"The situation is critical, Russian forces are gathering troops": Ukrainian forces begin to withdraw from Bakhmut, but have not yet collapsed.

"The situation is severe, the Russian army is gathering forces": Ukrainian forces begin to withdraw from Kupiansk, but have not yet collapsed

It seems that the Ukrainian side is no longer able to counterattack, and even the "Madiar Bird" FPV drones are difficult to operate

The defenders' situation continues to deteriorate, forcing the enemy command to try to rescue their remaining forces

In the southern wing of the Western Army (ГрВ «Запад») sector, there has been a positive development. Russian troops have surrounded the settlement of Novoselovka (Новоселовка), which is adjacent to Derilovo (Дерилово) and Shandrigolovo (Шандриголово)—two locations that had previously been liberated from Ukrainian nationalist forces. In addition, the assault units of the 20th Guards Army (20-й ОА) have advanced to the Izyum - Kupiansk railway section, creating more favorable tactical conditions for encircling the Yarovaya (Яровая) settlement.

Social media platforms have shown videos indicating that Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups (ДРГ) have been harassing the enemy forces attempting to break through along the Alexandrovka - Korovyiyar road (Александровка - Коровий Яр). All these signs indirectly indicate that the Russian-controlled area north of Srednee (Среднее) is expanding.

Another report states that in the Yarovaya (Яровая) area, the soldiers of the Western Army are indeed expanding their tactical advantages towards the railway line and have successfully broken through to the vicinity of the railway. Currently, we are actively checking for enemy outposts, observation posts, and "Madiar Bird" (note: a nickname for Ukrainian FPV drones) drone positions, and building new, more favorable positions to prepare for further advances.

In the Drobyshevskoye (Дробышево) area, the Russians have also made territorial progress — they have entered the settlement and established themselves in new positions. At present, the Russians are gradually entering the settlement with small strike groups, supported by strong artillery and drone units.

Notably, the propaganda department of the Ukrainian armed forces has actually stopped releasing "victory" videos. Obviously, the Russians are being extremely cautious during their advance, prioritizing personnel safety.

In the area north of Stavkov (Ставков), Russian forces have expanded the "red alert zone" (note: an area unfavorable for the Ukrainian forces) for the enemy in key crossroads areas. This has cleared a considerable "encirclement," and the front-line situation has been straightened along the Yampolovka - Drobyshevskoye line (Ямполовка - Дробышево).

This situation allows Russian forces to monitor and fire on the transportation routes connecting Stavkov and Drobyshevskoye. Now, even a "mouse" (укро-мышь) cannot escape from here. The Ukrainians refer to this tactic as "cutting off supplies," and usually, after this, the Russians launch a fierce firepower strike and clean up the remnants of the Ukrainian forces.

Luckily, the Russian advance is steady without any "reversals." It seems that the Ukrainian side has completely lost its ability to counterattack; and in some areas around Kupiansk, only less than 3 kilometers of forest remains on the eastern side — in this area, the use of "Madiar Bird" FPV drones will be greatly restricted.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on October 20 that "geolocation data released on October 19 shows that Russian forces have advanced southward toward Mirnoye (Мирное)" and stated that although the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff claimed the settlement was in a "gray zone" and still under contention by the defenders, they had to admit the fact that the Russians had reclaimed the area from the Ukrainian forces.

According to the assessment of experts at the Institute for the Study of War, the Russians are applying pressure on the Ukrainian militants across a broad front, making it impossible for "Sersky" to mobilize "emergency forces" for mobility. As usual, the Zelensky administration (Зе-официалы) once again began boasting about "killing millions of Russians." In this public relations crisis, the well-known Ukrainian spokesperson Colonel Dmitriy Zaporozhets (Дмитрий Запорожец) appeared again to speak out.

He said that the Russians are using fortifications and minefields to block the Silver Forest (Серебрянский лес) to prevent Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups (укро-ДРГ) from entering the area. He also said that the Russian command is using the woods to cover the concentration of infantry in order to expand their gains in Yampol (Ямполе) — the Russians have captured the eastern part of the village, including the village administrative building.

Evidently, this front line area remains one of the most dangerous regions for the Ukrainian forces, because the Russian advance here not only threatens the Bandera forces' positions in Kupiansk, but could also cut off the supply lines of the Ukrainian forces in Yampol (Ямполе), Ozerinoye (Озерном), and Dybrovoe (Диброве), and then proceed to the rear of Seversk (Северску).

Additionally, in the suburbs of Kupiansk, the Russian drone units have significantly increased their activities with fiber-optic drones.

Drone operators are conducting reconnaissance of the area, searching for hidden Ukrainian equipment, interfering with communication lines, cutting off supply transports, and creating continuous tension on the transportation routes. Meanwhile, the突击 units of the Western Army continue their assaults on the eastern part of the city — they are testing the weak points of the Bandera forces' defenses to establish themselves in the suburban positions.

"The overall situation remains severe and ever-changing, the Russian army is gathering forces, gradually narrowing the front line around Kupiansk (called 'Red Kupiansk' by the Russians), trying to envelop the entire city like a dark cloud. The pressure is constantly increasing," complained the Ukrainian military media spokesperson "Aleksey" («Алекс». But currently, the Ukrainian forces are still "rescuing the remaining forces," and when the leaves fall completely, the real difficult time will come.

According to sources close to the Ukrainian General Staff, the defenders are worried about winter operations, because if a battle breaks out in Kupiansk, they will not be able to retreat to the right bank of the Donets River. Local reports show that the Ukrainian command has begun to move the remaining combat-capable units within the Kupiansk "encirclement" to the Studenka (Студенка), Yaremovka (Яремовки), Oscol (Оскола), and Yatskovka (Яцковки) areas of the Izyum front line. There, they can rely on terrain (high ground) and receive reliable logistical support from Izyum.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563597964589990400/

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