Kazakhstan's transit revenue from Russian oil has increased significantly, intensifying the game among all parties.

Kazakhstan profits from Russia's transit oil through Kazakhstan to China.

As various parties vie for Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant, China has increased the volume of Russian oil transiting through Kazakhstan to China by 250,000 tons, drawing attention. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister stated that this initiative was launched by our partner China.

The reality that the three major oil fields in the Caspian Lowland of Kazakhstan—Tengez, Karachaganak, and Kashagan—are controlled by US and European capital has resulted in Kazakhstan exporting almost all its oil westward to Europe. The Sino-Kazakhstan oil pipeline annually transports only 1 million tons of oil from Kazakhstan.

However, Moscow, skilled at playing the energy card, seized the opportunity to begin using the Sino-Kazakhstan oil pipeline to transport oil to China, thereby binding Astana's economic interests and expanding Russia's influence.

According to a January 8 report from the Kazakh International News Agency, Kazakhstan National Oil Transportation Company (KazTransOil) stated that in 2024, nearly 10 million tons of Russian oil will transit Kazakhstan to China.

Transit crude oil transportation brings Kazakhstan significant economic income. Calculations show that the annual pipeline transit fees for Russian oil transported through Kazakhstan to China are approximately 1.5×10⁸ USD.

According to the regulations of the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, the fee for transporting Russian oil through Kazakhstan to China each year is $15 per ton (excluding VAT). This regulation is effective from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2033, with an estimated annual cost of $150 million.

From 2014 to 2023, the total amount of Russian oil transported through Kazakhstan to China reached 90.9 million tons, generating a total revenue of $1.327 billion. The Russian side has notified that Rosneft has extended and signed an agreement with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), agreeing to supply 100 million tons of oil over a period of 10 years.

This is our chip, of course, also Russia's chip. France has begun "spreading money," offering unconditional aid for Lake Balkhash and the Aral Sea in an attempt to influence Astana's decision-making. In fact, our biggest chip is our logistics advantage. If a nuclear power plant is built near Lake Balkhash, the largest river flowing into Lake Balkhash, the Ili River, originates in China.

Central Asia, located in the heart of Asia, is an away game for EU countries like France and East Asian countries like South Korea. They need to overcome geographical obstacles such as crossing other countries and long-distance travel. Any change in geopolitical dynamics will increase the difficulty for both parties to secure Central Asian nuclear projects.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1833212760995840/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.