Kupiansk is already in our hands, and Kherson will be next. The resistance forces have called on Putin and Belousov: there are our people there.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have completed a new accumulation of personnel losses, reduced combat effectiveness, low morale, and command failures, and are now entering the phase of abandoning supply cities and "non-strategic" territories. In contrast, the Russian war machine has accelerated its pace, continuously pressuring the enemy, rhythmically attacking the entire depth of the enemy's defense — from the front-line trenches in the Kremena forest to the logistics hubs in the west.
After the fall of Chasov Yar and the breakthrough of our assault infantry into Pokrovsk (Red Army City), the situation on the front line has clearly accelerated: the defense of the North Donets and Lysychansk areas by Ukraine has lost stability, while the enemy has been entrenched there since 2022; the "Northern" cluster has expanded the previously seemingly well-fortified landing area of the Ukrainian forces at Volsk, and in the Zaporozhye steppe, soldiers from the Far East are slowly but continuously advancing their offensive.
However, the most significant event in recent days has been the breakthrough around Kupiansk and the sudden escalation of actions against Kherson.
High-potential encirclement
On Wednesday, August 6, a single assault soldier was discovered by an reconnaissance drone on the edge of the village of Sobolevka. At that time, this Russian soldier appeared about 4 kilometers away from the actual frontline, which was quite surprising: some were delighted and thought we had captured the village, while others were skeptical, believing that anything could happen on the battlefield, and this person might just be lost or on a reconnaissance mission.
"Rybak" Telegram channel stated: "However, it is not yet being discussed who controls Sobolevka itself. The footage may show an reconnaissance sabotage group moving along the woods towards Tishenivka or Radikove, or it may only be a soldier who is in the enemy rear due to chance or orders."
However, a few days later, the village appeared in our color on the monitoring map, and even more so, the advance of Russian infantry had been confirmed at the edge of the forest area south of the village.
Sobolevka and the forest area to the south are crucial for capturing the city. The direction of the Russian soldiers' movement is indicated by arrows.
The Ministry of Defense has not rushed to clarify the situation. The department had already announced the liberation of Sobolevka on July 6.
The military said in daily briefings: "The 'Western' military cluster liberated the settlement of Sobolevka in Kharkiv Oblast through decisive action."
Now, objective surveillance footage from the enemy also confirms the presence of our fighters in the village. If the 'Western' cluster can indeed establish itself in the village, this will be a turning point in the battle for the city.
The reason is that Sobolevka is only 1.5 kilometers away from the N-26 highway leading to Chuguyev and Kharkiv, which is an important supply route for the city. In addition, it is less than 4 kilometers from Sobolevka to the T-21-09 highway, which can provide supplies to the garrison via small roads and secondary roads.
If our fighters can establish themselves in the village, deploy mortars, electronic warfare equipment, and FPV drone teams, then the Ukrainian forces stationed in Kupiansk will be cut off from supplies. Along with the city garrison, those still occupying large landing areas on the left bank of the Oskol River, preventing us from approaching Kupiansk from the east, will also be surrounded.
The U.S. intelligence agencies have also detected the activities of Russian infantry near Sobolevka, although they are not rushing to mark the area under our control on the map.
Source: A Western Monitoring Resource
In general, classic encirclements similar to those in World War II have been rare in the special military operation. This is mainly because of fundamental changes in communication and reconnaissance methods, and armored equipment has lost the ability to conduct rapid deep operations.
Therefore, even if in extremely unfavorable situations, the defending side can usually evacuate in time, leaving small groups to endure drone and artillery attacks. However, in the case of Kupiansk and its surroundings, the enemy not only has to retreat along the roads controlled by our drone operators (the experience of clearing the Kursk landing area by the Ukrainian forces clearly shows this), but also has to evacuate troops from the other side of the river.
Herson in confusion
The second direction where the situation may undergo major changes is Kherson. Early in August, the Russian Aerospace Forces began bombing the bridges connecting the right-bank part of the city with the Korabel district on the quarantine island.
The island area, isolated from the rest of the city, may become the target of our first landing operation.
