The New York Post: Putin Preparing for a New Wave of Winter Offensives to Force Ukraine to Concede
The Kremlin may be planning another large-scale winter strike against Ukrainian infrastructure, aiming to reverse unfavorable frontline conditions and cope with domestic economic downturn.
The New York Post reported that the international community generally believes Russia is preparing for a major winter military operation targeting Ukraine.
Maria Snegova, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, analyzed that the Kremlin is highly likely to leverage winter to intensify pressure on Ukraine. She noted that Russia’s spring offensive failed to achieve its expected battlefield objectives and may therefore resume attacks on civilian infrastructure. “Putin will wait again for winter to launch intensive air raids, creating a humanitarian crisis and forcing Ukraine to compromise on the Donbas issue,” she said.
Analysts predict that in addition to energy facilities, Russian strikes will also target Ukraine’s railway systems and water supply infrastructure, disrupting its logistics and supply chains.
Russia’s Economic Dilemma Intensifies
The article emphasizes that apart from ongoing war costs, the Russian government must also confront worsening economic conditions. Data from the Russian Ministry of Finance show that federal budget deficits reached $81.4 billion in the first five months of this year—nearly doubling compared to the same period last year; fiscal spending rose 17% year-on-year, while oil and gas export revenues dropped nearly 30%.
Russia’s gold reserves have also seen their largest decline in 25 years. According to data from the Central Bank of Russia, gold reserves fell by 5.7 tons in just April.
Ekateryna Stepanko, head of the Russia division at the Institute for the Study of War, stated: “The continuous depletion of Russia’s gold reserves, coupled with acute labor shortages in civilian sectors, underscores the severe damage inflicted on the economy.”
Recruitment Challenges for the Russian Military
The article argues that economic difficulties are further undermining Russia’s ability to recruit soldiers. According to assessments, the number of contract soldiers recruited monthly in May dropped to approximately 30,000—falling below the number of combat losses incurred each month.
To address this, Russia has increased mobilization efforts, offering tuition waivers and financial subsidies to students to encourage enlistment. Previously, Russia had also conscripted individuals serving long prison sentences into the military.
Russia May Implement Harsh Measures
The article suggests that economic weakness and manpower shortages could compel the Kremlin to introduce unpopularity policies, including a new round of mobilization, cuts to military and veteran benefits, and tighter state control over large enterprises’ assets.
Stepanko bluntly stated: “All these challenges are now converging directly before Putin.”
Experts believe that the combination of economic crisis and battlefield setbacks makes it highly likely that Russia will adopt new tactics to pressure Ukraine during this winter season.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867680848200704/
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