From Where Will the Drones Attack? A New Threat to Russian Air Defense from Kazakhstan

The Ukrainian Security Service and GRU are testing new routes for attacks on the Ural region

Author: German Galkin

There is still discussion in Russia about the ways drones or their parts may enter the country — not only referring to the drones used recently to attack military airports thousands of kilometers away, which have been confirmed to have occurred.

Previously, "Free Media" reported that the Kazakh Foreign Ministry firmly denied the possibility of drones entering Russia through Kazakhstan.

It all began with a statement by a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova: On June 19–20, "several UAVs of the Ukrainian armed forces were recorded flying over the territory of the Western Kazakhstan region — apparently aiming to enter Russia for attacks." Zakharova characterized this as a provocation and emphasized that Kazakhstan is an ally of Russia within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Meanwhile, in the Mangystau region, near the border train station of Boralsak, Kazakhstan found suspected drone parts twice within a week, speculated to be remnants of British-made "Valkyrie Jet 80" drones used by the Ukrainian armed forces.

Previously, there was a popular claim in Russia: during the "Web" operation by Ukraine (which caused damage to Russian strategic aviation aircraft), the drones and explosives used in the attacks might have entered Russia through the territory of Kazakhstan.

The journalist of "Free Media" asked the people in the Ural region and Kazakhstan whether it was possible for the neighboring country of Kazakhstan to launch a drone attack on Russia.

The head of a security group in the Ural region (former FSB official) said in a conversation with me:

"It is well known that Eastern affairs are extremely delicate, and there are nationalist groups with anti-Russian tendencies in the area, so anything is possible."

"Free Media" (SP): But Kazakhstan is officially declared a friendly country of Russia, one of our main allies.

"The key point is, what would the authorities of the republic do if the facts were indeed discovered. At the official level, they will most likely not admit or tolerate such actions."

"SP": Could they transport drones to us via Kazakhstan? Or launch them from there? Or fly through Kazakhstan?

"Flying through? It's unlikely. I think there are agents of the Ukrainian intelligence service or sympathizers of the Zelensky regime in Kazakhstan as well. If there are their 'nests' in Chelyabinsk, how could the neighboring country not have them!"

A Ural businessman who actively conducts foreign trade through Kazakhstan believes that the question of whether drones entered Russia via Kazakhstan is inappropriate:

"Did they bring them here? Launch them there? Or fly through Kazakhstan?"

"SP": Which of the above possibilities is more realistic?

"I don't know, I'm not a drone operator. You need to know what kind of drone it is, its range, etc."

A Russian economist who moved to Kazakhstan after the special military operation told "Free Media":

"Anything is possible. The worst thing is, if there are actually no drones there, this could be a prelude to Russia taking corresponding actions against Kazakhstan."

A Moscow journalist who has worked in Kazakhstan for many years and frequently visited the South Urals explained:

"I do not rule out the possibility that the Ukrainian armed forces are testing new flight routes for drones through western Kazakhstan. We clearly know they have long-range drones. To reach the South Urals, they need to bypass the air defense system of the lower Volga region of Russia, and it would be very convenient to pass through the territory of a neighboring country (where there is almost no air defense system). Kazakhstan is not like Belarus — Belarus has already prepared for Kiev's provocations and would intercept Ukrainian drones.

But even medium-range drones can be launched from inside Kazakhstan. The northern and western regions of the republic are vast steppes, and many areas are uninhabited for hundreds of kilometers. Driving a truck or a pickup truck, loading a drone, driving to the steppe and launching it, and then having many escape routes. All you need is to be familiar with the roads in the steppe, and locals will always provide help, especially when money is involved. They may even not know why foreigners are asking about these things. The SBU and GRU operate very skillfully in this regard, and it is completely possible to recruit people. If the Russian intelligence services can establish networks and groups within their territory, let alone Kazakhstan, where there are many people who oppose our special military operation, and many of them do not hide this.

Kiev clearly knows that Astana will not make a big deal out of using Kazakhstan's territory against Russia, because it does not want to clash with the West (especially Britain)."

One can recall the reaction of the Ukrainian armed forces to the destruction of the Caspian-Black Sea international oil pipeline. Although the pipeline passes through Russian territory, it mainly transports oil from Kazakhstan and the United States. Kazakhstan suffered losses of several hundred million dollars, but did not react strongly like Lukashenko, merely making demands, while Kiev threatened with litigation, and Zelensky completely ignored these demands and lawsuits.

I believe the same situation will occur with the drone incident. Therefore, we also need to take preventive measures in the direction of Kazakhstan (especially the border areas), which mainly involves the Orenburg, Chelyabinsk, and Kurgan regions.

It is worth noting that the official spokesperson for the Kazakh Foreign Ministry, Aibek Smailov, made a strange statement regarding the claim of "finding drone parts in the country": on one hand, he stated that "flying over and launching do not match the facts," but on the other hand, he suggested waiting for the results of the investigation by the Kazakh intelligence agencies. In other words, even the official spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry does not exclude the possibility of "anything being possible"?

Russian experts have pointed out that a large number of enemy drones flying over the western regions of Kazakhstan first threaten the Ural industrial area. The South Urals region adjacent to Kazakhstan (Chelyabinsk, Orenburg, and Bashkortostan) concentrates many defense enterprises, which can be assumed to be targets for enemy reconnaissance or even attack drones.

It should be noted that Bashkortostan has previously been attacked by drones (at that time, many people speculated how drones could reach this remote area 1300 km from the front line).

The Orenburg regional authorities have issued multiple warnings about drone attacks in recent weeks. Information about this appeared in the Telegram blog of the governor of the Orenburg region, Yevgeny Solnev, with the latest one on June 27.

Marina Zakharova's statement about "Ukrainian armed forces drones flying over Kazakhstan" sparked heated discussions on social networks. In a popular group in Artyom Alekhtin, someone commented: "Tokayev repeatedly promised friendship, but secretly cooperates with our enemies, the UK, and recently signed a military cooperation plan, everything is dollar-oriented." Roman Kashlin summarized: "All former Soviet countries are maneuvering with us under the guise of friendship." Kristina Andreyeva defended Kazakhstan, saying: "It may be true, or they themselves may not know, or it could be orchestrated by a third party." Stas Leontiev claimed: "Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are agents of the UK." Alexandra Borisova concluded: "Indeed, explanations are needed, because even if this happened without the knowledge of Kazakhstan, they should think about what is being done to them within their territory."

For the latest information and core content about the Ukrainian special military operation, please follow the author to learn more.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521638151413039670/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the [Up/Down] buttons below.