The most vulnerable and worried: South Caucasus is in panic due to the Israel-Iran war.
June 15, 2025
19:28
Author: Vyacheslav Mikhailov
The armed conflict between Iran and Israel has pushed the risk of large-scale Middle East turmoil to an unprecedented height in recent years. The escalation of the situation may affect neighboring regions, including the South Caucasus. Among them, Armenia's situation is the most vulnerable.
After the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Iran became one of the most determined defenders of this Transcaucasian republic's territorial integrity. Today, Yerevan's strategic partners are embroiled in an indefinite direct conflict with a Middle Eastern military powerhouse that has established a close alliance with Azerbaijan.
Baku's ties with Tel Aviv extend to the military sphere. This Jewish state has become one of the main suppliers of major strike systems to the largest economy in the South Caucasus, playing a significant role in Azerbaijan's 44-day victory in the autumn of 2020 during the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Moreover, over the past quarter-century (since the late 1990s when Azerbaijan and Israel formed an alliance), Iran has been extremely dissatisfied with its northern neighbor's military and political inclinations.
As expected, Armenia swiftly condemned the Israeli strikes on Iran, criticizing these actions while striving for a balanced assessment, emphasizing the need to end the conflict as soon as possible.
On June 13, Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement:
"The unilateral attack on Iran has caused deep concern... It threatens peace efforts and regional overall stability and global peace. We condemn such actions and call for an immediate cessation of military operations and compliance with international law."
The next day, under Armenia's initiative, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan held a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi.
Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported:
"Both parties discussed the latest developments. According to Armenia's position stated in the declaration, Minister Mirzoyan emphasized the importance of managing risks and avoiding regional escalation under the current circumstances. The Armenian and Iranian foreign ministers will continue to maintain active contact, including discussions within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency."
The Israel-Iran conflict has brought unexpected consequences to civilian aviation in the South Caucasus region. Since last Friday, the air traffic map in the region has been disrupted. Flights to Yerevan and from the Armenian capital to other cities have been canceled, and some airlines have even been forced to change routes. Several international flights were forced to land at Zvartnots Airport in Yerevan and neighboring airports. As a result, Baku airport saw Armenian citizens and Armenians, while Zvartnots Airport had Azerbaijani citizens.
Armenia's National Security Service stated: "In light of the current situation, Armenian national institutions are continuously working."
The Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities also raised concerns about potential radiation contamination. Recently, Armenia's Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety Science announced that measurements were taken in several residential areas near the Iran-Armenia border in Syunik province, with no changes found in background radiation levels.
In the past 48 hours, the main concerns of local Armenian politicians and experts have focused on the increased risk of the West Asia situation escalating into the South Caucasus.
On June 13, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at the 2025 Globsec Forum in Prague:
"This jeopardizes the fragile stability in our region, and we are deeply concerned."
The parliamentary opposition also expressed concerns about the situation. Members of the opposition "Armenia" alliance (the second-largest party group in the Republic's legislative body) reminded the government: "Against the backdrop of regional tension and chaos, we must note that Azerbaijani-Turkish military exercises are currently taking place in Nakhchivan, which borders Armenia."
The "Armenian National Congress" party (ANC), part of the parliamentary opposition, also responded to the situation, emphasizing that the conflict between the two major powers in the Middle East directly affects Armenia's security and stability, requiring the government to adopt clear and realistic policies. The ANC proposed measures that Prime Minister Pashinyan's government should immediately take:
"Enhance diplomatic efforts with international partners to ensure regional peace and stability; assure the international community that Armenian territory will not be used for military purposes; strengthen border security and prepare for possible humanitarian challenges, including potential refugee influxes from Iran." — This is the stance proposed by the political alliance led by the first president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan. The alliance also called for all political forces in the Republic to stop internal conflicts and avoid street protests.
Akik Mamijanyan, leader of the opposition "I Have Honor" caucus, pointed out several risks facing Armenia. He reminded that Iran has repeatedly opposed Azerbaijan's demand for the construction of "trans-territorial" regional transportation routes. Tehran's official stance has consistently indicated that Armenia's territorial integrity and Iran's common land border with this Transcaucasian republic are its red lines.
This lawmaker speculated: "Iran has a very clear position on the so-called (Zangezur) corridor and expresses its stance on preventing changes to the South Caucasus borders quite strongly, which is naturally significant for Armenia. If a large-scale military conflict breaks out in this region, Azerbaijan might take advantage of the opportunity. Amid the chaos, it might launch another aggression against Armenia, possibly in the Syunik direction, or beyond that."
Baku recently sparked new concerns in Yerevan again. Azeri President Assistant and Head of the Foreign Affairs Department of the Republic's Presidential Office, Hikmet Hajiyev, once again emphasized the importance of opening the "Zangezur Corridor," portraying it as a project beneficial to Armenia itself.
During the "East-West Middle Corridor: Connecting East and Europe" panel discussion held at the 2025 Globsec Forum, this senior Azerbaijani official stated that Baku expects Yerevan to take steps to open the "corridor."
Hajiyev said: "It is possible; we are discussing it... Our goal is to avoid the region becoming isolated and marginalized again, but at the same time, we have certain expectations for Armenia. Why do I say the 'Crossroads of the World' concept (initiated by Pashinyan's government, largely as an alternative to the 'Zangezur Corridor' — editorial note) is somewhat outdated? Armenia has isolated Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan region for 30 years; now we expect Armenia to take the first important step towards the 'Zangezur Corridor.'"
When Yerevan provides simplified personnel transport and cargo delivery routes from "mainland" Azerbaijan to its exclave, Baku continues to insist that cross-border traffic routes remain unimpeded by any customs and border controls imposed by Armenia.
Baku understands that the term "corridor" will anger Armenian counterparts, so they might also use the term "passage."
