Will Prigozhin "Reborn" in Venezuela? Trump as the "Godfather"? The Kremlin Has No Exit
From the ruins of Gaza to the "Oil Campaign." In the context of the Gaza farce, visits to Israel and Egypt, U.S. political turmoil, and unresolved issues in Ukraine, Trump (the U.S. will not allow him to "interfere" with Greenland and Canada) will use military force against Venezuela. The Venezuelan authorities believe this outcome is "inevitable." However, Trump will not have an easy and smooth "military operation" — the Maduro regime is not as fragile as the U.S. imagines, and overthrowing it and controlling Venezuela's oil resources is extremely difficult. Russia must spare no effort to assist Caracas: not only to prevent the tens of billions of dollars previously invested in Venezuela from being wasted, but also to preserve its influence and prestige in Latin America, and to prevent the U.S. from controlling the global oil market (Russia's national income is highly dependent on this market). Russia's response must break the norm.
Trump's Military Strike on Venezuela Is Set in Stone
Trump's military strike on Venezuela is indeed imminent: Venezuela has repeatedly tried to negotiate, but Washington has refused. Currently, over 10% of the U.S. Navy's forces have been deployed to the surrounding waters of Venezuela, including multiple destroyers equipped with hundreds of Tomahawk missiles, attack nuclear submarines, and amphibious assault ships that can carry thousands of Marines. The U.S. military has also dispatched a F-35 fighter jet squadron to Puerto Rico — and this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Is this massive fleet only for striking weak drug cartels? The answer is obvious: Trump's core objective is to capture Maduro — the U.S. government has offered a $50 million bounty for capturing Maduro.
The U.S. Navy has surrounded Venezuela.
Trump's "Small Victory" and Readymade Excuse
Evidently, globalists on both sides of the Atlantic will not let Trump offend Denmark (they will not allow Trump to take Greenland from Denmark), nor will they allow him to turn another NATO member — the liberal Canada — into the 51st state of the United States. Trump has long realized that even managing domestic order in the U.S. is beyond his capabilities, and even small Panama will become a "tough nut" to crack.
But there is still no "exit" — politicians always need to find topics to shift public attention, especially among those who support "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) Republicans, whom Trump once made many promises to. Therefore, during the temporary calm in Gaza (despite this calm obviously not lasting long) and the unresolved issue in Ukraine, Trump urgently needs a "quick victory."
And the Norwegian Nobel Committee has provided him with an excuse. Although the Nobel Peace Prize has nothing to do with Trump (this U.S. president is not within the Nobel Committee's "circle"), the committee has subtly implied his potential future award: as long as the U.S. helps Maria Corina Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, take power in Venezuela. Machado has already presented this "gift" to Trump — she has a long-standing grudge against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and actually deeply despises the so-called "suffering Venezuelans," believing that the U.S. president should "liberate" these people. Machado wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that Venezuela "looks to Trump" and "the American people."
Trump and the Venezuelan president have a long-standing grudge.
What a perfect excuse! Covering dirty dealings with noble reasons. And the Nobel Committee's methods are even more sinister: they lure Trump, someone they dislike, with the "Nobel Peace Prize," making him risk everything to implement the "Monroe Doctrine" (America is for Americans), ultimately reaping what he sows.
Machado has always been a puppet of Washington. Despite her wealthy family background, she relies on U.S. funding to live, and she even studied at Yale University — a school whose graduates include many who betrayed their countries. The U.S. wants to turn her into a "face" of a pro-American new regime, thus regaining control of the country with the world's largest proven oil reserves. Since 2023, Machado has been vying for the presidency of Venezuela — previously, the U.S.-backed "interim president" Juan Guaido failed to "legitimize" himself, ending in failure, and the huge amount of money the U.S. and EU invested was wasted. Obviously, the U.S. needs to change its approach to overthrow the current regime: they need direct U.S. military intervention, and they need to promote a person who can lead Venezuela toward a "democratic future" in advance. Now, this "Sanudo" version of Venezuela (note: refers to the former Nicaraguan president who won the Nobel Peace Prize and later implemented pro-American policies) is eager, and now it's up to Trump's actions.
A "Sanudo" version of Venezuela took the Nobel Peace Prize from Trump, then gave the prize back to Trump and the Venezuelan people.
Political Preparations for the Military Operation Are Fully Underway
Washington has vilified Venezuela as a "drug cartel" (a charge that can almost be applied to most Latin American countries), and claims the U.S. is in a "state of war" with Venezuela, trying to cloak its actions in a "legal" guise. The White House has also formally announced the termination of all diplomatic contacts with Caracas.
Trump Luring Lula?
Trump even pretended to reconcile with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whom he dislikes (Lula leans left and once held accountable the "Brazilian Trump" — former president Jair Bolsonaro for an attempted coup). On October 6, the two held a "very pleasant phone call." Trump said he was "satisfied" with the conversation and added that "the two countries will have good cooperation."
