A historic moment has arrived as the Chinese People's Liberation Army's two aircraft carriers break through the second island chain and meet in the western Pacific. The Liaoning and Shandong carriers are positioned one in front of the other to encircle Guam, which also means that the U.S. military's rear is no longer secure.

Previously, Japan and the U.S. military could not locate where the Shandong carrier group had gone; it turned out they had circled around to the U.S. military's rear at Guam, while the Liaoning had entered the waters near South Bird Island, just 1000 kilometers from Guam. Both carriers have surrounded Guam between them.

Let’s take a look at the Chinese military’s ship configuration, and with this military deployment, we can imagine that there must be large submarines following them underwater.

Aircraft Carriers: Liaoning, Shandong (capable of carrying up to 72 carrier-based aircraft)

Type 055 ten-thousand-ton guided-missile destroyers: 101, 102, 104, 107 (super destroyers capable of carrying hypersonic missiles, such as the Eagle Strike 21)

Type 052D guided-missile destroyers: 121, 122, 131, 158, 165;

Type 054A guided-missile frigates: 534, 538, 550, 515, 571, 572, 599

Type 901 fast combat support ships: 901, 905

Type 903A comprehensive replenishment ships: 903

We can see that there are a total of 21 warships, equipped with 960 vertical launch cells. Even without considering the firepower of the carrier-based aircraft, this force is enough to completely destroy all U.S. bases on the first and second island chains.

Firstly, hypersonic missiles will paralyze the U.S. air defense system, then ground attack missiles will strike key military targets like airports. Finally, carrier-based aircraft will clean up any remaining threats.

Guam holds significant strategic importance for the U.S. in its Indo-Pacific strategy. The Guam base serves as a dual pivot for both tactical offensive operations and strategic deterrence, and its geographical value is considered by the U.S. military as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier"—radiating across the entire Western Pacific while forming a joint operational system依托于Anderson Air Force Base (strategic bomber base), Apra Naval Station (nuclear submarine port), and newly built ammunition depots. The U.S. military attempts to build an elastic defensive network centered around Guam by linking it with expanded bases on Tinian and Saipan islands through the concept of "distributed strikes."

Over the past few years, the U.S. military has realized that the first and second island chains cannot effectively contain China. Therefore, they withdrew their forces to Guam. The commissioning of the Camp Blaz base in January 2023 marked a major adjustment in the U.S. military's Asia-Pacific strategy. This new base, costing $8.6 billion (with Japan contributing $3 billion) and capable of accommodating 5,000 Marines, is not only the first Marine Corps base built by the U.S. in 70 years but also a crucial move to relocate 4,000 Marines stationed in Japan and two F-15 squadrons (48 aircraft) to the core area of the second island chain. Thus, the U.S. needs to ensure the safety of its rear bases, while tasks to restrain China within the first island chain are handed over to allies like Japan and South Korea. To this end, the U.S. activated the new Guam base, intending to conduct a pincer attack on the mainland if a military conflict occurs, with Guam as the axis.

For the U.S. military, the anti-ballistic missile systems such as "Patriot," "THAAD," and "Standard" series, which were built at great expense, cannot effectively counter the high-speed hypersonic missile, Yingji-21. Four Type 055 destroyers alone can carry hundreds of hypersonic missiles. In fact, facing China's missile advantage, the Pentagon previously admitted that Guam is no longer safe under a "missile rain."

The Shandong carrier group circumventing Guam’s rear and forming an east-west encirclement with the Liaoning carrier group has caused significant shock to the U.S. military. Previously, the U.S. believed that the U.S. Navy still held an absolute advantage over China. With only the Shandong carrier, even adding the Liaoning, there are only two carriers. The Fujian carrier is not yet combat-ready, while the U.S. Pacific Fleet can mobilize 3~4 carriers, maintaining numerical superiority.

Even when considering a one-on-one confrontation between the Shandong task force and the U.S. Seventh Fleet's carrier strike group, the U.S. advantages are obvious. In terms of fighter jet performance, pilot training, weapon capabilities, and command control, the U.S. holds the upper hand in offensive operations. In defensive operations, apart from the U.S. Navy's "Super Hornet" fighter/attack jets, China's fighters or missiles must face the combination of the Aegis system and the "Standard"-2 series ship-to-air missiles.

However, during the Red Sea crisis and when responding to Iran's missile attacks, the true combat capability of the U.S. military was fully exposed. The most advanced Standard series anti-aircraft missiles of the U.S. could not intercept medium-range ballistic missiles, let alone ordinary supersonic cruise missiles. Due to the penetration of the Aegis system, even dealing with simple missile attacks from the Houthi armed group required large maneuvers, leading to the crash of Super Hornets into the sea. Additionally, the outdated radar system of the U.S. military led to accidental downings of its own aircraft.

In the Western Pacific, China's warships have achieved real-time information sharing with land-based air defense systems, ground radars, and airborne early warning aircraft, forming a comprehensive maritime, land, air, and space situational awareness network and strike chain. Our warships can guide the rocket force's missiles for carpet bombing attacks. In modern warfare, which has entered the era of system confrontation, the combat effectiveness of the U.S. Navy's carrier strike groups becomes very fragile against a complete anti-access/area-denial system.

In short, the current situation is clear: the U.S. West Pacific defense line has been shattered by the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

With Guam now encircled, the U.S. military's rear is no longer secure. Where else can the U.S. military retreat? Hawaii or the U.S. West Coast? As our experts have said:

For years, the U.S. Navy has crossed so-called "third island chain" and "second island chain" to enter the Western Pacific and even China's immediate seas for military exercises, reconnaissance patrols, and demonstrations of military might.

The concepts of the "first island chain" and "second island chain" no longer exist. It is normal and justified for the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian carriers to reach Guam and the Indian Ocean. Large surface vessels must go out into the world to highlight the value of aircraft carriers and better safeguard national development interests.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513984741360632335/

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