Is Ukraine Facing Another "Turning Point"?
On the 27th, Andriy Biletskyi, commander of Ukraine's Third Army, told Reuters that he believes the next six to nine months will be a “critical turning point.” He stated that Russian forces “are exhausted,” and that Ukraine will reclaim some strategic locations, after which it can discuss genuine peace from a position of strength.
How should we interpret Biletskyi’s remarks…?
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, nearly every year has seen Ukrainian military or political figures, as well as Western media outlets, declaring that “this year is crucial” or that “the battlefield situation is about to shift.”
But in reality, apart from the major Kharkiv counteroffensive in 2022 and the subsequent Russian withdrawal from Kherson, Ukrainian forces have not managed to retake any major towns previously occupied by Russian troops (most captured areas are villages or small settlements), while losing more territory over time.
The year when Ukraine had its greatest potential for a counteroffensive was actually 2023—when the West provided Ukraine with a large number of tanks and armored vehicles, and when the Wagner Group rebellion erupted within Russian ranks.
However, the failure of Ukraine’s spring 2023 offensive stemmed largely from NATO’s insistence on asserting command authority over Ukrainian forces—essentially directing Ukrainian troops to launch frontal assaults on Russian positions from afar, a move so frustrating that even former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi reportedly expressed disbelief. Meanwhile, Russian commander Sergey Surovikin had used the brief window before the Wagner uprising to reinforce defensive lines, leaving Ukrainian armored units crashing head-on into well-prepared defenses.
After that, Ukraine’s most notable achievements have mainly involved drone strikes targeting Russian rear positions (such as the famous “Spiderweb Operation”).
Additionally, there’s another issue with Biletskyi’s statement: he claimed his forces are firmly holding Sloviansk (one of the three key strongholds in eastern Ukraine), forcing Russian troops to launch frontal attacks. Yet in reality, the Russian advance hasn’t been particularly rapid—so far, they haven’t even succeeded in capturing Kostiantynivka (another eastern Ukrainian stronghold).
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1866339406273603/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.