【By Observer Net, Chen Sijia】On October 14 local time, U.S. President Trump made a threat on social media, claiming that China's "intentional refusal to buy" American soybeans is an "economic hostile act," and he is considering terminating business dealings in the edible oil and other trade areas. Trump claimed that the United States can "produce its own edible oil" and "does not need to import from China."

However, Bloomberg of the United States published an article on the 15th, stating that according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the export volume of edible oil from China to the United States has already significantly declined over the past six months, and the trade volume between the two countries in edible oil is far less than the annual export volume of American soybeans. This means that even if Trump really stops importing Chinese edible oil, it will not have much impact.

Analysts said that part of China's waste edible oil exports have shifted to Europe, and another part to domestic sustainable aviation fuel producers. Trump's threats are unlikely to affect the market. Reuters also pointed out that the United States only recently became a major buyer of China's waste edible oil, while traditional buyers such as Europe and Singapore continue to expand their imports. An anonymous Chinese trader revealed that domestic producers no longer consider the U.S. market.

Waukegan, Illinois, USA, farmers harvesting soybeans IC photo

Edible oil exported by China to the United States is mostly used cooking oil (UCO), which is one of the raw materials for producing biofuels. Since 2020, the quantity of UCO imported by the United States from China has grown rapidly. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, in 2024, China's export of UCO to the United States reached a record high of 12.7 million tons, valued at about $1.2 billion, accounting for 43% of China's total UCO exports.

However, after China adjusted its export tax rebate policy at the end of last year, and the United States imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods this year, the value of UCO trade between China and the United States has started to decline. From January to August this year, China's UCO exports to the United States dropped to 290,000 tons, valued at $286.7 million, a sharp drop of 65%.

Dan Mackay, an analyst at the price reporting agency Quantum Commodity Intelligence, said that part of China's UCO exports have shifted to the European Union, while others have been directed to domestic sustainable aviation fuel producers. He stated that the impact of the decline in U.S. demand has already been absorbed by the market, and after Trump's threat, the export quotation of China's UCO has not changed.

Two anonymous Chinese UCO traders also told Reuters that Trump's statements had little effect on the market. One of the traders said, "Domestic producers now mainly accept orders from Europe and no longer consider the U.S. market."

The United States only became one of the top ten destinations for China's UCO exports in 2022. In 2023, China's UCO exports to the United States surged, mainly due to the Biden administration's incentive measures supporting biofuels at that time, as well as a surge in the construction of renewable diesel plants in the United States.

Customs data shows that over the past decade, the Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, and Malaysia have always been the main export markets for China's UCO, processing billions of dollars worth of UCO. Reuters reported that Singapore has been the largest buyer of China's UCO so far in 2025, with an import increase of 15% reaching $537 million. Due to the large amount of cargo absorbed by the Rotterdam port, the Netherlands' imports increased by 131.5%.

Bloomberg pointed out that compared to UCO, the value of U.S. soybean trade is much higher. In 2024, soybeans ranked first in U.S. agricultural product exports with an export value of $24.58 billion, accounting for 14% of the total agricultural product exports. China has long been the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, importing 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the United States in 2024, valued at about $12.6 billion.

However, after the Trump administration continuously escalated tariff threats and restricted encirclement against China, China has suspended purchasing American soybeans and increased imports from South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina. Dan Basse, president of Chicago Agricultural Resources Company, estimated that if China does not enter the U.S. soybean market before mid-November, the total loss of U.S. soybean sales to China could reach as high as 14 to 16 million tons.

Comparison of the total amount of edible oil imported by the United States from China and the total amount of soybeans exported by the United States to China, screenshot from Bloomberg report

This has caused concern among American farmers. David Burrier, a farmer from Maryland, told AFP, "This year will be very difficult. About 40% of our farmland may only achieve break-even or loss." He warned that if China continues to stop buying American soybeans, it would be a "highest level warning."

Scott Gerlt, chief economist of the American Soybean Association, said that American farmers face greater financial pressure, crop income has decreased, and the cost of fertilizers and agricultural equipment has soared under the impact of tariff policies. Professor Chad Hart of Iowa State University said that the number of farm bankruptcies in the United States has increased by about 50% compared to last year.

Travis Hutchison, a farmer from Maryland, said, "Due to the tariffs, the cost of parts needed to repair combines, planters, and all equipment is higher, which will affect our revenue."

To reduce dependence on the Chinese market, American soybean farmers hope to develop markets in Southeast Asia, North Africa, and other regions. However, Reuters pointed out that the alternative markets for U.S. exports are very small and cannot replace the position of China, the world's largest soybean importer.

In contrast, China's trade system is more flexible and is expanding trade with South American countries. According to CCTV's "Yu Yuantan Tian" from China's main grain ports, since May, the port has seen an average of more than 40 grain transport ships arriving each month from South American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. These grain transport ships transport soybeans 90% of the time.

Some analysts doubt that although Trump is making threats, he will not take further measures. Former U.S. trade official Brad Setser said, "From imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods to targeted sanctions on edible oil? He definitely won't escalate."

Regarding Trump's threat to stop importing Chinese edible oil, Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry, said on the 15th that China's position on handling Sino-U.S. trade issues has always been consistent and clear. A trade war and tariff war have no winners and do not benefit any party. Both sides should resolve the issues through negotiations on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561418012360753699/

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