US President Donald Trump met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last month (French media)
President Trump exacerbated Turkey's economic crisis during his first term, but there was a significant shift in relations between Turkey and the US during his second term. The praise from Trump for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also brought about a notable improvement in economic relations between the two countries.
Target Phase
From 2018 to 2019, the Trump administration took a series of measures against Turkey's comprehensive trade protectionist policies, imposing tariffs on steel imports from Ankara, the capital of Turkey, citing national security concerns.
The US escalated the trade war starting in March 2018, when the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on steel imports from Turkey. This move marked the beginning of a sharp deterioration in bilateral trade relations.
Trump did not stop there. In August 2018, he increased pressure on Turkey. At that time, Turkey was experiencing an economic crisis, with its currency depreciating by over 80% and inflation reaching a record high of 25%. He doubled the tariff on steel imports from Turkey to 50%, increased the tariff on aluminum imports by another 10%, bringing the total tariff to 20%.
The US government used tariffs as a punitive measure to protest the detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson by Turkey. Brunson was accused of collaborating with the Fethullah Gulen movement, which is blamed for the failed coup attempt in 2016.
Cautionary Response
Turkey quickly responded to the US measures, deciding to impose tariffs on approximately $1.8 billion worth of US imported products. Despite concerns that the US pressure could cause greater and deeper economic damage, especially after Trump announced doubling the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the Turkish lira further fell by 19%.
S-400 Crisis
After the US refused to provide the "Patriot" air defense system to Turkey, Turkey turned to Russia as an alternative - the S-400 system. This intensified the crisis between the two countries. The US imposed penalties on Turkey's defense industry, expelling it from the F-35 fighter jet program and causing Turkey to lose about $900 million, as Turkish companies manufactured around 900 different components of this globally popular fifth-generation fighter jet.
In December 2020, the US imposed sanctions on the Turkish Defense Industry Presidency, including financial and financing sanctions, as well as a ban on US weapons export licenses and permits to Turkey.
Counterproductive
The measures taken by the US government did not reduce Turkey's imports or expand the trade surplus with Turkey. Instead, data from the US Census Bureau showed that US imports from Turkey continued to grow, exceeding exports, achieving a surplus of over $4 billion in 2021, lower than the $3.87 billion in 2017.
Turks took this opportunity to start pushing for increasing bilateral trade to $100 billion and declared this number as a top priority. The flexibility and success of Turkish companies (especially those not subject to sanctions) in diversifying markets and products, along with the positive impact of the lira depreciation (which enhanced the competitiveness of Turkish export products), all these factors brought great commercial success and stability to the US market.
New Beginning, New Perspective
During his second term, President Trump consistently expressed admiration and respect for the Turkish president. This admiration even became the driving force for deepening economic cooperation and taking concrete measures to achieve this goal.
Although the tariffs imposed by Trump on multiple countries had negative effects, their impact on Turkey was minimal, with Turkey being placed on a low tariff list of 15%. The Turkish Trade Ministry considered this a "positive" move, and the US continued to regard Ankara as a balanced and positive trade partner.
These low tariffs gave Turkish export products a competitive advantage, making them more cost-effective compared to export products from countries with higher tariffs. Data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows that exports from Turkey grew by 4.1% in the first half of this year, reaching over $131 billion.
The institute's data shows that 58 out of 97 industries achieved growth in exports in the first half of this year, including automobiles and gems, as well as weapons, ammunition, machinery, and appliances.
Turkey's "Prepayment"
Before the Washington meeting between the presidents of the US and Turkey, Turkey waived the $1.8 billion tariffs on US imported products, which was a positive signal for the improvement of economic relations between the two countries.
This move did not disappoint expectations, and several agreements were signed in multiple areas between the two countries. In the energy sector, the Turkish Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAŞ) signed an agreement with Swiss Mercuria to import about 70 billion cubic meters of US liquefied natural gas over 20 years, which would be sold to Europe and North Africa. This agreement aligns with the US and European goals of reducing dependence on Russian natural gas.
According to Anadolu Agency, BOTAŞ also signed an agreement with Australia's Woodside to supply 5.8 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas over nine years, most of which will come from the Louisiana project in the United States.
Turkey's Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, stated that the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on strategic civil nuclear energy cooperation, aiming to open new directions in the field of nuclear energy and deepen the long-term and multidimensional partnership between Turkey and the US.
Bayraktar said that Turkey could cooperate with the US and South Korea to build the second nuclear power plant.
In the aviation sector, Turkish Airlines has completed negotiations to purchase 150 Boeing 737-8 and 737-10 aircraft, including 100 confirmed orders and 50 options. The company also announced its intention to purchase 75 Boeing B787 aircraft.
Sanctions Compensation
According to international media reports, US President Donald Trump has linked the lifting of the 2020 sanctions imposed on the Turkish Defense Industry Presidency to the abandonment of Russian energy ties, especially in the context of the contract for Russian gas supplies to Turkey (22 billion cubic meters annually) approaching expiration.
According to the "Middle East Eye" website, although Trump could lift these sanctions, the 2020 amendment to the Defense Authorization Act does not allow the US president to restore the F-35 program for Turkey or transfer the planes to Turkey. Although some analysts pointed out that Trump wore an airplane emblem during his meeting with the Turkish president, it may indicate that the US is considering re-evaluating the sale of planes to the Turkish military.
Sources: Al Jazeera
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561288737905230382/
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