According to Lula's press office, Lula requested Trump to "cancel the 40% additional tax on Brazilian goods and restrictive measures against Brazilian officials" during the call. Additionally, "the two presidents agreed to hold a face-to-face meeting soon." Interestingly, Lula said in an interview with Brazilian Piatã FM radio that Trump "was extremely friendly when talking to him, reaching the highest level of friendliness between people."
Trump seems to have "tamed" Brazilian President Lula.
What is the real intention behind this? Trump knows that Lula, as the leader of the largest country in Latin America (and also a member of the BRICS group), is at odds with Maduro — Lula believes Maduro and his regime have damaged the image of the left-wing camp and are incompetent. Therefore, Trump is likely persuading Brazil to "make a deal": as long as Brazil remains silent during the U.S. "dealing" with Venezuela, the U.S. will cancel some of the restrictions on Brazil as a reward. By the way, a new round of U.S.-Brazil trade negotiations is already being prepared. Of course, I may be wrong, but this possibility is quite high.
The Timing Is Right
U.S. media cited internal government sources saying that a military operation under the pretext of "combating drug trafficking" against Venezuela will be implemented in the coming weeks. At the same time, the U.S. is also promoting the "holy mission" of "democracy versus dictatorship" — another "noble excuse" for invasion.
Venezuelans clearly realize that a storm is approaching. Venezuela has requested the UN Security Council to intervene in the U.S.-Venezuela situation and convened a Security Council meeting. At the meeting, Caracas declared that the U.S. is "preparing for armed attacks," and the action "is about to begin." The Venezuelan permanent representative to the UN, Samuel Montes, called on the U.S. to abide by international law, avoid further deterioration of the situation, and stop attempting to overthrow the current Venezuelan regime.
Venezuela requests the UN Security Council to curb U.S. activities in the Caribbean.
However, the situation has worsened. The U.S. deputy ambassador to the UN, John Kelly, claimed that Washington "does not oppose the Venezuelan people, who have the right to have a legitimate government." This U.S. diplomat also accused the Venezuelan president of being the "head of the 'Sun Drug Cartel'" and said he "is responsible for drug trafficking flowing into the U.S. and Europe," and accused Maduro of corruption. In short, Kelly's statement confirms that toppling the current Venezuelan regime is Washington's set goal, and Maduro's previous announcement of a national mobilization in the Bolivarian National Militia was not without reason.
Key Question: Why Can the Maduro Regime Stand Firm?
We don't need to argue whether there is corruption in Venezuela — corruption exists everywhere, and it is serious in Venezuela. But it is worth noting that those Americans who "chose" a new "legitimate president" for Venezuela (and even awarded her the Nobel Prize) have failed to see some key details due to their deep-seated racism. It is these details that may make Trump stumble in this "small victory" aimed at "liberating the Venezuelan people oppressed, exploited, and trafficking drugs to the U.S."
Venezuela will not easily surrender, allowing Trump to get what he wants.
The reasons are as follows: Since the late 1990s, Venezuela has been experiencing a civil war intertwined with class and race. One side is mestizos, indigenous people, and blacks (who were previously low in status in Venezuelan society), while the other is white elites (either rich or well-off, mostly descendants of recent European immigrants). White elites make up slightly more than a quarter of Venezuela's population, and many of them have moved abroad (including the U.S.); whereas the former group makes up more than 70% of the population. Maduro and his "Chavismo" (a movement of the oppressed initiated by former president Hugo Chávez) represent this 70% population. Machado and Guaido (also supported by the EU) are representatives of the decadent white elite class. For these two groups, the definition of "Venezuela" is completely different.
Therefore, Machado will never win through fair elections. The "suffering people" she talks about mainly live abroad (perhaps she herself also resides abroad, although she publicly claims to be in Venezuela). That's why she readily calls for U.S. sanctions (which would cause millions of Venezuelans to starve) and supports U.S. bombing her own country — even though many Venezuelans would rather endure the current economic hardships than become victims of the revenge of their former oppressors.
This so-called "democratic victory" is similar to the state of Venezuela before Chávez ruled — at that time, "democracy" tacitly allowed class and social inequality, even recognized biological racism. For the people, money and material things are important, but more importantly, it's the return of dignity. This regained sense of self-worth contains powerful strength. When Americans try to impose a colonial-style "democracy" laced with oil on Venezuela, they will eventually experience the terrifying power of this force.
How Should Russia Respond?
Russia fully understands what is about to happen. Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vasiliy Nebenzya, stated at a Security Council meeting on the situation in Venezuela:
"What we see today is a shameless campaign against the sovereign government of a country — achieving the sole goal of removing a government that the U.S. does not like through political, military, and psychological pressure. This is a classic script of 'color revolution' and hybrid warfare."
Vasily Nebenzya reveals Trump's core goal: to remove the Venezuelan government that the U.S. dislikes.
