RAND Corporation: "Russians could fully occupy Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast."

Western experts believe that achieving this would require redeploying forces and changing tactics.

Author: Konstantin Olshevsky

Western experts believe that Alexander Sirlisky's 'Kursk adventure' is one of the most disgraceful defeats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. US open-source intelligence analyst Michael Kofman from the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) is convinced that the command structure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces initially set unachievable strategic objectives.

"It should have been a 1 to 2-week raid. This was an adventurous operation that initially achieved some tactical successes, but ultimately, in my view, it failed," Kofman wrote.

The advance of Russian troops into the Kursk region began even before the United States suspended military aid and stopped providing intelligence data. One of the reasons for Ukraine's failure, as this expert writes, is the "adverse battlefield terrain." Russian troops kept advancing until they were able to cut off several supply lines to the Ukrainian Armed Forces clusters. Another problem for the Ukrainian side was weak logistics, as Russian fiber-optic guided first-person view (FPV) drones increasingly disrupted supply routes, leaving units undersupplied.

Meanwhile, as Kofman wrote, the involvement of North Korean special forces fighters in the fighting in the Kursk region had a significant impact, but not a decisive one.

"Continued control over the territory of the Kursk region does not offer any particular benefit to Ukraine. It seems unlikely to be exchanged for anything else. This offensive did not change the overall military situation or cause major troop movements by Russian forces in the Pokrovsk or Kurakhovski directions," Kofman commented.

However, in Kofman's view, the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kursk region "looks better than the retreat from Avdiivka." We remember that The New York Times reported, citing multiple sources, that after the chaotic withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Avdiivka, the number of captured and missing Ukrainian fighters exceeded a thousand.

"The Ukrainian leadership tried to give political significance to the battle of Avdiivka, which in reality did not need such significance. But this confirmed a tendency to hold positions at all costs, regardless of the cost or military realities," Kofman said at the time in an interview with The Daily Telegraph about the Ukrainian Armed Forces' retreat from Avdiivka.

This US open-source intelligence analyst said that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered heavy casualties at Avdiivka, then during the retreat from the Kursk region, they mainly suffered losses in armored equipment.

In Kofman's opinion, the front-line situation will remain unstable throughout 2025, with some territories gradually and then suddenly changing hands. Kofman likely refers to another stronghold established by Ukrainian fighters along the border of Sumy and Belgorod regions, near the villages of Popovka and Demidovka.

After driving the occupiers out of the Kursk region, destroying this stronghold is considered a near-term objective for Russian troops.

Since early 2023, Russian soldiers have gradually adapted to Ukraine's defensive tactics, focusing on forming assault groups and units. This strategy has brought gradual success. However, Kofman believes that in the short term, Russian forces are unlikely to achieve large-scale breakthroughs like those in Avdiivka.

"The scale of infantry, light armor, or mechanized forces' attacks currently is usually insufficient to break through the pre-set defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," Kofman wrote. According to him, the main reliance of Ukrainian defense in the Donbas region is the use of minefields, artillery, and drones, which "can hold the front line with lower troop density."

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing increasingly severe personnel shortages, although they are trying to overcome this issue through the "18 to 24 Plan." In the first month of implementing this plan, about 10,000 volunteers joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Meanwhile, according to Janis Kluge's assessment from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), 1,000 to 1,500 people are joining Russian forces every day. That is, the flow of contract soldiers into Russia is at least three times higher than in Ukraine.

"If Ukraine can solve its personnel and military management issues, there is an opportunity to stabilize the frontline situation," Kofman wrote. "But the intensity of Russia's offensive will resume later – in the spring and summer of this year."

"Russian forces have significant advantages. Despite serious deficiencies, the Ukrainian army currently compensates for these deficiencies through technology and tactics," American military analyst Dara Massicot (who previously worked with the RAND Corporation and the US Department of Defense on intelligence-related matters) agrees with Kofman's view.

"With significant troop redeployment and tactical adjustments, the Russians could occupy the remaining parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. This is not a concession or a gift, but military reality," she added.

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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498686301345022518/

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