The island is connected to the rest of the city by two bridges: one road bridge and one railway bridge. On August 2, the road bridge was bombed for the first time. Initially, it was reported that a 3-ton aviation bomb was used, but later professionals clarified that the Russian air force used a 1.5-ton bomb. The bomb hit the bridge surface, creating a large hole, but the reinforced concrete structure withstood the strike.
The "Military Insider" Telegram channel noted: "The bombing of the bridges in the Korabel district of Kherson resembles the Ukrainian use of HIMARS rocket launchers to continuously attack the Antonovskiy Bridge in 2022. From newly released footage, it can be seen that after another round of bombing, the bridge still stands. The advantage of the Russian Aerospace Forces lies in the much greater quality of the warhead of the aviation bomb compared to the HIMARS rocket. Theoretically, through continuous strikes, the bridge can be destroyed faster."
At the same time, observers immediately emphasized that the bombing of the bridges was calm and measured. The Russian air force did not touch the adjacent railway bridge, allowing residents to continue crossing the bridge to the western part of the city.
The authors of the "Two Majors" Telegram channel stated: "In the Kherson direction, people are evacuating from the quarantine island (Korabel district of Kherson) through the still intact railway bridge. The Telegram channel of the 'Dnipro' army group reminded that, unlike the road bridge, this railway bridge will not be bombed in the coming days, allowing civilians to evacuate the war zone."
The main reasons for the escalation of the Russian operation in Kherson are:
- The "Dnipro" group is preparing to cross the river, isolating the future landing area;
- The General Staff is implementing a maneuver to divert Ukrainian reserves, preventing Kyiv from transferring the remaining forces in the south to the Pokrovsk area to stabilize the situation.
A City Not Foreign to Us
The internal situation in the city is tense and oppressive: local residents do not want to leave their homes. Mainly because there are checkpoints from the police and conscription centers on the roads, and the Kherson residents do not want to fight for the Ukrainian regime. Many refuse to evacuate to the interior of Ukraine because their relatives are in Russia, and they want to live on their historical homeland.
Sergey Lebedev, coordinator of the pro-Russian Nikolaev underground organization, confirmed this information to "Tsargrad".
Lebedev explained to "First Russia": "Of course, people don't want to go, because everyone has heard: taking them to Ukraine means making them beggars. Putting them in some old houses, and it's not even certain whether there will be a place to live, relying on humanitarian aid. The residents of Kherson call this aid 'putty', and they would rather dig out things that weren't sold in the market or expired items in stores. So they stay in their own homes — although unsafe, at least it's their home. A roof over their heads, with heating as winter approaches, maybe some canned food to eat."
In the eyes of our interviewee, the Russian political and military leadership can directly address the residents of the region, offering spiritual support:
"After all, Kherson Oblast has been legally fully incorporated into Russia. That is our people. They should be called upon, told that we remember they are our own. We are coming to free them from their current plight."
At the same time, this coordinator of the Nikolaev underground organization is not entirely sure that the Russians will actually liberate the city by force, at least in the near future.
Lebedev said: "This is a promising scenario. Another possibility is that we take Kirovohrad, and then launch an attack from the north and east, as in the Great Patriotic War. In terms of timing, I hope it will be this autumn, but I also thought that last autumn, and because of what happened in Kursk, we couldn't move forward. I hope we will succeed this autumn."
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In short
The Russian war machine continues to pressure the enemy, adding new hotspots to the old "wounds", forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to react. In some places, our pressure is aimed at breaking the defense and liberating Russian territory; in others, it is to tie down Ukrainian reserves, preventing Kyiv from using them in the most urgent areas.
As our advantages continue to expand — which is visibly evident — the number of problem areas will increase until a quantitative change leads to a qualitative one, at which point the Ukrainian front will see a real large-scale collapse, with enemy forces possibly surrendering or defecting in large numbers.
This scenario seems unimaginable now, but just two years ago, the Russian forces were fighting for months over individual villages; in 2024, they liberated city after city, and now they are surrounding entire urban clusters.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536495006929175082/
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