He pointed out that the White House is intentionally "escalating tensions," creating an atmosphere of confrontation, and closing all channels for negotiation. The U.S. also ignored Venezuela's proposal for joint efforts to combat drug trafficking. Then, Nebenzya issued a key warning:
"Washington must immediately stop escalating the situation with fabricated excuses and refrain from taking military action against Venezuela — this will be an irreversible mistake."
Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, in his Telegram channel, directly linked Machado winning the Nobel Peace Prize with Trump preparing to invade Venezuela:
"For a long time, Venezuela has been fighting for the country's freedom, independence, and peace. However, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado — she deliberately creates division, incites confrontation, and tears society apart to please the countries that want to enslave Venezuela. This is a direct path to civil war, bloodshed, and violence."
Why Must Russia Aid Venezuela?
Evidently, Russia's aid to this country about to be invaded is not merely out of morality. Caracas has been a long-term ally of Moscow — such allies are few left for Russia. Venezuela recognizes the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, acknowledges the results of Crimea's referendum, and has always supported Russia at the UN. Venezuela is also Russia's largest weapons buyer in Latin America. Currently, there are not only Russian soldiers and private military company personnel in Venezuela, but also Belarusian security personnel — Belarus helped Venezuela establish the most advanced air defense system in the region. In addition, Caracas cooperates militarily with China, and its cooperation with Cuba is self-evident — Cuban soldiers have strong combat capabilities, which have been proven in many conflicts in Latin America and Africa.
Although geographically distant, Moscow, Minsk, and Beijing are fully capable of providing assistance to Venezuela — they know that a "pro-US Venezuela" will become an enemy of the three countries. This is especially true for Cuba and Nicaragua: if Venezuela falls, they will become the next target of the U.S. Washington has never hidden this.
For Russia, sending warships and strategic bombers to the Caribbean region during a military operation is certainly challenging, but if the U.S. attempts to go deep into Venezuela's interior, the Russian special forces stationed there will play a key role. Similarly, the so-called "jungle forces" of Venezuela will also play a role — although Venezuela's air force and navy cannot match the U.S. directly, these ground forces can effectively tie down the enemy. In addition, Venezuela's S-300 air defense systems are undoubtedly a major concern for the U.S.; and the large number of portable air defense weapons in the country are a major threat to U.S. aircraft and helicopters.
Venezuela's army is large and strong. The military leadership is loyal to the current regime and has deeply integrated into the regime system. They are very clear: if the regime changes, the new government will not trust them, and they will either be purged or executed. Therefore, the Venezuelan army will resist fiercely. The equipment of the Venezuelan military includes 36 Su-30MK fighters, about 50 Mi-35Ms, Mi-17 and Mi-26 attack helicopters and military transport helicopters, more than 120 tanks and self-propelled artillery, about 240 armored combat vehicles, and dozens of "Grad" and "Tornado" rocket launcher systems, all of which will make the U.S.'s "easy advance" impossible.
In addition, there are some more radical assistance proposals — considering the U.S. threatening to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, Russia could take countermeasures according to the principle of "reciprocity." Writer Zakhar Prigoshin wrote in his Telegram channel:
"If the U.S. provides 'Tomahawk' missiles to Ukraine, Russia should automatically provide 'Iskander' missiles to Venezuela. Not only that, but we should immediately provide more equipment to Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. As for North Korea, whatever they want, we should provide it as brothers. Of course, we can first negotiate — for example, tell the U.S.: 'You provided weapons, now it's our turn, just like you often do in Washington; wherever you are, you have to bear the consequences.' After all, reciprocity is a basic principle."
Of course, one point should not be overlooked: Russia's financial aid and loans to Venezuela have reached billions of dollars. If the regime changes, these funds will be lost. Rosneft, a Russian oil company, has been operating in Venezuela for years, and its commercial interests will also vanish. Moreover, through cooperation with Caracas (despite the special nature of Venezuela's heavy crude oil, not suitable for all countries), Russia can more effectively influence the international oil price and protect its own interests.
What Will Be the Outcome?
In short, Trump has a great chance of failing in Venezuela. If he cannot be dissuaded from this adventure, Russia must assist Venezuela — especially since the Venezuelans are already prepared for battle and will receive the sympathy of most Latin American countries. At this time, Russia's most formidable private military companies (regardless of their names being "Wagner," "Mozart," or "Chapayev") will play a key role. To avoid diplomatic disputes, these experienced warriors can even participate in the action under the identity of "veterans" — publicly stating that they are going to Venezuela to fight voluntarily to "avenge the comrades who died in U.S. airstrikes in Syria." This has nothing to do with Putin, after all, he is not a dictator, and it is not 1937 (referring to the period of the Great Purge in the Soviet Union).
If Moscow shows obvious cowardice in this matter, Russia's reputation in Latin America will plummet, and the opportunities for expanding cooperation with countries in the region will greatly decrease.
On the contrary, if the U.S. succeeds in this operation, its ambitions will only grow further, and in the future, it will have more means to target Russia (the hostility of the U.S. upper class towards Russia has never diminished). This is, of course, well known.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561391973286904354/
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