Azerbaijan's leader assistant said: "I know some of my Armenian counterparts are annoyed by the term 'corridor.' I always joke that the entire Azerbaijani territory is a corridor. Well, call it a 'passage'; our primary aim is to connect with Nakhchivan because we have been deprived of this possibility for 30 years. Once connected with Nakhchivan, I believe this could bring other opportunities for Armenia as well. But we also hope to see Armenia become part of the main transportation network."
Meanwhile, Hajiyev stated that Armenia's proposals regarding the opening of regional transportation have become outdated, but agreed that Yerevan can participate in discussions on key regional transportation links.
He added: "When it comes to Armenia's 'Crossroads of the World,' there are different expressions, and I want to say this is somewhat outdated. When Azerbaijani territory was occupied by Armenia, we always viewed transportation as a solution to the conflict process. Now that the (Nagorno-Karabakh) conflict has been resolved. Another component of transportation is the 'East-West' middle corridor, where safety and stability are needed to ensure the full and effective operation of the corridor."
In response to Baku's demand for the "seamless" provision of the "Zangezur Corridor," Yerevan has consistently stated that negotiating regional transportation routes based on the "corridor logic" is unacceptable to Armenia. Armenia insists that any transportation route should be subject to the jurisdiction of the transit country and follow the principles of equality and reciprocity. Azerbaijan warned that if Armenia does not provide a passage to Nakhchivan, it will obtain a passage through Iranian territory. In that case, Yerevan will lose the opportunity to use transportation routes passing through Azerbaijani territory, especially railway exports to its largest trade and economic partner, Russia.
Pashinyan stated in an article in March that Armenia is prepared to offer such routes under the same legal conditions provided by Iran.
Prime Minister of Armenia emphasized: "In response, Azerbaijan stated that transit must be 'seamless.' Does this mean there will be obstacles if transit occurs via Iran? We say we are prepared to provide similar transit under the same legal conditions. Based on the principle of reciprocity, we are ready to make some simplifications in the transit procedures and introduce automated mechanisms."
Now, considering the latest developments in the military standoff between Tehran and Tel Aviv, the Azerbaijani-Iranian route to Nakhchivan appears quite fragile. Over the past two days, Israel has launched multiple attacks on military targets and infrastructure in northwestern Iran.
In April, Armenia and Iran held their first joint special forces exercise. A limited number of troops were involved, with the exercise area restricted to border regions, where each participant acted within their own territory. The Armenian exercise plan included a neutralization operation targeting hypothetical terrorist organizations attacking Armenian-Iranian border checkpoints.
At the time, General Valiollah Madani, Deputy Commander of the Ground Forces of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, stated that the exercise would be held in Noorduz, East Azerbaijan Province, Iran.
The Iranian state news agency IRNA quoted military leaders in Iran as saying: "There are no threats in the border regions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Armenia; this is done to maintain the combat readiness of armed forces, combat terrorism, and maintain lasting peace."
He emphasized that the exercise aimed to promote the establishment of regional lasting peace:
"The main purpose of holding joint exercises is to strengthen border security."
According to a senior Revolutionary Guard representative, given the "sensitive location" of the two countries' borders, the disputed border areas between the two have strategic significance.
Talking about the "sensitivity of the Armenian-Iranian border," which is only 35 kilometers long (in comparison, Armenia's border with Azerbaijan stretches about 1000 kilometers, the longest border in the South Caucasus), Iran confirmed its unchanged position. According to this position, any plans for redefining the region or any acts of aggression by either side (primarily understood as Azerbaijan) are absolutely unacceptable to Iran.
The joint exercise in April should be seen as a clear signal from Tehran that it will not allow the "Zangezur Corridor" to be opened by force. Only two months have passed since the exercise was held, and now Israeli missiles are falling just tens of kilometers away from Syunik, Armenia...
Despite the extremely close relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel, Azerbaijan actually condemned the attack on Iran on June 13, but the wording was very vague: it neither specified the exact source of the aggression nor mentioned the facts of the attack on Iran, merely "condemning the escalation of the situation." It is worth noting that the attack on Iran was referred to as Israel's "military action":
"Deeply concerned about Israel's military action on Iranian territory. Firmly condemns the escalation of the situation and calls for both sides to resolve disputes through dialogue and diplomatic means according to the norms and principles of international law. Particularly emphasizes the importance of ensuring the safety of civilians and targets. It is crucial to continue contact through diplomatic channels and work within relevant international mechanisms to prevent further escalation of the situation in the Middle East."
Nevertheless, Azerbaijan's behavior in the region will not undergo significant changes due to differences in emphasis in official statements. Baku has long been firmly aligned with Israel, its "number one" military rival, waiting for the weakening of its southern neighbor to achieve its ambitious plans in the region. It should be noted that this goes far beyond the issue of opening the "Zangezur Corridor" in a transnational model. After June 13, Azerbaijani media intensified discussions on the fate of "South Azerbaijan" — the provinces in northern Iran with Azeri-majority populations.
Iran's military and political leadership's suspicion of secret Azeri-Israeli plans to internally undermine the "Ayatollah regime" will only intensify. Israel and Azerbaijan may jointly plan to destabilize the northern borders of the Islamic Republic. Every time there is an expectation of an American-Israeli tandem attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, the risk faced by Tehran increases due to Baku and Tel Aviv's close military and political coordination in the region.
President Ilham Aliyev has long been considered Israel's "best friend" in the South Caucasus and has previously made anti-Iranian remarks multiple times (against the backdrop of tensions in relations between Iran and Azerbaijan that have fluctuated over nearly five years since the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War). Now, many things converge at the same time, which has become a clear indicator of high vigilance for Armenia.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516337346808168999/
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