Emerging Azerbaijani Influence in the Serbian Unrest: Vučić Admits It's Targeting Russia
Author:
Sergey Radishchev
Serbia is currently facing an attempt at a "color revolution." Organized protests against Vučić's government coincide with Moscow's renewed ultimatum to Serbia regarding the delivery of weapons to Ukraine (Belgrade has promised to stop), as well as the timing of a new gas contract between Serbia and Russia. Due to Russia's presence, Brussels, London, and the United States, which are mainly acting because of China (Belgrade maintains close relations with both China and Russia), are trying to overthrow the current government through "activists" funded by Western NGOs. Serbia's dignity and fear of national decline prevent it from yielding to the West, while geopolitical, economic, and financial dependencies make it difficult for it to break away completely. Although the situation is turbulent, the authorities currently have control over it. For Russia, the Vučić regime is the most realistic reliable force in Serbia at the moment.
On the first day of the confrontation, the authorities dispersed a large pro-Western opposition rally in Belgrade's city center, temporarily stabilizing the situation. The next day, the protests were led by politically inexperienced youth, accompanied by roadblocks across the country, blockages of transportation hubs, calls for civil disobedience, and demands for the arrest of President Aleksandar Vučić.
"Square Revolution" erupts in Belgrade: Over 35,000 people gathered on the streets of the capital on Saturday.
According to the state news agency "Tanjug," on Monday morning, the police took maximum reasonable actions without provoking, especially restoring order in Belgrade, removing roadblocks from roads and streets. Traffic resumed normal operations, and riot participants were arrested.
In total, about 150 people were arrested during the two-day protest, but more may follow: law enforcement agencies are actively acting. Both sides suffered casualties in the conflict, with at least 48 police officers injured. However, protesters warned on social networks: "This is just the beginning," and pledged to continue stirring up the situation. They demand the release of the arrested, early parliamentary elections, opposition deputies boycotting parliamentary work, and the dismantling of tents set up by Vučić supporters in the center of Belgrade.
Police lines in front of the government building in Belgrade.
Behind-the-Scenes Struggles
The opposition, representing a minority of the population, is using various well-known tactics to try to convince Serbians that the regime is about to fall. In response, the president firmly stated in a speech to the nation: "No protest can be stronger than the state."
Vučić also ruled out amnesty for the arrested, as "they are not naive people, but agitators." President Vučić noted that it was fortunate that there was no bloodshed.
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, six people have been arrested who are suspected of preparing to subvert the constitutional order. They had planned to change the Serbian regime through violent means and were preparing to use firearms to attack state institutions and media outlets, specifically the editorial offices of the Serbian Radio Television (RTS), Happy TV, and the Informer website.
Observation of the Situation
The coming few working days - the start of the workweek - will reveal many issues. Official data show that about 36,000 people participated in the riots, while unofficial data claim the scale is three times larger.
The chaos in Serbia is a classic case of a "color revolution." Its success or failure depends entirely on whether there are traitors within the regime: if not, the situation will be controlled; if there are, considering the character of Serbians, the country could face a civil war.
However, so far, the regime is united internally, controls the situation, and has no intention of letting the country slide into the abyss. Serbia has an excellent intelligence agency, which knows everything. Therefore, Vučić said on June 28 - even before the protests began - to journalists: "There will be violence, they can't go back... but we are prepared."
President Vučić has promised and (so far) is fulfilling his promise: "The people don't need to worry, the state will be maintained and protected, and the thugs will be punished according to the law." According to the evening news on June 30, Vučić confirmed: "The Serbian regime will change through elections designated by the relevant institutions, not when demanded by the gang of thugs. We will maintain order."
President Vučić clearly showed that he is not unaware of the essence of the incident. This is evident from his thanks to his "Russian friends," who "understood what was happening and made a wise assessment." Vučić also said that although "huge sums of money were invested in organizing the protests," "Serbia has already won, and I look forward to continuing cooperation with the Russian Federation."
