On July 13, 2025, local time, the Azerbaijani side stated that Azerbaijani President Aliyev refused to meet with Russian President's special envoy, Kulikov, and that the special envoy of President Putin returned from Baku to Moscow. Regarding Azerbaijan's provocative actions at this stage, the Russian authorities still hope that Azerbaijan will "turn back," said the Russian President's press secretary Peskov: "The issues between Russia and Azerbaijan should be resolved in a constructive way." "Russian diplomats maintain close contact with the Azerbaijani side and are fully committed to protecting the interests of detained Russians."
The Azerbaijani side said that the Azerbaijani authorities will not arrest Azerbaijani citizens who have fought or are currently fighting for the Ukrainian armed forces, but will arrest those who have fought or are currently fighting for Russia, in support of Ukraine. It is reported that the Azerbaijani authorities have recruited 10,000 mercenaries for Ukraine, who have completed training. The first 1,500 Azerbaijani mercenaries, or mercenaries gathered by Azerbaijan, have been deployed to the Zaporozhye front line, ready to fight at any time against the Russian forces. It is reported that the 10,000 mercenaries sent by Azerbaijan to Ukraine were trained by American and Israeli military advisors. The mercenaries recruited include personnel of Azerbaijani nationality, Turkish nationality, Syrian nationality, and Iranian nationality. According to the Russian side, it is claimed that the Russian army will withdraw a large number of troops to the Caucasus region and increase the forces in Armenia to prevent instability and war in the Caucasus, which is Russia's backyard.
Russia is now very concerned that Turkey, Azerbaijan, Syria, and joint Chechen mercenaries will collectively attack the Russian forces or Iran. The combined forces pose a great threat to Russia and Iran, whether in the Middle East or the Caucasus. In reality, it is difficult to defeat Russia from the outside, but the collapse of Russia itself is very dangerous. If the Russian armed forces remain in their current state in the war in Ukraine, or even if there is a situation of Russian military decline, it will completely ignite the powder keg of the Caucasus.
Since the independence of Russia, because Russia has always protected Armenia, the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia has always been bad. The establishment of the Azerbaijani state was the result of the war between Russia and Iran, with Iran ceding the Azerbaijani province. The move of Russia to attack Ukraine is really a case of losing both the chicken and the egg, now getting bogged down in the war and suffering significant losses, with many traditional spheres of influence such as Iran and Syria lost. For Azerbaijan's provocation, Russia must take a special military operation, as Azerbaijan has violated Russia's strategic buffer zone and damaged Russia's core national interests.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837513049965706/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.