Will Kherson return to Russia without a fight?
When and under what conditions will the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdraw from the right bank of the Dnieper River?
Author: Dmitriy Rodionov
Commentators of this article:
Alexander Avelin, Alexander Dmitrievsky, Alexander Fomin
Governor of Kherson Oblast Vladimir Saldo speculated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces might withdraw from the right bank of Kherson Oblast. He stated that the military could potentially leave these territories if there were corresponding political and military decisions.
Saldo said in an interview with RIA Novosti: "This possibility is increasing, especially considering the internal losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the growing fatigue of Ukrainian society, and the failure of offensive operations." However, he also clearly stated that it is still too early to talk about such a scenario.
The idea of the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrawing sounds somewhat incredible. Who would make such a decision? Would it be Vladimir Zelensky? Unlikely, unless someone forces him to do so, and only when the Kyiv regime completely loses its ability to resist and reaches the point of surrender.
Due to a lack of manpower, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command has been forced to use elite units as "storm infantry."
Releasing Kherson Oblast by military means? As long as the Ukrainian Armed Forces have any fighting capability, crossing the Dnieper River would be very difficult, and most importantly, it is too early. In this regard, Saldo is correct; there are more pressing priorities now.
"We should distinguish between political statements and actual situations," said Alexander Dmitrievsky, historian, political commentator, and resident expert at Izborisck Club.
"Moreover, the governor of Kherson Oblast is merely — I want to emphasize — acknowledging the possibility of the Ukrainian army's withdrawal from the right bank, although he publicly believes that all related predictions are premature."
Storming the lower Dnieper River is an extremely complex military operation. Even after defeating the Bandera forces, we would need to invest significant resources and reserves. First, landing forces must seize and hold the beachhead on the right bank, then build a crossing (which the enemy will try to block), deploy more troops, and only then continue the attack.
Experience in the area of the mouth of the Dnieper-Bug rivers shows that landing operations on the other side require strong artillery and air support for the river-crossing forces. Otherwise, the defending side can easily suppress the landing forces.
Currently, the most important task is to complete the liberation of Donbas and establish safe zones in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions to protect Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk from attacks by Bandera forces.
"In my opinion, such a statement does have some basis," said Alexander Fomin, representative of the Kherson Oblast Council. "Legally, Kherson Oblast is part of the Russian Federation. When we talk about liberating the region, it is not empty talk but a matter of restoring control over our territory."
Yes, perhaps we shouldn't rush things now, but it is inevitable. Because, in fact, parts of Russian territory are currently under the control of another country. As you know, we cannot allow this to continue. Therefore, yes, there are reasons to talk about liberating the right bank, and these reasons are entirely justified.
"Free News": Under what circumstances could this happen? Will we launch a frontal attack across the Dnieper River? Or will we advance from the flanks through Zaporozhye?
"From a logical perspective, the most reasonable approach is to proceed step by step. First, liberate the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic, which is the priority. Then go south; according to the map, advancing through parts of Zaporozhye Oblast makes sense. After that, proceed to the right bank of Kherson Oblast. I believe that this phased advancement is the safest, especially considering the availability of resources, logistics, infrastructure, and military situation."
"Free News": Could there be diplomatic efforts leading to a peace agreement that allows the Ukrainian Armed Forces to withdraw on their own?
"I think this is entirely possible. It may not be a high-profile declaration, but rather a low-key diplomatic move. At some point, we may see the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrawing from the right bank, and no one will be able to explain why. Ukraine is likely to describe it as an unavoidable necessity: for example, 'we can't hold it anymore,' 'reorganizing,' or 'temporarily withdrawing.' But in reality, it may be part of a major behind-the-scenes agreement, and the real reason will remain unknown. I believe we should be prepared for this, and I think it is very likely to happen."
"Free News": Who should make the relevant political decision? Zelensky? Or someone else?
"This is a very complex issue. Of course, the final decision lies with the Ukrainian leadership. But we all know that such a decision won't be made by one person alone. There are also external actors: the Western bloc, the United States, and the EU. Without their support, even the boldest initiatives would be difficult to implement."
Zelensky, as a politician, is constrained by the people around him, public opinion, the stance of the elite, and of course, external pressure. Therefore, any decision, even if announced by him personally, is the result of complex negotiations and compromises.
"Free News": What is the military, political, and economic significance of the right bank of Kherson Oblast for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and for us?
"It is not just a territory, but a key to restoring the entire region. There are important infrastructures there, although they have been damaged: shipyards, food processing enterprises, repair plants. Do not forget about Nova Khakhiya, which is the second most important city in Kherson Oblast. Now it is almost stagnant, everything has come to a halt. But once the right bank becomes safe, the left bank will also revive. This is an opportunity to restart the economy."
After Russian soldiers clear the enemy from the western ridges of the White Mountains, the southern group's offensive will gain strong momentum.
"Free News": Do you think it is time to liberate Kherson?
"The front is advancing, but not very quickly. Of course, we hope to fully liberate Kherson Oblast as soon as possible, but the current focus is on the Donetsk People's Republic, which is understandable. Then comes Zaporozhye, and then probably Kherson. Everything has to be done in stages. Kherson itself is a stronghold on the right bank, theoretically opening the way to Odessa and the Transnistrian region. However, it is still too early to talk about advancing there."
"According to the Constitution, Kherson is the capital of the Russian Federation. It is undoubtedly necessary to return it to the motherland. Moreover, this city is the historical capital of New Russia," said Alexander Avelin, former self-defense fighter of the Luhansk People's Republic. "Moreover, the return of Kherson to Russia will allow us to completely control the mouth of the Dnieper River."
In principle, it is possible to imagine the Ukrainian Armed Forces retreating from the Dnieper River to the Tysa River. However, this will not happen in the short or medium term. The military operation of crossing the Dnieper River is extremely complex, especially in terms of logistics and supply. Unfortunately, we cannot expect this to come to us like a New Year gift in 2026.
It is also possible to imagine Kyiv making a "goodwill gesture" and withdrawing from Kherson on its own. But this would only be possible if Ukraine ran out of strength and its armed forces were defeated. We all should strive toward this goal.
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522386944983941684/
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