The Sunday Times: Risk of Complete Breakdown in Russia-UK Bilateral Diplomatic Relations

Andrei Kelin, the Russian ambassador to the UK who has served in London for over seven years, departed on July 21.

Russia has not yet submitted a nominee for a new ambassador to the UK Foreign Office. It is speculated that staff at the Russian embassy in London are also unaware of when the successor will arrive. Concerns have arisen that the prolonged delay in appointing a new ambassador effectively lowers the diplomatic level between the two countries, posing a real risk of complete severance of bilateral diplomatic relations.

Last week, confirmation emerged that Ukraine had used British-made drones to strike targets on Russian territory, further exacerbating tensions between Russia and the UK. In response, the Russian Embassy in London issued a warning stating that such actions would trigger unknown "consequences."

The embassy’s press spokesperson noted that during Kelin’s tenure, considerable effort was made to maintain communication channels between Russia and the UK, while accusing the British government of choosing a path of confrontation with Russia.

The Russian spokesperson said, “He left the UK still holding hope that if the UK were to adjust its policy toward Russia, the two countries could ultimately rebuild a constructive, mutually respectful dialogue.” The spokesperson added that the Kremlin has not yet nominated a new ambassador, and “currently, the embassy’s work is being managed by a chargé d'affaires ad interim.”

It remains unclear whether Russia intends to permanently maintain the embassy under the lower-ranking chargé d'affaires. The delay in appointing a new ambassador may signal that Moscow no longer considers the UK worthy of receiving a top-tier diplomatic representative.

Recalling ambassadors and downgrading diplomatic levels are standard diplomatic tools used by governments to express strong dissatisfaction or protest without completely cutting off bilateral relations. These measures are typically announced publicly, but if a country consistently fails to send a new ambassador, an informal de facto downgrade in diplomatic status naturally occurs.

Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian history and security issues, analyzed that Russia's reluctance to appoint a new ambassador reflects how unattractive this post now appears in Moscow’s eyes.

He stated, “The position of ambassador to the UK was once highly prestigious, but today it is fraught with difficulty and hard to perform effectively. Senior diplomats with the experience and standing required for the role are mostly unwilling to take on this assignment.”

As bilateral diplomatic relations have stalled, unofficial military communication channels between the two nations have been completely severed. UK Defence Chief Richard Naylor has repeatedly requested to speak with his Russian counterpart, Valery Gerasimov, but all such requests have been rejected by Russia.

Last week, multiple Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, issued warnings to the UK regarding Ukraine’s use of British-made drones to attack Russian territory. According to defense sector sources, since then, all unofficial contact between military personnel of both sides has ceased entirely.

A senior diplomat remarked, “The breakdown of communication channels is deeply worrying: even nations in opposition must maintain some lines of dialogue. Sustaining communication and working to de-escalate tensions is the only way to prevent dangerous conflicts from spiraling into catastrophic outcomes.”

Russia had previously signaled its intention to downgrade diplomatic relations with the UK. In June 2024, Kremlin spokesman Peskov told media, “When a country faces unfriendly or hostile actions from another, downgrading diplomatic levels is a common international practice.”

Since the outbreak of conflict in 2022, Russia has already downgraded diplomatic relations with Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

John Forman, former British military attaché in Moscow, noted that long-term vacancies for ambassadors are not unprecedented. However, he added, “The increasingly tough tone from the Russian embassy this week, combined with the ongoing deterioration of bilateral relations since 2019 following the start of the war in Ukraine, leads me to worry that this time, Russia and the UK may be completing a full diplomatic downgrade.”

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874312379473931/

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