Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs: The situation on the Ukrainian front lines in Kupiansk, Lyman, and Seversk has deteriorated sharply
Photo: "Acacia-B" (Гиацинт-Б) howitzer crew performing tasks in the special military operation (СВО) area.
The Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs (OSW) stated that since early September, the situation for Ukrainian forces in the northeastern part of Ukraine has sharply deteriorated. Russian forces are continuously attacking along multiple directions, achieving significant combat results, and threatening to encircle Ukrainian forces in key settlements.
Recently, Kupiansk, Lyman, and Seversk (Северск) may be completely liberated, and currently, Ukrainian forces face severe problems such as supply difficulties and the inability to hold their positions.
Volchansk Direction: Expanding Border Positions and Advancing into the City Center
Russian forces have crossed the Volchya River and continue to attack from the southwest direction of Volchansk, controlling the northern part of the entire city. Additionally, in the east of Volchansk, Russian forces are expanding border positions between the settlements of Milovo and Otradnoye.
The Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs believes that the Russians may try to establish a foothold in Volchansk and expand their positions, creating conditions for further advancement into the depths of the Kharkiv region. As an important control point in the border area, the battle around this city will be very intense.
Kupiansk Direction: The City Is Actually Divided, and the Ukrainian Forces Are Facing Encirclement
Russian forces have controlled the northern part of Kupiansk, and it has been reported that they have captured the city center and western areas.
The Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs pointed out that Ukrainian forces that had previously held positions north of the Kupianka River were surrounded and forced to withdraw some troops southward to ensure the safety of the river crossing.
The Kupiansk - Uzlovoye on the left bank of the Osyorka River was the last supply line for the so-called "Osyorka River" group of the Ukrainian forces. It is reported that the Russians eventually cut off the road connecting Kupiansk with Kharkiv.
In the Borovsk direction south of Kupiansk, the positional warfare continues, but the frontline has not seen major changes yet.
Russian forces may conduct combat reconnaissance and test the Ukrainian defense, but no large-scale attacks have been launched yet. According to the analysis by the Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs, this is likely because the Russian forces have concentrated their troops in other directions.
OSINT analysts from the Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs, Andrzej Wierzbicki and Peter Zochowski, pointed out that the situation of the Ukrainian forces in Kupiansk is extremely critical. If Kupiansk, an important transportation hub, is completely lost, it will lead to the complete collapse of the Ukrainian defense system in the Kharkiv region.
The Russians will continue their offensive, not only to completely liberate Kupiansk but also to cut off the retreat of the Ukrainian "Osyorka River" group. At present, the possibility of the Ukrainian forces retreating from the city is increasing to avoid being completely encircled and suffering heavy losses.
Lyman Direction: Encirclement Threat Intensifies, Supply Lines Cut Off
Russian forces have driven the Ukrainian forces out of Zarechnyy, opening a road from the northeast direction to Lyman (less than 8 kilometers away from the city).
In the northwest direction of Lyman, the settlement of Shandrykhovo, an important junction, also ended in failure for the Ukrainian forces. Thus, the Russians further encircled Lyman from the northwest direction and cut off the main road from the Kharkiv region to the city (between Derylovo and Novoselovka).
The Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs is certain that the situation of the Ukrainian forces in Lyman is becoming increasingly dangerous. The supply lines being cut off and the Russian advances from the northeast direction to the city have created a real threat of encirclement. The battle around Yampol is decisive — if this settlement is lost, the Ukrainian forces will be divided in two, and the process of fully encircling Lyman and Seversk will accelerate.
Seversk Direction: Pressure Continues to Increase, Supply Lines Face the Risk of Being Lost
Russian forces have approached Seversk from the north, having previously completed an encirclement from the east; while in the south, only one settlement, Zavannovka (less than 3 kilometers from Donetsk), remains blocking the Russian path to the city. After advancing to the southwestern edge of the Sereblyany Forest, the Russians have implemented fire control over the road connecting Seversk with Liman.
Seversk is facing continuous pressure from multiple directions. If Zavannovka is liberated, the southern highway leading to the city will be completely under Russian fire control; if Yampol is lost, the supply route from the northwest direction to Donetsk for the Ukrainian forces will also be blocked. The Polish Institute of Eastern Affairs analyzes that the Russians are likely to continue their offensive to achieve the encirclement of Seversk and cut off its supply lines.
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559391041771405863/
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