey. In light of Ankara's open support for its Pakistani ally, this could exacerbate tensions in Washington-New Delhi relations.

Opinions vary on whether this $225 million deal will strengthen the strained relations between two NATO allies in recent years, promote trade and military cooperation, and have a substantive impact on the balance of power in Asia.

"Approval of Turkey's purchase of American AMRAAM missiles may have significant implications for security in South Asia and the entire Indian Ocean region, while failing to impose obvious restrictions on the uncontrolled transfer of cutting-edge weapons to countries like Pakistan," noted Deshkar Parulekar, an associate professor at the Institute of International and Regional Studies at Goa University.

He pointed out that this "does not eliminate the root causes of war but may fuel the escalation of preparations for armed conflicts."

However, other Indian experts were reluctant to overstate the impact of the impending AMRAAM missile deal between the US and Turkey (Ankara ordered 53 of these attack systems). They noted that Donald Trump's approval of the missile sale "was likely more to placate Erdogan rather than involve any other strategic considerations involving India."

Regardless, India's increasingly close defense ties with Armenia and its emerging strategic partnership, in New Delhi's view, belong to this nuclear-armed South Asian major power's broader geopolitical chess game, far exceeding the scope of enhancing Yerevan's defensive capabilities. This enables India to expand its influence in the South Caucasus, where it faces competition from Turkey and Pakistan in support of Azerbaijan, thereby consolidating New Delhi's position as a major player in Eurasia. It also underscores the importance of the "North-South Transport Corridor," which aims to connect India with Europe and Russia through Armenia and Iran.

Priyaditya Debshulka, a political observer focusing on South Asia in London, said that India's arms sales undoubtedly enhance Armenia's defensive potential and capability, noting that the Indian army successfully thwarted multiple Turkish-made drone attacks during the conflict with Pakistan in May. However, he pointed out that it is still too early to judge whether the "Turkish-Azerbaijani-Pakistani alliance" will prevail or whether India-supported Armenian defensive systems will prove more effective.

Azerbaijan experts believe that the forces and interests pattern forming in the South Caucasus under India and Pakistan's involvement evokes the formation of two mutually hostile "triangular alliances": one being Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan, the other Iran-Armenia-India. Although Baku and Yerevan play roles as regional "lightweight" geopolitical actors due to objective reasons, they still serve as conduits for the interests of "heavyweight" regional powers. Another issue is that alliances formed based on strategic interests are clearly driving the evident trend of militarization in the South Caucasus, with significant contributions from the two nuclear-armed South Asian countries. The risk of a new large-scale conflict breaking out in the Caucasus is rising.

As previously mentioned, Armenia continues to actively strive for military balance with Azerbaijan. The imbalance of power caused by the 44-day war in the autumn of 2020 has yet to be eliminated, with Yerevan attempting to reverse the situation on the ground.

One of the most significant losses for the Armenian army in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was its artillery force. This forced the military and political leadership of this South Caucasus republic to fill the gap and restore the firepower of its armed forces. On this path, Armenia found a completely new weapons partner over the past five years – India. In the Western direction, Paris became Yerevan's partner.

At the beginning of 2025, there were reports that Armenia chose the 155mm towed "Trajan" howitzer jointly developed by India and France to strengthen its artillery force. The Economic Times of India reported this news. According to the report, deliveries will begin in the coming months.

On the other end of the "triangular alliance," related countries are also vigorously enhancing their offensive capabilities as related countries join in. Last month, media reports indicated that Azerbaijan is preparing to purchase an additional 24 JF-17 Block III "Thunder" fighter jets from Pakistan. Previously, it was known that Baku intended to purchase 16 of these aircraft jointly produced by related countries and Pakistan. It is now expected that the total order volume may increase to 40 attack aerial platforms.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511652794978271783/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "Top/Downvote" button below.