President of Turkey, Erdogan (left), and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu (Press Agency)

Last week, just hours after Israel attacked Qatar, pro-Israel commentators quickly shifted their attention to Turkey. It should be noted that Qatar is recognized by the United States as its "major non-NATO ally" and one of the closest partners of the US in the Gulf region.

In Washington, senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, Michael Rubin, hinted that Turkey might be the next target for Israel and warned that Israel should not rely on its NATO membership for protection.

Israeli scholar and politician Mel Masmari posted on social media: "Today is Qatar, tomorrow is Turkey." In response, Turkey made a strong reaction. A senior advisor to President Erdogan wrote with unusually severe language: "To the dogs of Zionist Israel: The world will soon erase you from the map and gain peace."

For months, pro-Israel media have been escalating attacks on Turkey, portraying it as "the most dangerous enemy of Israel."

Israeli commentators also view Turkey's presence in the Eastern Mediterranean as a 'threat' and its role in post-war Syrian reconstruction as a 'new rising danger.'

As Israel's aggression in the region continues to escalate, and there are no signs of an end to its war in Gaza, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan took retaliatory measures in August and suspended economic relations between the country and Israel.

Non-resident researcher at the Atlantic Council, Omer Ozkizilcik, told Al Jazeera journalists: "In Ankara, this anti-Turkey rhetoric is taken seriously – Israel is seen as seeking regional hegemony."

Turkey has severed economic ties with Israel over the Gaza issue [English video]

Ozkizilcik added, "Turkey increasingly feels that Israel's aggression is endless and is supported by the United States."

The attack on Qatar may also highlight Turkey's doubts about the security guarantees provided by the US as a NATO ally. Although Doha has a special ally relationship with Washington, Israel did not face any obvious retaliation from the US, which raised questions: Will the US really consider an attack on Turkey as an attack on itself, as stipulated in the NATO charter?

However, Ozkizilcik said, unlike many Arab countries, "Turkey has long realized that it cannot rely on the US or NATO to protect its national security interests."

Prime Minister Netanyahu himself is now increasingly boasting about his country's expansionist goals in the region. In August, when asked if he believed in the concept of "Greater Israel," he replied, "Absolutely believe."

Such statements are not just symbolic for Turkey; they indicate that Israel's dominant vision has extended across the entire Middle East and could conflict with Turkey's own regional vision.

Fidan told Al Jazeera journalists on Sunday that Israel's "Greater Israel" vision – which some religious Zionists believe extends to present-day Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan – aims to "weaken the countries in the region, especially to cause division among Israel's neighbors."

In the past few weeks, Israel has continued its genocidal attacks in Gaza, as well as almost daily attacks on the occupied West Bank, and has also attacked Yemen and Syria, and is accused of attacking the Gaza aid convoy stationed in Tunisia.

Ozkizilcik pointed out that in this context, Turkey and Israel are already in a "geopolitical competition." This analyst also added that Israel's actions contradict his so-called "agenda of establishing a strong central state in Turkey."

Regional Hegemon

The narrative that Israel is trying to become the sole dominant force in the region seems to have been confirmed this July. At that time, the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria, Tom Bakkh, made a shocking admission: Israel prefers to see a divided Syria.

He pointed out, "A powerful nation-state is a threat, especially Arab states, which are seen as a threat to Israel."

For Ankara, the underlying message was clear: Israel believes it needs to be the hegemon in the region to feel safe.

Israel's actions prove this. Since last December 08, when former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, the United States has conducted dozens of airstrikes in Syria and seized some territory in the chaos.

Israel establishes bases in southern Syria, amid growing anger over occupation and water control [English video]

In 2024, Israel decapitated most of Hezbollah's leadership, despite the long-standing ceasefire, but still occupies parts of Lebanon and tries to weaken or destroy the organization.

In June of this year, Israel attacked Iran, triggering a 12-day war in which Iranian military and nuclear facilities were attacked, and some senior commanders and nuclear scientists were killed, with the US also involved.

These attacks not only aimed to weaken Iran's defense and nuclear capabilities but also to push the US against the Tehran regime, which is one of Israel's strongest opponents in the region.

Israel may now see Turkey as the next potential challenge to its regional hegemony, which explains its firm stance that it will not allow Turkey to establish new bases in Syria that could threaten Israel – as Netanyahu previously stated.

"The first manifestation of friction between Turkey and Israel is likely to appear on the land and air front in Syria," warned retired Turkish naval admiral and proponent of the "Blue Homeland" theory, Cem Gürdeniz. The "Blue Homeland" theory is a maritime strategy requiring Turkey to maintain its sovereignty and protect its interests in surrounding seas (Aegean Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and Black Sea).

