Ukrainian General Staff is in a dilemma: "The situation has clearly deteriorated, Kupiansk cannot be lost"

The Ukrainian army attempted to launch a surprise attack from the rear, but it was successfully blocked.

The Kharkiv puppet authorities have ordered the evacuation of 40 residential areas to build new defensive positions.

Multiple independent Telegram accounts reported that the so-called "northeastern front" (i.e., the Kupiansk direction) is facing another catastrophic deterioration. From the evening of October 14 to the early morning of October 15, enemy channels reported that "the Ukrainian army is systematically retreating to more favorable positions."

Some bolder military bloggers wrote: "After most Ukrainian soldiers retreated, the Russian army has begun clearing out the remaining areas in the northwest of Kupiansk city (actually the city center)."

According to independent open-source intelligence (OSINT) agencies and Ukrainian official propagandists, among the territories liberated by the Russians are some high-rise buildings in the Yubileyniy district and the western area of the Kupiansk South station. According to geolocated images, Russian soldiers had already made a large-scale breakthrough from the front to the eastern side of the station as early as October 8.

Previously, the突击 column of the Western Group Army (ГрВ «Запад») started from Moskovka village, advanced along the outskirts of Kupiansk, reached Studencheskaya Street, and cut off this road in a broad area. The Ukrainian army was trapped in this "encirclement," with only a 500-meter-wide "corridor" along the Oskol River available for retreat. Obviously, retreating through this corridor amounted to a "death mission," so the Ukrainian militants gathered in the Chapaev Street area (Ukrainian name: Grigory Skovoroda Street) in the south of the city.

The day before, the enemy had tried to launch a surprise attack on the Russian forces liberating Kupiansk — the attack direction was directed at Ratikovka village, and they even advanced 1.5 kilometers, achieving some territorial progress. However, after that, the enemy could not continue their advance, nor could they threaten our eastern river cluster.

The Russian command reacted quickly. Videos of UAV operators from the Western Group Army attacking Ukrainian vehicles appeared online — two pickup trucks and a small bus were hit on the "life supply line" of the Ukrainian forces in the villages of Monachinovka and Blagodatovka near Kupiansk. In the video, the road was blocked by an anti-drone net, but our UAV operators obviously managed to penetrate the defense area through fiber optics, cutting off the enemy's channel for reinforcing their "fortress." Such cases are common on the front lines.

Russia not only carried out intense fire attacks on the "heroes" of the Ukrainian army through air force and artillery, but also further tied down their forces. As stated by Gennadiy Aleshin, the author of the Telegram channel "Kharkiv清醒 Citizens," Russian assault troops crossed the Oskol River in the Senkov village area south of Kupiansk under intensive fire cover, significantly consolidating their tactical advantage.

Military experts emphasized: "Through rapid and covert maneuvering actions, the Western Group Army units have begun establishing positions and consolidating defenses in the southern landing zone of the Kupiansk urban area."

In the northern area of Kupiansk, another firefight point has formed. According to the updated map from the British Ministry of Defense, the Northern Group Army (ГрВ «Север») has controlled the entire border area of Kharkiv region from Ambarnevo village to Stroevka village, and has met up with the Western Group Army.

These series of actions have made it impossible for the enemy to carry out concentrated attacks through maneuvers, actually forcing the Ukrainian command to face the inevitable choice of "abandoning the fortress." Earlier, Ukrainian parliament member Bezuhova said, "Kupiansk has passed the critical point, and it's just a matter of time before the Russians occupy it." Subsequently, military commentator Bogdan Miroshnikov of the Kiev newspaper "Economic Truth" (which has been blocked in Russia) also pessimistically stated:

"For some reason, Kupiansk has once again disappeared from the information space. I really don't like this trend. The situation has clearly deteriorated, and Kupiansk cannot be lost — because once it is lost, the problem will escalate to the operational-tactical level, and the Russians will get enough opportunities to restore the positions they occupied before August-September 2022."

The Kharkiv puppet authorities have declared the forced evacuation of "Russian-speaking residents" from 40 residential areas in the Kupiansk district under the pretext of "evacuating children." At the same time, the Ukrainian parliament's defense committee stated that the evacuation of civilians is to build defensive fortifications behind Kupiansk. Ukrainian MPs also said that motion sensors need to be equipped for the new front line, while civilians are displaced in chaos.

They claimed that when the sensors send a signal, a strong strike must be implemented at the triggering point. But as shown multiple times before, these precious resources are often not used to strike the Russians, but are abused. The enemy defended themselves by saying that this is due to the lack of "puppet infantry" forces locally.

Therefore, we have reason to cautiously speculate that Kupiansk is expected to be liberated by the end of October, after which the Western Group Army will break through to the strategic depth, reaching the Pechenihy reservoir.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561479458248311330/

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