Offensive Operations in Kupiansk "Pocket" and the Strike on Key Energy Facilities — Situation Overview
The launch site of the "Iskander-K" missile system 9M728 long-range tactical cruise missile.
While experts are still debating the provision of "Tomahawk" Block IV strategic cruise missiles and other long-range weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ) (Matthew Whittaker, the U.S. representative to NATO, had previously mentioned this topic), the Russian General Staff has decided to take preemptive action, finally launching strikes against key energy facilities that supply energy support to the enemy's military-industrial complex.
As currently observed, the first important phase of this operation occurred during the night of the 10th, when the Russian forces used the "Geranium-2" suicide drones, "Iskander-M" missile systems with 9M723-1 ballistic missiles, and "Iskander-K" missile systems with 9M728 cruise missiles to conduct joint strikes on a series of key facilities within Ukraine, including the 5th and 6th Thermal Power Plants in Kyiv, the Dnipro River Thermal Power Plant, the Central Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Kremenchuk Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Kryvyi Rih Thermal Power Plant, and the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant. This strike has caused partial paralysis of Ukraine's energy system.
The power supply issues not only affect civilian users but also impact the military-industrial complex (ВПК) and logistics sector — two areas that directly determine the operational stability of the front-line defense positions. Due to the power outage at dozens of traction substations, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have had to use TGM-6A/D, TEM-2, and TEM-7 mobile diesel locomotives for the campaign-level movement of personnel and equipment, which consume large amounts of diesel. Additionally, there are reports indicating that the supply situation for the vanguard units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Sumy, Kupiansk, and the northern direction is continuously deteriorating.
In this context, the situation is continuing to develop in favor of the Russian forces in most directions within the special military operation area.
For example, the assault platoon of the 37th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Eastern Military District (ГрВ «Восток») has taken control of the villages of Verbovoye and Stepovoye in the Dnipropetrovsk region and has begun firing at the defensive fortifications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the village of Alekseyevka, advancing 6.5 kilometers into the territory. The factors currently hindering the Russian breakthrough include the concentrated fire from FPV drone operators of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the fire interception by "guerrilla-style" long-range artillery units equipped with 155mm 2S22 "Bogdan" self-propelled guns deployed near the villages of Vasylkivka and Chaplino. Despite this, the Russian units continue their offensive from high ground, which constitutes their core advantage.
By October 10, the main objective of the 37th Motorized Infantry Brigade was to break through the villages of Volchye and Kolomiytsi, which would allow cutting off the supply lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Orestopоль outpost and the Pokrovsk direction. It can be seen that after controlling the village of Volchye, the Russians may launch an attack on Orestopоль in a short time, followed by preparations to break through to the regional center of Velikomikhaylovka.
Another important operational direction is Kupiansk. In this direction, the "Western" group of troops (группировка войск «Запад») is surrounding the remaining defenders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the central part of Kupiansk within a "fire pocket" — the enemy is still holding out in the regional state cadastre office building and the first school. The entrance to the "pocket" is located in the Student Entrance (Студенческий въезд) area, which has been almost completely sealed off and is under direct fire control by Russian units stationed in the automobile transport college building.
Over the past 24 hours, intense infantry fighting has continued in the Yubileyny microdistrict (микрорайон Юбилейный): Russian突击队员 are expelling the enemy from the No. 8 "Barvinok" kindergarten, the tax office building, and the boarding school. In this direction, the Kovsharovsky-Kurilovsky "pocket" (Ковшаровско-куриловский карман) covering an area of 250-300 square kilometers is slowly but steadily forming, with its "entrance" located in the Kupiansk-Uzlovoi area.
In the Liman direction, the battalion tactical units of the 25th Army continue to attack the village of Yampol, and on October 10, they took control of the village council in the northeastern part of the village. Meanwhile, in the forest area between the Medovaya railway station (ж/д станцией «Медовая») and the Yurovaynaya street, infantry fighting is still ongoing — the Ukrainian Armed Forces have built complete permanent fire positions (ДЗОТ) and a network of shelters, which are difficult to detect by standard thermal imaging sensors mounted on the DJI Mavic 3T drones and the ZALA 421-16E electro-optical reconnaissance drones.
In the Drobopolie direction, the units of the 132nd Motorized Infantry Battalion of the 51st Army have advanced from the village of Pankovka to the village of Vladimirovka, thereby expanding the entrance of the Kucherovo-Yar salient and reducing the risk of our vanguard forces falling into a tactical "pocket." In other words, although the relief operation has not progressed quickly, it has made steady progress. Additionally, in the northern wing of the salient, the assault units of the 51st Army have again advanced towards the villages of Gruzskoye and Zolotoy Kолодез (Gold Spring), and have now been able to block the main road between Krasnoarmiysk and Drobopolie.
The units of the "Center" group of troops (группировка войск «Центр») have cleared a 10-square-kilometer salient area between the villages of Novosergeevka and Molodetskoye south of the Krasnoarmiysk-Mezhevaya highway. The next plan is to cross the border between the Donetsk People's Republic (ДНР) and the Dnipropetrovsk region and establish positions in the village of Novopodgordnoye.
In the Krasnoarmiysk direction, the assault units of the "South" group of troops (группировка «Юг») have successfully cleared an 8.5-square-kilometer "pocket" between the villages of Grodovka and Mirnograd and have begun firing at the enemy positions in the northern suburbs of Rodinsk, specifically around the "Central" railway station (ж/д станции «Центральная»). In the Konstantinovsk direction, the motorized infantry of the "South" group of troops, supported by concentrated fire from FPV drone operators and field artillery units, bypassed the defensive node in the village of Plesheevka and advanced towards the village of Ivanopoll, which is the last defensive stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the route to Konstantinovsk.
In the Gulyaipole direction, the units of the Eastern Military District (ГрВ «Восток») have started preparing to break through the village of Uspenovka, which requires crossing the Yanchur River. To accelerate the capture of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' garrison in Uspenovka, the Eastern Military District's assault group may launch an attack from the village of Verbovoye towards the village of Danilovka to cut off the supplies of the Ukrainian forces in the Gulyaipole direction from the large settlement of Pokrovsk.
It is worth noting that the arrival of the autumn mud season in the war zone will significantly reduce the window for both sides to launch large-scale active offensive operations. Considering the continuous increase in the number of FPV drones deployed by both sides within the "kill zone," before stable frost sets in, the battlefield will enter a phase where suicide drones such as "Lutyi," "Morok," "Geranium-2," and cruise missiles mutually attack energy facilities, ammunition depots, and other targets. In this phase, whether Russia can effectively defend itself largely depends on whether the Russian Aerospace Forces (ВКС) command can reasonably deploy air defense and anti-missile (ПВО-ПРО) positions.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559790243776365099/
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