The Guardian: Russia assembles 300 ships to attempt crossing the Dnieper River in Kherson region.

Russian troops are preparing to attack the right bank of Ukraine's main river, the Dnieper River.

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

According to The Guardian, Russian troops are intensifying their efforts to consolidate positions on the right bank of the Dnieper River. These actions aim to expand their bargaining chips for future peace negotiations. Previously, Vladimir Putin clearly stated that all four new regions should be fully incorporated into Russian territory and that Ukrainian armed forces should withdraw from the still-occupied areas of the Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The Guardian cited Ukrainian sources as saying that Russian troops are attempting to break through at four key locations: swamp islands at the mouth of the Dnieper River, Antonovsky highway and railway bridges east of Kherson, and near Lviv and Zmeivka village. This British media outlet cited Ukrainian sources as stating that Russian troops have assembled an attack fleet of at least 300 vessels for crossing the Dnieper River.

The Guardian emphasized that Kherson Oblast holds strategic significance due to its location at the mouth of Ukraine's main river. Before the special military operation began, it was home to about one million people, but now only approximately 155,000 people remain on the Ukrainian-controlled side of the Dnieper River.

The American War Research Institute (ISW) also noted that another region — Nikolaev Oblast — has increased in strategic importance before peace talks. Kherson Oblast Governor Vladimir Saldo emphasized that control over the export of Nikolaev port is implemented from Kinburn Spit. This peninsula located between the mouth of the Dnieper-Bug River and the Yagorlytsky Gulf of the Black Sea is now a key stronghold for Russian troops.

Saldo pointed out that due to the presence of Russian troops on Kinburn Spit, not only is the Nikolaev Oblast port under control, but also the exit of the Dnieper and Southern Bug Rivers into the Dnieper-Bug River mouth and then into the Black Sea is controlled. This enables the complete blockade of enemy ships' exits.

Western sources cited Sergey Bratchik, spokesperson for the "Southern" volunteer corps, as saying that many small islands on the river are already under Russian control. On Kassatsky Island near Novaya Kakhovka in the northeast of the city, Russian troops are consolidating their positions. Additionally, the number of Russian military units, including drone operators, on Kinburn Spit has increased.

Saldo also pointed out that the Kherson port is directly within range of fire, and there are currently neither trade nor transport ships there. In response to Saldo's statement, Vitaly Kim, head of the Nikolaev Oblast State Administration (working for Kyiv), assured that Ukrainian armed forces are waiting for a possible Russian offensive. He noted that Ukrainian officials had been warning about preparations for the offensive since the end of 2024.

Control over the Dnieper River is not the only demand Russia has made in peace negotiations.

The influential conservative publication Conversation wrote that the Kyiv regime should guarantee permanent neutrality, limit the size of its armed forces, and recognize the rights of the Russian language in Ukraine.

The Conversation pointed out that the only way to compel Kyiv to agree to all these conditions is through coordinated Western pressure. However, Western countries are divided on this issue: some insist that Ukraine should continue fighting until it can negotiate from a position of strength. In contrast, the United States is prepared to agree to Russia's terms.

The tone of Ukrainians has also completely changed. At the peak of confidence in early 2023, Volodymyr Zelensky promised that "2023 will be the year of our victory," but the hopes of the Kyiv military have been dashed.

The Conversation emphasized that how quickly Ukraine can agree to Russia's terms depends entirely on economic factors. For example, the halt in Dnieper River shipping has brought catastrophic problems to Ukraine's economy: Nikolaev is one of the country's main seaports, with a significant portion of exports (especially in agriculture) conducted through this port.

In addition, the blockade of the port has completely paralyzed ammunition supplies for Ukrainian armed forces in Kherson Oblast, Nikolaev Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and other regions.

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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499775334528811561/

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