The New Middle East War May Be Initiated by the J-10C or the Russian MiG-35
Now, Israeli aircraft are flying unimpeded over Tehran, and the only ones who can stop this are Moscow and related countries
Author: Sergey Iseinko
Photo: J-10C Fighter Jet
It seems that very few people in the world would doubt that the current ceasefire between Israel and Iran is fragile and temporary. After all, the 12-day destructive war that just ended did not resolve any of the fundamental issues that led to the outbreak of the war.
However, a series of recent statements from the leadership of the Israeli Defense Forces have revealed that the possibility of the conflict resuming very soon is high. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz first stated that he has ordered the swift development of a "coercion" plan against Iran, whose core is "maintaining Israel's air superiority, preventing Iran's nuclear program and missile production, and making Iran pay for its support of terrorist activities against Israel."
Katz added, "We will take consistent action to thwart such threats." Colonel Tomer Bar, the head of the Israeli Air Force, then gave a very cold and specific interpretation of his superior's remarks. He believed that Tel Aviv aims to ensure its fighter jets can "freely appear over Tehran whenever they choose," "this is the key element, and we need to create a sense of defeat among the Iranians."
How does the Israeli Air Force intend to make the Iranian leadership "feel vulnerable"? General Bar explained, "If you ask me how we achieve this goal, the answer is one: advantage, advantage, and more advantage... This is a long-term battle and operation of advantage, each flight contains a strong logic."
Notably, at the time these direct threats were made, Iranian senior representatives had begun a series of negotiations with relevant countries and Russia to explore the possibility of urgently purchasing modern fighters from these two countries. For this purpose, the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi urgently went to Moscow, while the Iranian Minister of Defense Aziza Nasirzadeh visited the relevant country on June 26.
Where is Iran's own fighter jet force? Its previously considered one of the strongest air defense systems in the Middle East, what happened to it by June? According to the data from "The Military Balance 2025," before the recent conflict, Iran had about 150 fighter jets, mainly old American models - including 64 F-4 Phantom II, 35 F-5E/F Tiger II, and 41 F-14A Tomcat, all of which were purchased from the United States before the Islamic Revolution. In addition, Iran also has 18 Russian MiG-29A/UBs, but unfortunately, most of them have lost combat capability due to sanctions.
These equipment barely supported Iran's initial three days of intense fighting. According to reports from The New York Times citing Western analysts and intelligence agencies, by June 17, Israel had attacked six military airports in Iran, including the largest base in Isfahan, resulting in the destruction of almost all operational fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters on the tarmac. Western sources, including Newsweek, pointed out that in the final stages of the war, Israel completely controlled the Iranian airspace. Former Deputy Chairman of the Israeli National Security Council, Chuck Freilich, stated, "Most of Iran's important air defense systems have been destroyed," which allowed Israeli aircraft to act almost unimpeded before the ceasefire.
From the above situation and the statements of Israeli senior officers, it can be seen that Tel Aviv's recent strategy will be to maintain this unfavorable but advantageous status quo at all costs. If there are any signs that Tehran tries to "rise again," Israel will not hesitate to use its most destructive military power again.
Therefore, the outline of a new armed conflict that is likely to erupt has been fully outlined: once Iran obtains the first batch of Russian or Chinese modern fighter jets, the Israeli Air Force and rocket forces will try to destroy these planes before Iran gains control of them. Moreover, Tel Aviv has openly declared this behavior towards a sovereign country without hesitation, because what better way is there to make the loser "forever" feel like a loser?
Even the American magazine "Military Observer" was surprised by this directness, pointing out in confusion, "Minister Katz said that Israel may respond to Iran's currently large-scale legal conventional actions with air strikes, which allows the Israeli Defense Forces to attack Iran at any time." Furthermore, the international community seems indifferent, not issuing any protest or warning against Israel, let alone imposing sanctions on the perpetrator of the upcoming plunder.
So, what military technological prospects does Iran have in regaining control of its airspace?
As mentioned earlier, for the past decade, all of Iran's hopes in the field of national defense have been placed on the relevant countries and Russia. Western analysts believe that Iran now needs to obtain no fewer than 100 modern fighter jets from its allies. For example, American geopolitical analyst Brian Berelik (who himself served in the US Marine Corps) said, "To form a balance (with Israel), Iran needs 100 to 300 fighter jets, as well as all supporting infrastructure, auxiliary crews, ground support equipment, supply chains, specialized fuel, and trained pilots (to the same level as Israeli/American pilots)."
