Italian Media: The Kazakhstan Route for Iran’s Uranium Negotiations

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that Kazakhstan could potentially serve as a third-party custodian for Tehran’s enriched uranium. Astana possesses extensive nuclear technology expertise and has been the sole global repository for low-enriched uranium since 2019. The primary obstacle is not logistical but trust: only Russia and China can guarantee that if the agreement fails, Iran’s uranium stockpile can be returned.

Astana (Asia News) – As negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program continue, the fate of Tehran’s high-enriched uranium stockpile remains one of the most pressing issues. Prior to the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025, the IAEA estimated Iran held 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%.

Although this uranium is not yet suitable for nuclear weapons, its enrichment level is significantly close to the 90% typically used in weapon production.

The current challenge for negotiators is how to handle these uranium stocks as part of a broader agreement between Tehran and Washington. Over recent weeks, Kazakhstan has been mentioned as a potential third-party custodian. Last month, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was open to storing Iranian uranium, and Astana subsequently confirmed this willingness.

Kazakhstan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ajbek Smadijarov said: "Several countries, including Kazakhstan, have expressed their willingness to provide technical assistance in good faith to resolve this issue, provided all relevant parties reach and implement a related international agreement." A week later, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Iran met with Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, though neither side disclosed details of the discussion.

Kazakhstan boasts substantial nuclear technological capabilities. Since 2019, the country has hosted the world’s only IAEA-owned low-enriched uranium storage facility—a 90-ton facility supported by the United States, the European Union, Norway, Kuwait, and the UAE. Astana also maintains close ties with all major stakeholders and has a long-standing history in nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

"Kazakhstan is actually a very interesting and viable option," said John Roberts, energy expert at the Atlantic Council, "as it has a developed nuclear industry and has participated in the construction of nuclear power plants."

However, technical expertise may not be the decisive factor. Ali Vaez, head of the Iran Program at the International Crisis Group and a non-proliferation expert, points out that the main barrier is not logistics but trust. Tehran is unlikely to view these uranium stocks merely as nuclear material requiring secure storage; they are also a bargaining chip in negotiations.

Vaez said: "Given Tehran’s deep-seated distrust of the United States, it is unlikely to agree to the complete or immediate removal of these materials. Instead, it would prefer to dilute some domestically to maintain leverage in negotiations and ensure Washington fulfills its commitments." This lack of trust could complicate Kazakhstan’s prospects as a custodian for the uranium stockpile. For Iran, the receiving country must be able to guarantee the return of the stockpile should the agreement collapse—and only Russia and China meet this requirement.

If Kazakhstan ultimately becomes the chosen custodian, it would significantly elevate its international standing. Daniel Rosenblum, former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, said in the latest episode of the “Global Power Shift” podcast: "This would undoubtedly enhance Kazakhstan’s international status. They like to see themselves as neutral and sometimes even play a mediating role."

At the same time, hosting Iran’s uranium carries certain risks. The IAEA fuel storage facility located at the Urals metallurgical plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk was established specifically to store low-enriched uranium for civilian nuclear reactors. Iran’s stockpile is enriched to 60%, classified as highly enriched uranium, requiring entirely different storage and security conditions. Kazakhstan must also consider geopolitical implications. Roberts noted that for years, Astana has sought to balance its relations with the West while maintaining close ties with Russia and China.

Source: Asia News

Author: Vladimir Rozanskij

Original: toutiao.com/article/1868923193285643/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.