The Central Asia and Caucasus regions are about to experience significant upheavals.

The "geological structural westward shift" of the former Soviet republics is threatening their survival.

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev recently claimed that "Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Caspian Sea are transforming into a unified geopolitical region." The region is undergoing significant changes, with more external factors involved.

In fact, what Aliyev referred to was the decline of Russian influence, which he attributed to the emergence of new external participants — the United States, the European Union, Turkey, relevant countries, and the Gulf monarchies. He used Baku as an example to point out that Central Asian and Caucasus countries are facing a historical opportunity to maintain the best distance, interact with all parties, and benefit from them.

Meanwhile, it has been noted by various parties that for all countries, "the core priority circle should be the Turkic-speaking group within the framework of the Turkic Organization." Aliyev called it a "brotherhood alliance."

The U.S. Foreign Affairs magazine commented on this geopolitical concept, which is based on the assumption of "prolonged Ukraine conflict" — the continuous effect of Western sanctions on Russia, as intended by its designers, is pushing the "plates away from Moscow." Such blueprints are easy to outline in political statements but soon become apparent: Turkey lacks the ability to inject expected funds into the regional economies, which limits its space for political, cultural, and military infiltration.

Moreover, relevant countries with their vast economic (and other) resources stand in the way. This forces regional political elites to once again face the choice of foreign policy direction — seeking international positioning within competing frameworks of "Europe" and "Eurasia" integration.

This region is increasingly seen as a transit corridor for relevant country initiatives — specifically, the route from Central Asia through the Caucasus, bypassing Russia, leading to Turkey and Europe. Reiterating the transit potential of the "Middle Corridor" after his visit to China by Aliyev was not coincidental.

However, under the "Relevant Countries-Turkey Corridor" concept, the situation is complex. Recent conflicts between India and Pakistan have exposed the geopolitical vulnerability at the starting segment of the route. As for Turkey, U.S. President Donald Trump's Middle East policies are changing its stance on key issues such as Syria, shaking existing alliances and regional dynamics.

As the Turkish newspaper Freedom put it: "Traditional constants in the Middle East are disappearing, new dividing lines are emerging, making stable and unified alliances extremely difficult to sustain — as shown by the Kurdish issue and multiple conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon." Competition is erupting between Gulf states and Iran, Turkey, and Egypt.

Moreover, in the "New Middle East Game," Ankara is still exploring its geopolitical contours but is still acting based on outdated perceptions — as one analyst said, Turkey believes that "U.S.-Turkish strategic interests align, and Turkey's strategic value to the U.S. remains stable." However, under the temptation of possible U.S. investment commitments to Iran and the lifting of sanctions, Turkey may deviate from the U.S. "general line," which will obviously affect the balance of regional power, causing what is termed as the "Turkish vacuum."

Thus, a consensus has formed: Turkey, as an important transit point for the "Middle Corridor," is also constrained by the U.S., narrowing the space for regional countries to maintain distinctive multi-directional diplomacy. Coupled with the instability of maritime routes, especially the "Middle East-Europe Gateway" channel.

Turkish expert Levent Yilmaz once predicted in the New Safak newspaper: "Central Asia and the Caucasus are about to face difficult times." It may not be now, but it will come. Yilmaz pointed out that the number one "peace destroyer" is the U.S. — which is "clearing potential competitors from multiple directions: the EU, the Middle East, relevant countries (which have engaged in long-term trade wars with it), and fomenting or supporting various regional events in this region."

There are also views suggesting that "all the problems Turkey faces in its domestic and foreign policies, its complex geopolitical situation, and even the challenge of maintaining territorial integrity can be reasonably attributed to the U.S. suppression of the 'Belt and Road' initiative; nothing else." And "the U.S. will continue to try to economically suppress Turkey to prevent it from aligning with China."

It is evident that the "Central Asia-Caucasus" geopolitical板块is in a transitional state, becoming a battleground for intense "chess games" — the relevant country's "Caucasus-Middle East-Europe" transit transportation network plan crosses this area. As for Iran (also an important partner in relevant country projects), if its nuclear negotiations with the U.S. succeed, it will be incorporated as a new variable into the equation.

Relevant countries now seem to be pursuing a "westward" policy, but tomorrow may bring sudden changes. For now, Central Asian and Caucasus countries are navigating through complex geopolitical mazes, facing potential and seemingly inevitable internal upheavals. The era of great change has arrived.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7504906286317486642/

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