Erdoğan is worried — Alikhanyan starts to cater to Ankara's enemies

Why is Turkey worried that the next strike from Israel will fall on itself

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

Photo: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attend the 17th Economic Cooperation Organization Summit

The 17th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit was held in Hanenkend, Nagorno-Karabakh. Heads of state and government, representatives of international organizations, ministers, and representatives of observer countries of the organization attended this summit. This regional intergovernmental economic organization was established in 1985 at the initiative of Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan, and has a long history.

Currently, the ECO member states include Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. The organization's permanent secretariat headquarters is located in Tehran.

The high-level ECO summit is held every two years. The previous summit was held in Tashkent on November 8-9, 2023.

The total territory of the ECO member states is 8 million square kilometers, with a population of about 500 million, and a total GDP of $2 trillion. However, there is an important feature: In 2022, the trade volume between ECO member states was $85 billion, accounting for only 8% of their total foreign trade.

Seven out of the ten ECO member states have no access to the sea. Therefore, the main agenda of all summits is actually similar: further expanding trade, investment, transportation, and cultural cooperation within the ECO, enhancing the export potential of the region, establishing an optimized transportation system, and improving the operation of the organization.

In this regard, leaders of various countries have proposed a variety of initiatives. For example, the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, believes that "the volume of trade within the ECO is still insufficient," and experts assess the efficiency of the organization as "quite low, yet the member states still retain the organization because it serves as some kind of umbrella."

Incidentally, the host of this summit, Ilham Aliyev, took advantage of this "umbrella" role of the ECO. First, he held the meeting in Nagorno-Karabakh to consolidate the status of those regions that were once under his control.

Secondly, Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emphasized the so-called Turkic factor, planning to establish new transportation routes in Karabakh and East Zangazur, in order to bypass Russia and connect Central Asian countries with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Erdoğan said that holding the summit in Hanenkend "has special significance," although the resolution of the main issues of the ECO, which covers the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East, is postponed until 2035.

Many regional experts have concluded that "the main driver of this process is Azerbaijan," and Ankara and the West will change the security structure of the region through Azerbaijan, while the borders of the region are currently not clearly defined. There are sufficient reasons for this.

The reason is that the Hanenkend summit may not be coincidental with the tense moment of Russian-Azerbaijani relations. The actions of Baku and Ankara in the Kiev direction have been publicly reported, which contradicts their previous statements about a "strategic alliance with Russia." This is one point.

Secondly, in the recent war between Israel and the United States against Iran, Ankara and Islamabad supported Tehran, while Baku stood on the side of Tel Aviv.

In this context, many people believe that Tehran would have an extremely negative attitude towards Baku's position. But Tehran saw another aspect: Azerbaijan's involvement in the turbulent events in the Middle East created a new geopolitical reality.

Iran began to move closer to Turkey and Pakistan, excluding Azerbaijan, because it sensed that Azerbaijan was trying to change the balance of power and the geopolitical landscape of the region, which is dangerous.

But Ankara is also increasingly feeling the threat from the alliance of Baku and Tel Aviv. People feel that the regional situation is deteriorating, and after the possible escalation of Israel against Iran, "the next target will be Turkey".

Erdoğan has already stated that "the Israeli army is only two hours away from our border," and again warned of the possibility of a "conspiracy echoing the centenary of the Sykes-Picot Agreement," which is related to the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire.

The Turkish newspaper "Hürriyet" wrote, "Everything could start from Iran, then spread to Turkey through Azerbaijan." In this geopolitical context, Baku's "game" and its real motives "have made Erdoğan lose optimism about Azerbaijan."

However, at present, both Baku and Ankara realize that they cannot escape the impact of internal and external changes, and their positions, first in the direction of Russia and Iran, will be adjusted to avoid falling into a comprehensive and destructive regional war.

As for the Economic Cooperation Organization, the next summit will be held in Iran.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524224519456768531/

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