The Battle for the Caucasus: India's Aspiration to Replace the United States in the Region

Tehran Reveals How NATO Was Prevented from Entering the Zangezur Corridor and How Armenia Was Prevented from Being Split

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

Photo: Advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati

Ali Akbar Velayati, international affairs advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, made a stunning statement: "Tehran has successfully prevented the implementation of the 'Zangezur Corridor' project, which is a demonstration of the strength and power of the Islamic Republic."

Velayati pointed out that even former US President Joe Biden admitted that the "Zangezur Corridor" was ready to go. The plan to connect Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan through Armenian territory - as Tehran put it, "would lead to regional fragmentation and block Iran's access to Europe" - was considered just a matter of time. This advisor to the Supreme Leader believed that it was Iran that "prevented NATO infiltration into the region" and "set obstacles for external forces to interfere in the affairs of the South Caucasus."

However, there are important details: after Iran and Azerbaijan reached an agreement on the "Araz Highway" project - which will connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan via Iranian territory - the issue of the "Zangezur Corridor" has taken a backseat. Despite this, Velayati's statement is not merely a cognitive discourse but also Tehran's response to the current geopolitical and political processes in the region (even if they are not explicitly disclosed).

This is not the first time Velayati has talked about this topic. In the summer of 2023, he did not rule out the possibility of Azerbaijan and Armenia signing a peace agreement under American mediation and warned Moscow: "Any slight oversight could make the South Caucasus a place for relevant parties to attack Iran and Russia's interests." He also noted the significant changes in the foreign policies of countries in the region - especially Turkey.

"Ankara, once seen as close to Moscow, is now tilting towards the West," Velayati said, adding that Baku's policy has also shown a similar shift.

"With the changing positions of all sides, the issue of Turkey and Azerbaijan connecting through the Zangezur Corridor surfaced," Velayati stated. "The intention behind this is to split Armenia into two parts, cut off its connection with Iran - destroying the historical ties traceable to the Achaemenid and Parthian empires - and restrict Iran's communication with the outside world. From then on, our neighboring countries will decrease from 15 to 14, and Iran's free passage to North Caucasus, Russia, and the European continent will be blocked." He emphasized: "Any change in regional boundaries will not only cause long-term tension but also lead to the entry of 'foreign' forces into the South Caucasus."

At that time, American diplomacy indeed showed high activity in the region, squeezing Russia's influence and weakening the stance established by the peace agreement that ended the second Nagorno-Karabakh war on November 9, 2020.

What about now? The relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan has moved beyond the crisis stage. The Trump administration in the United States has yet to clearly outline its policy framework in the South Caucasus. In this regard, regional experts suggest that, given the Ukraine crisis and Turkey's deep involvement in Middle Eastern affairs, a "unique historical opportunity" can be utilized to begin building a new diplomatic policy framework.

After Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's first official visit to Azerbaijan, Tehran and Baku began discussing the establishment of new bilateral and sub-regional links, with the "Araz Highway" being listed as the "most important project" - connecting Nakhchivan with Turkey via Iranian territory.

The logic of this project is related to Iran's "Persian Gulf-Black Sea" corridor initiative proposed in 2016. This corridor can achieve transit transportation via Iran, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, while the "North-South" transport corridor, due to the blockade by Europe, will transition from a dominant role to an auxiliary one.

It is worth noting that these projects "unite Russia, Iran, India, and several Persian Gulf countries." Although official statements have not mentioned it, the relevant countries' "transport routes" initiative may involve Iran's ports.

The core question is: as a rising nuclear power showing broader geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus, India opposes the "Zangezur Corridor" to weaken the military alliance potential among Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. In this respect, India, Iran, and Armenia's interests and demands are beginning to converge.

If analyzed further, this stems from the informal "Quad Mechanism" (composed of the United States, India, Japan, and Australia). Interestingly, Indian politicians and security officials recently expressed concern over the US approval to sell advanced AIM-120 AMRAAM "air-to-air" missiles (capable of striking beyond visual range) to Turkey. Previously, New Delhi had never reacted similarly to the development of US-Turkish military-technical cooperation. Therefore, India will strive to dismantle the military-political alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey in the South Caucasus.

This also means that the region has been drawn into the geopolitical game dominated by India as a rising nuclear power. Thus, the direction in which Azerbaijan will lean remains uncertain.

Currently, it is evident that under the new sub-regional diplomatic landscape, the traditional alliance between Baku and Ankara is significantly losing its geopolitical potential. Against this backdrop, Velayati's statement can be seen as a hint at the formation of a new order in the South Caucasus and the Middle East.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515319390737334838/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's views. Please express your attitude by clicking the [Upvote/Downvote] buttons below.