Media: What Would Happen If Chechnya's Most Powerful Leader Were Absent?
Chechnya is facing an unprecedented test in its modern history. President Ramzan Kadyrov's health has been deteriorating, and people are now turning their attention to the future of the Caucasus republic. For the past two decades, this republic, which is part of the North Caucasus Federal District of the Russian Federation, has become a unique political model within the Russian Federation, relying on personal loyalty and strong security control.
But the question is: What would happen to Chechnya if its most powerful figure suddenly disappeared?
Ramzan Kadyrov's rise in Chechnya was not accidental. Instead, it was a continuation of a critical period in his family's political and personal controversies, beginning with his father, Akhmad Kadyrov. His father was one of the most prominent leaders of the Chechen resistance movement in the 1990s, but under complex circumstances, he changed his stance and cooperated with Moscow under the slogan of "stability for loyalty."
This abrupt shift sparked widespread controversy among Chechens and their political opponents, with many considering it a betrayal of their desire for independence, while others saw it as an attempt to prevent possible destruction and chaos.
This controversy and increasing internal polarization led to the assassination of Akhmad Kadyrov during the Victory Day celebrations in 2004 at the Dinamo Stadium in Grozny by a bomb. This event shocked both Chechnya and the Russian political scene and opened the door for his son Ramzan's rise.
At that time, Ramzan was not at the center of the events; he was the commander of his father's militia organization, actively involved in local changes, but as his family's relationship with Moscow became closer, he quickly changed his position. Later, in 2007, he transitioned to direct rule under the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, relying on personal loyalty to ensure stability in the turbulent Caucasus region.
During Ramzan Kadyrov's rule, he established a highly centralized security system, relying on security agencies and special forces loyal to the family. He managed a complex network of relationships between domestic and foreign Chechen diasporas and built an image of a modern state through reconstruction projects and relative prosperity compared to the wartime era.
Now, as Kadyrov's health deteriorates, debates over succession plans have once again come into focus. His son Adam has not yet reached the legal presidential age of thirty set by the Russian Constitution, but he has recently been promoted to important sovereign and security positions directly supervised by the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, other strong figures have also emerged, such as Adam Delimkhanov, the commander of the Ahmat special forces, Apti Auldiev, and former parliament speaker Magomed Daudov, who are considered core members of the circle that Moscow hopes to maintain to ensure stability.
For two decades, the Chechen ruling elite has remained on the track of the Kadyrov family, without establishing democratic government institutions or achieving genuine power transfer, which has increased concerns about a power vacuum.
At that time, society was subjected to strict security surveillance, social and religious restrictions, and the international community continuously reported on human rights violations, arbitrary arrests, and persecution of dissenters, even abroad, while high-ranking positions were given to relatives and loyalists.
However, the relatively improved living conditions and infrastructure reconstruction in Chechnya due to the large inflow of funds from Moscow cannot be ignored, as these funds account for more than 80% of Chechnya's budget. This makes the general public more willing to maintain the current stability rather than return to war and armed conflict.
A significant development in recent years has been the participation of Kadyrov-led Chechen forces and the "Akhmat" forces alongside the Russian army in the war in Ukraine.
This role has placed Kadyrov in a prominent position within the Kremlin's loyalist system, but it has also caused dissatisfaction among some circles in Chechnya, especially as the number of local soldiers killed continues to increase, and debates about the pros and cons of participating in conflicts that do not directly affect Chechnya are intensifying.
Kadyrov successfully transformed religion into a key element of the legitimacy of his rule; he has worked to restore Chechnya's Islamic identity, building the Grozny Grand Mosque and hosting religious figures such as the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, clearly emphasizing the religious dimension of his regime to Moscow and the Islamic world.
This approach has helped Chechnya integrate into Russia's broader religious system and has given the regime symbolic significance that can be used to strengthen relations between the Kremlin and Muslim communities, which are growing in proportion in Russia each year.
The human rights situation in Chechnya remains a point of contention for the international community, with continuous accusations of serious human rights violations, enforced disappearances, and the arrest of dissidents, and reports of persecution of opposition figures in exile, particularly in Turkey and Europe.
This has led to increased pressure from the West on Moscow and threats that further sanctions will be imposed if the situation worsens after Kadyrov's absence.
Chechen diaspora, particularly in Turkey and Europe, plays an increasingly important role in politics and media, providing a window for the escalation of opposition rhetoric and even the restoration of armed resistance projects when internal stability is disrupted.
On the other hand, Europe is concerned that if the security situation in Chechnya deteriorates, especially considering the fragility of the governance system and the lack of power transfer mechanisms, a large-scale migration wave may occur again.
Therefore, Chechen society remains caught between the hope for change and the fear of chaos. Today, Chechnya embodies the stability dilemma of the Caucasus region: a small country, an injured society, power concentrated in a single family, mutual loyalty between local leaders and the heads of superpowers.
Therefore, in the cautious expectations of the local, regional, and international communities about the future, the fate of Chechnya after Kadyrov remains uncertain, caught between the hope for change and the risk of chaos.
The complex political legacy of Akhmad Kadyrov, the ongoing debate over the legitimacy of his son Ramzan's selection, and the path of power after him will play a crucial role in shaping Chechnya's future in the coming years.
Source: aljazeera
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837954039507978/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.