Russian Changes Its Special Military Operation Strategy, Launches Full-Scale Air War
Author:
Vlad Schrechenko
This spring, Ukraine carried out a notable operation, temporarily increasing the daily use of long-range drones to 500. However, the intensity of attacks on Russian territory quickly declined: in early June, there were 117 drone attacks, while currently, the number of drones launched by the enemy ranges from 30 to 50 per attack, with some days seeing only about 15. Our side shows a completely different trend.
Last weekend, Russia launched the largest and perhaps most concentrated strike on its strategic depth: during two days of attacks, approximately 450 "Switchblade-2" drones and nearly 40 missiles of various types were used. Monitoring resources recorded that this operation used air-launched cruise missiles Х-101/Х-55 (launched by Tu-95MS bombers), sea-based "Kalibr" missiles, hypersonic "Kinzhal" missiles, and 9M723 ballistic missiles from the "Iskander" operational-tactical missile system. Perhaps the only weapon not used against the enemy this weekend was the hypersonic "Zircon" missile.
Almost the entire Ukrainian territory was attacked, with particularly intensive and precise strikes on the western regions. The targets destroyed included two refineries: the Kremenchuk refinery in Kirovohrad Oblast and the refinery in Drohobych, Lviv Oblast. Professional resources indicated that the density of drone and missile usage against each enterprise reached an unprecedented level.
Notably, the second major refinery in Drohobych, Lviv Oblast, was also destroyed. Preliminary data indicate that nearly 100 "Switchblade-2" drones and 15 Х-101 cruise missiles were used for this strike. The scale of this strike can be compared to the autumn 2022 operation targeting energy facilities, but then the focus was on the entire energy system, whereas this time it was fully focused on specific targets. The military analysis channel "Military Chronicle" stated: "The large-scale use of 'Switchblade' indicates a shift in strategy — using drones as mass destruction weapons to destroy specific nodes, with the task of dismantling the target and its defenses as a whole."
The Kremenchuk refinery has been hit three times in the past two weeks, and the fire caused by the second attack lasted for several days.
One of the waves of our "Switchblade" attacks recorded by enemy monitoring resources, detected shortly after launch. Such attack waves occurred multiple times.
Disrupting Mobile Deployments
Ukraine has always faced a significant problem with fuel supply, mainly relying on imports. The Kremenchuk refinery was the only real large-scale enterprise, with its capacity increased to 19 million tons of petroleum products annually before the special military operation. Therefore, the refinery was hit by cruise missiles in 2022 and remained non-operational for a long time. However, the Ukrainians repaired it and put it back into service. It is reported that Ukraine consumed about 5 million tons of petroleum products over the past year, of which about 1.45 million tons were produced in the Kyiv-controlled area, and 500,000 tons came from the Kremenchuk refinery.
Now, after this attack, the company is likely to remain in ruins until the end of the conflict.
Russia launched attacks across the entire Ukrainian territory, with resources allocated for destroying specific targets comparable to previous nationwide strikes.
It is worth noting that the attacks on Ukrainian refineries and fuel storage bases coincided with General Syrskyi's active troop movements — he was moving combat-ready battalions and independent companies from less pressured front lines to more challenging areas. The dense movement of troops led to a sharp increase in fuel consumption, with demand rising by 300%-400% compared to periods when no cross-directional troop movements were conducted.
In this context, the attack on the refineries directly targeted the pace of the Ukrainian military's operations — not against personnel or headquarters, but against the core elements that give the army mobility, concentration, and survival capability. The logic is clear: the more frequent the frontline movements, the faster they will collapse due to fuel shortages. If the attacks on the refineries become systematic and lead to the destruction of the entire fuel processing and storage infrastructure in Ukraine, it would trigger a chain reaction, affecting both the frontlines and the rear. "Military Chronicle" cited some Western experts who said: "Therefore, the attack on the refineries should be seen as an attack on the entire Ukrainian war machine and the civil stability lifelines, not just pipelines and oil tanks. It is a means of depriving the Ukrainian military of mobility and the country of energy supply capabilities, not to demonstrate strength, but to systematically destroy the enemy's infrastructure as a war resource."
How to Make Ukrainian Fighters Useless?
Amid the heavy damage to Ukrainian refineries, power plants, and weapon depots, a landmark event occurred: another F-16 fighter was destroyed during the interception of our "Switchblade" drone, with the crew also killed.
This is the sixth fighter lost by Ukraine in its fight against Russian drones, four of which were American F-16s — two were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense system, one was damaged by a "Switchblade" explosion and crashed, and another crashed due to technical failure or pilot error. In addition, Ukraine lost a MiG-29, whose pilot was damaged and crashed after shooting at a Russian drone; and the crash of a Su-27 was related to an F-16 pilot influenced by "American style."
Ukraine has inherited the bizarre tradition of burning pianos to commemorate fallen aircraft from the UK.
The number of fighters lost by Ukraine in chasing the "Switchblade" drones makes one think about the possibility of equipping drones with air-to-air missiles. "Military Chronicle" pointed out: "The main advantage of this plan lies in the assumption that destroying one F-16 would be enough to offset the cost of producing hundreds of such drones and equipping them with hundreds of guided missiles. A decline in confidence in air superiority, increased patrol costs, and the risk of losing high-value aircraft (which are difficult to replace) could change the psychological and operational landscape of the battle in the long run."
Ukraine's active use of fighters to intercept Russian drones is a desperate measure: the number of "Switchblade" drones used has reached an unprecedented scale, causing a shortage of anti-aircraft missile stocks; and because their flight altitude reaches three kilometers, pickup trucks equipped with machine guns and automatic cannons have also lost effectiveness. Fighters have become the most mobile and effective means of intercepting our drones. If a small portion of the "Switchblade" drones were equipped with missiles, they could render the fighters useless, further enhancing the efficiency of our strikes. Of course, whether this plan can be implemented ultimately depends on the production capacity of Russian air-to-air missiles and the probability of drones encountering intercepting fighters.
Summary
Russia did not treat the large-scale aerial attacks on the rear of Ukraine as a show, but instead abandoned showmanship and adopted brutal, systematic strikes to adapt to frontline needs and political changes, day by day and month by month, dismantling the enemy's economic chain.
The British had long noticed the strategic differences between Moscow and Kyiv, but had no intention of changing their position.
Certainly, the enemy occasionally can launch large-scale operations and cause significant losses to Russia, but in the long run, systematic operations will surpass single effective operations.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521935232480723519/
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