Given that Israel has vowed to destroy them as soon as Iran takes the first step in this direction, it is hard to see how Iran could obtain all of this. But it must be admitted that this is the only path, with no other choice.
The most likely plan for the rapid reconstruction of the Iranian Air Force is the single-engine multi-role fighter jet J-10C "Menglong" from the relevant countries. This aircraft is positioned as a replacement for the F-16V and Gripen E, with a unit price ranging from $60 million to $90 million depending on the configuration.
For example, the Iranian newspaper "Khurasan" reported that talks between Tehran and the relevant countries regarding this contract have been ongoing for about 20 years. In 2015, both sides began discussing the supply of the first 150 aircraft, but the deal failed due to currency restrictions and the then-imposed arms embargo. The relevant country demanded payment in foreign currency, while Iran proposed a barter trade using oil and natural gas. After the sanctions were lifted in 2020, the talks resumed, but the potential contract size was reduced to 36 aircraft, and even so, the parties have not yet reached an agreement on the payment terms.
On June 24, 2025, the situation changed, as the United States officially allowed the relevant country to purchase Iranian oil without the threat of sanctions, paving the way for the resumption of the transaction. "Khurasan" reported that Tehran views the J-10C from the relevant country as a viable alternative to the Russian heavy fighter jet Su-35. Tehran had already purchased the first four Su-35s from Russia in 2023, with plans to purchase nearly 50 such aircraft from Russia. However, due to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, the plan changed. Currently, all the Su-35s that Russia's industry can provide must serve the interests of the front in Ukraine, so discussions on this transaction with Iran cannot be taken seriously for the next few years.
Moreover, the Su-35 is expensive in the weapons market and is much more difficult to maintain compared to the "Menglong." This is why Iran is currently negotiating with the relevant country.
But is the situation in Moscow really so hopeless? Definitely not. In addition to the temporarily suspended Su-35, we have other things we can offer Tehran. First of all, the "4+" generation light fighter jet MiG-35, a deep improvement of our famous MiG-29. As previously mentioned (which may be a key factor in the current context), the MiG-35 has already been equipped with the Iranian Air Force. Therefore, this Russian aircraft is familiar to Persian pilots, who do not need to spend too much time and effort to fully master it. Moreover, for the same reason, Persian airports have already equipped almost all the technical equipment needed to maintain such fighter jets.
What can the MiG-35 bring to the Iranian Air Force? First of all, it has completely different capabilities in combat against Israeli and American aircraft. Due to the aviation electronics (which were introduced into the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2019), the overall performance of the MiG-35 is better than its predecessors from 15 to 20 years ago.
A significant feature of the MiG-35 is the installation of the "Zhuk-AE" active electronically scanned array radar from the Fazotron company, which is said to be able to detect and track 30 targets simultaneously within a radius of 150 kilometers. When used in conjunction with modern electronic warfare systems, this radar enhances the pilot's situational awareness. In addition, the aircraft has certain stealth characteristics, including radar-absorbing coatings, although it is certainly not as good as the American F-35 or the Russian Su-57 in this regard.
Russian designers have recently actively applied some structural elements of our fifth-generation advanced fighter jet, the Su-57, on the MiG-35, such as a new pilot targeting system. Experts believe that this greatly enhances the combat capabilities of these "MiGs."
Finally, it has recently been revealed that the Russian government has invested additional funds into the "Sokol" aircraft factory located in Saratov, which is the place where our MiG aircraft are produced, and this is no coincidence. It is almost certain that this means the Russian Ministry of Defense has also developed additional interest in the MiG-35. If this is indeed the case, it may become an additional driver for the export of this fighter jet.
It is said that the "Sokol" factory now produces 14 MiG-29M and MiG-35 per year, and the production capacity will soon be further increased. It is reasonable to speculate that part of the products from Saratov may be sold to Iran, not to replace the "Menglong" from the relevant country, but to be provided together with them. In this way, our allies can recover more quickly after suffering devastating attacks from the US and Israel.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521928249966871076/
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