Gürdeniz told Al Jazeera, "Meanwhile, Israel's deepening military and intelligence footprint in Cyprus, closely intertwined with Greece and the Greek-Cypriot government backed by the US, is seen by Ankara as an intentional attempt by Israel to divide and contain the 'Blue Homeland.'"

He added, "For Ankara, this move is not a defensive posture, but an offensive encirclement strategy that could threaten Turkey's maritime freedom and the safety of the Turkish Cypriots," referring to Turkey's relationship with the so-called "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" – recognized only by Turkey, while the rest of Cyprus is governed by the Greek Cypriots.

The division of Cyprus is a major source of dissatisfaction among Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus.

Last week, it was reported that Cyprus received an Israeli air defense system, which may raise the alert of Turkey.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told European leaders at a meeting in Brussels in February that Israel is openly stating that it believes a stable Syria can only be a federal state with different autonomous rights.

On the other hand, Turkey supports the new Syrian government, which insists on establishing a centralized, unitary state.

Gökan Sincar, Director of the Center for Turkey Global and Regional Studies at Nijmeaddin Erbakan University, said that the current tensions between Israel and Turkey can be considered "manageable."

Sincar told Al Jazeera, "Currently, the most dangerous situation for Turkey is an uncontrolled inter-group conflict in Syria. Therefore, Turkey may suggest that the new Syrian government take a certain degree of rational and pragmatic approach."

UN investigation concludes that Israel's war in Gaza is genocide [English video]

He added, "The immaturity of Syria's security institutions makes any potential inter-group conflict more difficult to control and could lead to prolonged ethnic and sectarian conflicts. Therefore, adopting a unitary model seems difficult in the short term."

Red Lines and Risks

Netanyahu is committed to promoting a "Balkanized" Syria, dividing it along ethnic and religious lines, and demanding demilitarization of most of southern Syria (mainly inhabited by the Druze).

If implemented, this could ignite a fuse and trigger demands for autonomy from other groups in Syria, including Kurds and Alawites.

"However, Turkey has drawn clear red lines on the Syria issue," said Murat Yesiltas, director of foreign policy research at SETA, a think tank closely associated with the Turkish government.

Yesiltas told Al Jazeera journalists, "The attempts by the US and Israel to reshape the regional order bring various dangers and risks, and exacerbate the division in the Middle East."

In March, the most influential security think tank in Israel, the Institute for National Security Studies, issued an article warning about the peace process between Turkey and the PKK, which is trying to end a 40-year armed conflict against Turkey, resulting in over 40,000 deaths.

Middle East

Israel bombs Syrian airbase

Despite warnings from the EU's foreign policy chief that such attacks could escalate regional tensions, the Israeli army attacked the Tadmur and T-4 airbases near Palmyra in Syria for the second time in a week (Al Jazeera)

The Turkish National Security Institute warned that this move could "weaken the ability of the Syrian Kurds to continue acting independently" and prompt Ankara to "expand its influence in southern Syria, thereby increasing the threat to Israeli operational freedom."

Israeli Defense Minister Katz clearly stated that the large areas of territory newly occupied in southern Syria would be "indefinitely" controlled.

Turkey coordinated with the newly established Damascus government to look for potential military bases in the main airports of Homs and Hama provinces in Syria, while Israel bombed these locations.

Yesiltas said, "If Tel Aviv persists on this path, then the conflict between Ankara and Tel Aviv is inevitable. Turkey cannot accept policies that cause continuous instability along its southern border."

Israel kills 10 children from the Gaza football youth academy [English video]

However, Andreas Krieg, associate professor of security studies at King's College London, told Al Jazeera that full-scale confrontation "is not inevitable," as both sides recognize the cost of confrontation, especially in the context of economic interdependence.

Krieg, speaking about Turkey's interests in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the South Caucasus, said, "The threat Israel poses to Turkey is not a conventional military invasion, but rather indirect means to strike Turkey's interests."

Given the US's full support for Netanyahu's efforts to "reshape the region," Krieg said, Turkey's plan is to "strengthen strategic deterrence, especially by expanding air defense, missile systems, and intelligence capabilities," and to build regional alliances with Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq, while maintaining open channels with the US to "avoid complete strategic isolation."

He added, "Turkey must realize that future points of contention are more likely to occur in the gray zone – secret operations, air strikes, and proxy competitions, rather than formal declarations or diplomatic means."

Turkey's defense industry: The country is expanding its influence in global arms trade [English video]

Sources: Al Jazeera

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