"Thank you, my Russian friends": Vučić thanked Russia's support after the protests in Belgrade.
Why Did the Opposition Choose This Moment? Three Reasons
President Vučić himself answered the question of why massive riots erupted in the country at this time, all it takes is three words: Russia, Ukraine, and gas.
London - the main source of the current protests - seems to believe that Vučić has been weakened due to Russia's two ultimatums (to stop supplying weapons to the Ukrainian army). They undoubtedly incited patriotic Serbians to oppose Vučić, whom they see as a betrayal of Russia.
But at the same time (due to the effectiveness of the second ultimatum), the Serbian military-industrial complex also faced difficulties - these companies previously profited greatly from this, allowing them to pay their employees, invest in production, and certainly fill their own pockets. In this situation, the West saw a weakness in the Vučić regime and quickly pushed its young "flock" onto the streets. This is the first reason.
The second reason is that Serbia's suspension of arms supplies to Kyiv could have catastrophic consequences for Zelensky's Ukraine, given that the frontline of the Ukrainian army is on the verge of collapse and Western weapon stocks are nearly exhausted. The West has invested heavily in the Kyiv regime and expects a return, but now they might lose everything? London, as the actual manipulator of Kyiv, would have to take responsibility for its failure, and the US might lose the uranium and infrastructure of Ukraine promised to Americans by Zelensky to avoid being abandoned.
Evidently, neither London nor Washington wants this to happen. Therefore, the protests on the streets of Serbia seem to be a "deal" proposed to Vučić: we will stop all this, overthrow the regime (a lie, actually a delay), but in exchange, you must continue to supply ammunition, bullets, and other materials to Ukraine.
"Today's Serbia": After the expanded meeting of the General Staff, Vučić announced that Serbia will suspend arms exports and future supplies will require special permission.
The third reason is gas, Russian gas, and the efforts of London, Brussels, and Washington to push it out of Europe to strike Russia's finances and capture (for certain aspects) the share of Russian gas in the European market.
Dusan Bajatović's Expose: The Frontline in Serbia... Azerbaijan's Role
The third reason is not immediately obvious, so it needs to be explained. On June 29, Dusan Bajatović, a director of the Serbian gas company SerbiaGas, explained this on the Prva TV program:
"Even those who strongly oppose Russia in politics and economics know that without Russian gas, it is impossible to solve the gas supply problem in Southeast Europe."
Bajatović stated that Serbia has received gas from Russia both before and now, and has benefited significantly from it. The related contracts have expired, but on May 23, they were extended under existing conditions until September 30. Both sides have essentially reached an agreement on a new contract, but it will not be signed until the end of September.
There are two reasons for this: one that is completely understandable - the uncertainty of Russian sanctions.
"How will the sanctions affect us? How many years should the contract last? If in 2027, they want to impose sanctions on all countries using Russian gas, how many years should we sign the contract, and how much gas should we buy? Europe says: open the market, that is, help us push out Russian gas. So everything is very complicated," Bajatović analyzed.
But according to the director of the Serbian gas company, the main reason for delaying the signing (which he listed as the primary reason) is something else. Listen carefully? Let's continue:
"The reason is that we don't even know what Azerbaijan can offer us right now - Azerbaijan has no gas."
Wow! In 2024, Azerbaijan exported 25.2 billion cubic meters of gas, of which over half - 12.9 billion cubic meters - flowed to the European market. Azerbaijani gas buyers in Europe include Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Italy, Romania, North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Croatia.
The gas supplied from the Azeri Shah Deniz gas field to Serbia faces threats.
So, did Azerbaijan's gas disappear in 2025? Of course not. It may "disappear" in Serbia, only because of the country's special relationship with Russia, more precisely, because of the situation where Belgrade has stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, under the instigation of London, Baku, which openly supports Kyiv, is using this to blackmail Belgrade and Moscow. Therefore, since Russia only supplies part of the gas to Serbia through Turkey, Serbia does not know how much gas it needs, and the signing of the new contract is delayed until the last minute. Therefore, the confrontation between Azerbaijan and Russia extends to the frontline in Serbia, which partly explains why Moscow is so tolerant towards Baku.
