Think Tank: "U.S.-Israel War Against Iran" Drives Global Consumers Toward Electric Vehicles.

The fuel price shock triggered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing global consumers toward electric vehicles.

Although the Iran conflict unfolded far from the Middle Eastern battlefronts, it has unexpectedly influenced our struggling energy transition. Particularly noteworthy is that consumers are re-evaluating an obvious choice in transportation: electric vehicles (EVs). Especially when gasoline supplies are precarious, EVs offer a glimmer of hope for personal energy independence in a volatile, ever-changing transportation market.

Midway Through the Transition: A Global Surge in Electric Vehicle Adoption

Before the current conflict erupted, EV adoption was primarily concentrated in emerging economies—India, Mexico, and Brazil—where EV sales surged rapidly, outpacing developed economies like the U.S. and Japan. Now, with the Strait of Hormuz facing navigation difficulties and global oil prices soaring, this appears to have delivered an unexpected boost to the EV market, leading to increased demand and sales worldwide.

In early 2026, U.S. EV sales stalled; Q4 2025 sales dropped to their lowest level since late 2022, due to the expiration of Biden-era government EV subsidies without renewal. Meanwhile, many domestic U.S. automakers quietly reduced investments in EV production. However, data from Q1 2026 shows global EV sales rose 12% year-over-year and 17% quarter-over-quarter.

"The impact of the Iran conflict hasn't fully shown up in March's data yet, but it may have played a role," said Liu Chris, senior analyst at Omdia based in Shanghai. "In many markets structurally well-suited for EVs, adoption has been slow—simply because consumers lacked urgency," he noted. "The sharp rise in fuel prices has changed that." McKinsey consultancy predicts further growth in EV sales across major regions, with 45% of Chinese consumers, 23% of European consumers, and 12% of American consumers stating they will choose an EV for their next vehicle.

While the U.S. EV market remains politically sensitive, in the UK, EV sales hit a record high, with 86,120 units sold in March alone. At the same time, French used-car retailer Aramisauto reported that its EV sales share rose from 6.5% on February 16 to 12.7% on March 9. In contrast, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales share fell from 34% to 28%, while diesel car sales dropped from 14% to 10%.

In Asia, South Korea reported that EV registrations last month more than doubled compared to the same period last year. Bloomberg reported booming sales of electric three-wheelers in Pakistan.

New Zealand’s Transport Minister Chris Bishop reported, "During the week ending March 22, over 1,000 new EVs were registered in New Zealand—almost double the previous week—and this marks the highest weekly registration volume since late 2023." Australia, which has seen consistent growth in EV sales in recent years, also reported another surge in EV sales.

The global trend in EV sales is clear—but who stands to benefit the most?

Who Benefits as Consumers Seek the Best Energy Option?

China is poised to gain significantly from the renewable energy transition. In March this year, China’s passenger vehicle exports grew by 82.4% year-on-year. Sales of new-energy passenger vehicles—including pure electric and plug-in hybrid models—also surged, rising over 140% compared to the same period in 2025 and increasing by 31% since February.

Large Chinese automakers such as BYD and Geely are intensifying their overseas expansion efforts and have already expanded production facilities beyond China. They are now ready to seize opportunities arising from any market shifts.

Consumers Driving EV Adoption

A unique aspect of this energy transition is that consumers have autonomy in choosing EVs. The energy market largely lies outside consumer control, as grid and infrastructure transitions require time and higher-level institutional and governmental action. However, EVs provide an option that delivers immediate personal benefits.

Just as people during the Cold War stockpiled supplies for fallout shelters, driving an EV—requiring only charging—liberates consumers, at least in their own perception. Since 1998, automakers have been developing EV models, and many countries have begun building charging networks. Thus, in times like these, consumers feel that switching from today’s unstable energy situation to a brand-new EV is an incredibly attractive choice.

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Energy transitions are driven by multiple factors, and the war with Iran appears to be just the latest catalyst. Oxford University professor Jan Rosenow recently wrote: "Electric vehicles are expected to have significantly lower operating costs than conventional gasoline-powered cars during the upcoming energy crisis." Consumers have already noticed this!

Source: The National Interest

Author: Brian C. Black

Original: toutiao.com/article/1862821791427658/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.