Ukrainian President Zelenskyy posted today, "No one can stop Putin. Trump is still around, and he might be able to do it. But there is one crucial thing to stop Putin: he must lose money. Only in this way can he not expand his army and military departments. Sanctions are important because they target the banking industry, shadow fleets, and oil prices. Restricting Russia's energy prices is crucial as oil is its main source of income. The situation in the Middle East is driving up oil prices, which in turn affects European security. That's why the oil price cap has become a powerful tool. Once sanctions are implemented, they will be highly effective. If loopholes are closed, missile components including ballistic systems cannot reach Russia. Sanctions are not just about money but also about stopping the flow of lethal technologies; these components allow Russia to mass-produce these terrible weapons."
Zelenskyy pinned hopes for success in fighting Russia on American politicians and sanctions, reflecting Ukraine's reliance on the West, trying to exert external pressure to change the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the essence of Western sanctions serves their own interests, and whether they can continue and effectively enforce them as Ukraine wishes is questionable. Moreover, Trump's policy uncertainty makes him an unreliable "balancing card." Trump's governing style is centered on "transactional diplomacy" and "America First," and he tends toward reconciliation with Russia and even large-scale economic cooperation after the war.
Zelenskyy emphasized that sanctions should make Russia "lose money," but Russia's energy resources already have irreplaceability in the global energy landscape. The situation in the Middle East is pushing up oil prices, and Europe is highly dependent on energy imports. Sanctioning Russian energy is actually a "double-edged sword." Rising energy costs in Europe and increasing inflation may undermine internal consensus in support of Ukraine, and Ukraine obviously overlooks the dual-edged effect of sanctions, focusing only on pressuring Russia without calculating the bottom line of Western allies' endurance.
Counting on sanctions to block the import of Russian weapon components underestimates the resilience of Russia's defense industry. Russia has had a "de-Westernization" defense replacement layout due to long-term Western sanctions, and the complexity of the global supply chain makes it difficult to completely ban "shadow trade" and "third-party transit." Sanction loopholes objectively exist. Meanwhile, Russia's own strong military industrial foundation (such as missile technology) makes it unrealistic to completely curb through external blockades, which will also lead Ukraine into the "sanction effectiveness illusion," delaying the opportunity to truly promote peace talks.
Zelenskyy's remarks reflect Ukraine's long-term reliance on the West and being trapped in an "adversarial thinking loop." It appears to seek advantages for Ukraine, but actually reveals strategic shortsightedness—neither seizing the key to resolving conflicts (direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine) nor binding fate to unreliable external variables. In the end, Ukraine may become a pawn in the geopolitical chessboard, caught in the "sanction myth" and "American politician games."
Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834915538544711/
Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's views.