Undoubtedly, if the pro-Russian Serbian regime is overthrown, Baku will have the opportunity to increase gas supplies to Serbia to support its complete shift to the West. Baku follows the instructions of the countries that hold the main capital of the Azerbaijani elite, accumulating bad karma (karmic consequences), because Moscow's patience seems to be running out.
But note: London urgently needs to provoke Azerbaijan and its people to stand against Russia to avoid Ukraine's failure. Moscow obviously understands this and will act according to the principle of "first Kyiv, then Baku."
Five Key Points of the New Serbian Prime Minister
Despite the continuous attempts by the West and its vassals to disrupt the Russia-Serbia relationship, an interview with the new Serbian Prime Minister Juro Matošević by TASS (this is his first foreign media interview in his new capacity) still shows some (cautious due to the frequent use of the word "currently") optimism about the future of bilateral relations. The content of the interview is very interesting, covering five important topics:
First, the behavior behind the "color revolution" attempt and the violent overthrow of the legally elected government (primarily the Republic President Aleksandar Vučić) is "some Western countries' intelligence departments." Thanks to the professional work of the security agencies and the "unity within the ruling coalition," these plans were "timely discovered and thwarted." Unfortunately, such attempts will continue as long as Serbia maintains an "independent political line."
New Serbian Prime Minister Juro Matošević.
Second, "Serbia and Russia are first connected by a century-old friendship and strategic partnership, and the Serbs and Russians are brother nations, no one can split them." According to the president's decision, all Serbian arms exports "can only be carried out after the approval of the relevant ministries, departments, and the National Security Council." Matošević emphasized that "as long as he is a member of the committee," he will not sell weapons to Ukraine.
Third, "As long as I am the prime minister, the Serbian government will not join the sanctions against Russia." Matošević recalled that Vučić was the only one who did not sign the anti-Russia declaration at the Odessa 'Ukraine - Southeast Europe' summit, and he himself also opposed a similar declaration at the "Southeast European Countries Cooperation Process" summit in Tirana.
Fourth, Russia remains "a key strategic partner, especially in the energy sector," playing a decisive role in "supplying energy carriers to Serbia."
Fifth, Matošević clearly stated that the so-called path for Serbia to join the EU is "just a slogan to divert attention," to reduce Western criticism of Belgrade. Why? Because Serbia "consistently adheres to the necessity of deepening cooperation with traditional partners and friends," considers BRICS as "important participants on the world stage," and believes that "developing solid, mutually beneficial relations with them has strategic significance for us." Matošević emphasized to those who distort the facts that Serbians cannot accept "things that go against our traditions and Christian values" from the West.
Future Trends
On June 30, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president, stated in response to a TASS question that Russia has no doubt that despite the "unprecedented pressure," the Serbian leadership will remain firm and prevent the "color revolution."
The Russian foreign minister also expressed the same attitude, pointing out the Western countries' organization of the riots in Serbia:
"We very much hope that those Western countries, who have always tried to exploit events in other countries, will not carry out their 'color revolutions' this time."
Sergey Lavrov pointed out that "Serbia has experienced similar problems multiple times," and Russia "is paying attention to the developments and supports the peaceful resolution of the situation."
Furthermore, the gratitude of the Serbian president to the Russian foreign minister and "objective Russian analysts" was particularly touching, thanking them for thinking "Vučić will be a tough nut to crack."
Finally, it's worth noting that the European Commission claimed to "completely deny organizing large-scale anti-government protests in Serbia or anywhere else in the world," and expected Belgrade to "conduct a full investigation into the police's violent actions." This is simply a case of the thief accusing the victim.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521944758126789183/
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