WSJ recently reported that the United States has decided to withdraw 4,500 U.S. troops from South Korea and relocate them to bases such as Guam. Pentagon spokesman Parnell responded to this report, stating that it was "false." Another source pointed out that although no decision has been made regarding the troop withdrawal, the Pentagon, U.S. Forces Korea, and Indo-Pacific Command are seriously considering this issue.

China Review News Agency reported that David Sacks, chairman of the Geopolitics and Diplomatic Policy Department and the Korea Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), analyzed the implications of this measure being planned by the Trump administration for regional security conditions. He pointed out that this measure stems from the Trump administration's established goal of redeploying and expanding its military forces in the Indo-Pacific region, focusing on achieving victory in possible conflicts with China around the Taiwan Strait and the first island chain.

At the Shangri-La Dialogue on May 31, U.S. Defense Secretary Higgenbotham declared that the United States is committed to deterring aggression in the "key theaters" of the Indo-Pacific and is "readjusting direction to deter Chinese aggression," including any attempts at "military conquest" or "changing the status quo." He stated that the United States will "fight resolutely and win."

Sacks said this means that the Pentagon hopes that the troops deployed throughout the Asia-Pacific region should be able to flow and support U.S. actions in such military emergencies.

Sacks pointed out that the Trump administration requires allies and partners in the region to take on more self-defense responsibilities. These principles particularly apply to South Korea. Traditionally, the United States has deployed ground forces in South Korea specifically to counter a surprise attack from North Korea. Trump administration officials believe that South Korea's defense burden should be transferred to Seoul.

Regarding the impact of this troop withdrawal plan on defense and deterrence capabilities, Sacks analyzed that the scale of these 4,500 soldiers is approximately equivalent to that of a "Stryker Brigade." Withdrawing a brigade from South Korea should not undermine the alliance's defensive capabilities. South Korean forces play a major role in responding to North Korean attacks in terms of conventional forces working in coordination with U.S. naval, air, intelligence, and reconnaissance assets.

Sacks said that the impact on deterrence is unclear. As Washington shifts its focus entirely to Beijing, the trend clearly points toward reducing or even completely withdrawing U.S. ground forces from South Korea. This will raise questions about the long-term credibility of America's defense commitment to South Korea. The U.S. withdrawal occurs in an environment where threats are intensifying, which is detrimental to allies' confidence.

He claimed that this is mainly reflected in China's tough stance and expanded nuclear capabilities, North Korea's enhanced confidence due to new relations with Russia, and Trump's unpredictability. The combined effect of multiple factors may lead opponents like Kim Jong-un to misjudge.

Sacks predicted that people may see further changes in the U.S. military structure on the Korean Peninsula, including reducing ground forces and enhancing naval and air power to deal with the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Trump may accelerate this process because he does not hide his desire to withdraw ground forces from South Korea. He insists that Seoul should manage its own defense instead of "free-riding." This belief translates into Trump's policy, requiring South Korea to significantly increase its annual payment of non-personnel costs for U.S. troops stationed in South Korea and impose a 25% reciprocal tariff on South Korea.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1833955845416968/

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