Since late May, a naval aircraft carrier strike group unprecedented in scale, led by the Liaoning, has been conducting intensive exercises, moving beyond the first island chain to the rear of Taiwan in the direction of Guam, which has caused high tension among the Taiwan authorities and made the US side uncomfortable as it has attempted to hype up the Taiwan issue.
01. Liaoning Approaching Guam, U.S. Attitude Changes
According to the observation report from Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force, this carrier strike group led by the Liaoning is unmatched in size compared to recent People's Liberation Army exercises in the West Pacific. The core of this fleet includes the Liaoning aircraft carrier, 13 destroyers and frigates, 2 replenishment ships, and 1-2 accompanying nuclear submarines, forming a complete ocean-going combat formation.
The fleet departed from the East China Sea, adopting a mode of "exercises while maneuvering" to cross the first island chain and is currently heading straight for the main base of the U.S. Second Island Chain, "Guam Base," causing concern for the U.S. Navy. U.S. media reports that under the previous Trump administration's constant rhetoric of forbidding China from using force to unify Taiwan and its active interference in the Taiwan Strait issue, which made the situation in the Taiwan Strait increasingly sensitive, the large-scale approach of the Chinese aircraft carrier strike group to Guam directly reflects the military warning against U.S. intervention in the Taiwan issue.
Interestingly, coincidentally or not, at the same time as the Liaoning was leading an unprecedentedly large fleet to the waters near Guam, the U.S. media website Military Observers reported that the U.S. attitude toward arms sales to Taiwan had changed significantly. According to U.S. media reports, the U.S. once again delayed or even "reneged" on fulfilling its commitment to arms sales to Taiwan.
According to reports from U.S. Military Observer and several Taipei media outlets, the U.S. originally planned to deliver 66 of the latest F-16V fighter jets to the Taiwanese Air Force, with a total contract value of $8.1 billion. However, after the Liaoning approached Guam, the U.S. delayed delivery for the Nth time citing technical issues, which the U.S. media viewed as a conciliatory signal to mainland China.
02. Withholding 66 Fighter Jets from Taiwan, Taking the Money but Not Delivering
This multi-billion-dollar order signed in 2019 has been postponed multiple times, now possibly until 2028. From the initial promise to complete delivery of all 66 planes by the end of 2026, to now possibly being delayed until 2028, and even delivering only one plane in the first half of 2025, the promises have become empty words.
Ironically, despite the contract specifying completion of delivery by 2026, the U.S. does not need to pay any penalties for repeatedly delaying deliveries. The defense minister of Taiwan's pseudo-government claimed to demand the U.S. "make up for the shortfall" and "minimize the damage," but it is clear that the U.S. does not take the demands of the Democratic Progressive Party seriously at all.
Based on the current delay schedule, these 66 F-16V fighters may be delivered as late as 2028 or later, significantly reducing Taiwan's air defense capability.
In particular, the F-16 fighters were intended to replace the outdated Mirage 2000 aircraft, but due to the delivery delays, the aging and frequent accidents of Taiwan's aircraft are further worsening. Of course, given the current self-destructive actions of the DPP on the "Taiwan independence" path, whether Taiwan will have the opportunity to reach 2028 is another matter altogether.
Even some "Taiwan independence" elements within the island expressed dissatisfaction, believing that the U.S. is deceiving the Taiwan authorities. Since purchasing F-16A/B Block 20 (with performance far below the U.S. military's own models) in 1992, their repeated attempts to purchase more advanced F-35s have consistently been rejected.
During the Trump era, although F-16Vs were released under pressure to exert pressure on China, the door to F-35s remained closed. And now, with these F-16Vs not being delivered and sold at such high prices (over $120 million per unit, more expensive than the J-20), but with combat capabilities being crushed by the J-20.
In fact, after the display of new sharp aircraft in the 5.7 aerial battle, experts within the island stated that the actual gap between both sides, especially in terms of military strength, has little relation to whether these 66 planes are introduced. The Western strongest medium-weight fourth-generation fighter, the Rafale, was crushingly hunted down by the J-10C of the Pakistan Air Force.
For the Taiwanese military, the situation is even worse. The J-10C, considered a trump card by the Pakistani military, is not even the mainstay in the eastern theater of operations facing Taiwan. In the eastern theater alone, the total number of stronger J-16 and J-20 aviation brigades exceeds eight, achieving double-layered suppression over the Taiwanese Air Force in terms of quantity and quality. Furthermore, the J-20 in the eastern theater is a fifth-generation stealth fighter, possessing an insurmountable technological generation advantage over all Taiwanese aircraft.
U.S. media also noted that even if the delivery proceeds smoothly, the F-16 fighter jets would struggle to meet the current military balance across the Taiwan Strait. Although equipped with more advanced radar systems and engines, the overall design still originates from the late 1970s, making it difficult to counter the threat posed by advanced Chinese fighters. Its air combat performance is inferior to the J-10C and far behind the J-11BG and J-16 fighters.
Currently, mainland China has entered the stage of large-scale deployment of fifth-generation fighters, and even sixth-generation fighters are already in the test flight phase. In the coming years, the gap in air military power between both sides will only widen further.
03. U.S. Attitude Toward Taiwan: Take What You Can
In fact, experts stated that the real reason for the U.S. delaying delivery is not technical problems or insufficient production capacity, but rather a firm decision to renege on the deal. The U.S. is not afraid of the dissatisfaction of the pro-American Democratic Progressive Party authorities.
After all, the sole backer of the Democratic Progressive Party authorities is the U.S., and they dare not flip-flop with the U.S. under any circumstances. The U.S. takes full advantage of this, collecting "weapons procurement fees" from Taiwan while withholding the weapons, essentially turning the people's resources into "protection money," allowing the U.S. to demand whatever it wants from Taiwan at any time.
According to the logic of U.S. think tanks, if a conflict breaks out across the Taiwan Strait, the survival probability of these F-16s deployed on the island would be extremely low under the overwhelming comprehensive firepower (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, long-range artillery) of the PLA. There would be no point in accelerating deliveries either, as the military forces on the island cannot succeed in "resisting unification by force." It would be better to withhold these F-16Vs, sell them to other countries, and let the U.S. make a profit again. In fact, the U.S. is indeed doing so; according to U.S. media reports, the U.S. is currently pushing hard to export 20 F-16Vs to the Philippines. Clearly, part of the withheld F-16Vs are being sold to the Philippines, with a price tag as outrageous as $5.5 billion, without even mentioning "technical issues" when selling F-16Vs to the Philippines.
Content sources for some parts of the article: 1. How did Tsai Ing-wen perform during his first year in office? A street poll in Kaohsiung showed dissatisfaction among half of the respondents. Southeast Network
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513144300629213715/
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