Not just the "monarch" of the Caucasus, but also the "khan": Aliyev shows strength to Putin and Central Asia

Baku moves toward conflict with the Kremlin, sending a signal to consolidate its regional position. How will Moscow respond?

Author: Irina Mishina

Photo: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev

Commentator of this article:

Andrei Suzdaltsev

Under the backdrop of open confrontation with Russia, Azerbaijan has begun to demonstrate its strength in the region. On July 4th, the 17th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit was held in Ganja (formerly Stepanakert, located in Nagorno-Karabakh).

Invited by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, Iranian President Pezeshkian, Presidents of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, Rahmon, Mirziyoyev, and Zaparov attended the summit. Kazakhstan and Pakistan were represented by their prime ministers. The UAE, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan participated in the summit with ministerial delegations.

Azerbaijan positioned this summit as an opportunity to consolidate its status in the South Caucasus and the "post-Soviet Islamic Eurasian region" from the beginning. Given the crisis in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, the high-level nature of this summit can be seen as a signal to Moscow - Azerbaijan's position in the region is stable.

Ilham Aliyev made a high-profile "showcase" of Azerbaijan's strength at the summit in Ganja. In his welcome speech to participants, he mentioned: "Azerbaijan has created a highly attractive investment environment. Over the past 20 years, the country has attracted about $350 billion in investments, half of which are foreign investments. Azerbaijan ensures the energy security of many countries, exporting natural gas to 12 countries, and ranks among the world leaders in this field. East-west and north-south transport corridors run through Azerbaijan, most of the ECO member states use these corridors."

It is worth noting that Azerbaijan's national currency, the manat, has remained stable for many years. Especially against the background of the ongoing fluctuations of the Russian ruble, this becomes more significant. The strength of the manat stems from the stability of the economy. In recent years, Azerbaijan's economy has performed well, for example, last year the country's GDP grew by 4.1%, reaching $74.3 billion, an increase comparable to that of Russia.

Azerbaijan's oil and gas revenue is impressive. Last year, oil and gas revenue brought $10.569 billion to the republic's budget (accounting for 48.4% of total budget revenue).

In addition, Azerbaijan possesses one of the strongest armies in the post-Soviet space. A single fact suffices to illustrate this: the Azerbaijani army defeated the Armenian army in the Nagorno-Karabakh war within 44 days.

Can Azerbaijan replace Russia as the new leader of the Caucasus region? Considering Ilham Aliyev's ambitions, what prospects do we face in the region?

With these questions, "SP" magazine interviewed Andrei Suzdaltsev, a political scientist and vice dean of the Institute of World Economy and Politics.

"The ECO summit hosted by Azerbaijan is the 17th, so it's hard to call this event extraordinary. Previously, this summit was always held in Baku.

The fact that this summit was held in Nagorno-Karabakh obviously highlights Azerbaijan's military superiority. However, the key figure at the summit was not Aliyev, but Turkish President Erdogan. Considering that Turkey is now trying to reclaim its former territories (some of which are located in Armenia), this phenomenon is symbolic.

"SP": If it weren't for the confrontation between Baku and Moscow, would this summit have received such attention?

- During the escalation of the conflict with Russia, the visit of regional leaders to Azerbaijan, in my view, is a gesture of support for Azerbaijan. At least from Moscow's perspective, this is thought-provoking.

"SP": Does holding the ECO summit in Ganja indicate Azerbaijan's military superiority in the region? Many believe that the Russia-Azerbaijan conflict could lead to a 'second front' for Russia in the Caucasus. Does Baku really have strong strategic allies in the region?

- The victory of the Azerbaijani army in Nagorno-Karabakh was due to the training provided by Turkish instructors. Ankara has provided considerable assistance to Baku, not only in advice but also in weapons support. According to expert assessments, the Azerbaijani army is expected to become the second strongest army in the post-Soviet space after Russia and Ukraine.

However, Eastern affairs are complex. The geopolitical landscape in the region is quite complicated. It should be noted that Russia still maintains a military base in Gyumri, Armenia, and Azerbaijan must take this into account. Interestingly, the Iranian president also attended the summit held in Azerbaijan.

This may indicate some kind of crisis between Russia and our strategic partners. When relations with Russia are tense, Zelensky called Ilham Aliyev to express support, which may mean that the same group of manipulators are behind the proud mountain people (referring to the Azerbaijanis) and the independent Ukrainians."

"SP": Does Russia still have allies in the region, or has Azerbaijan taken the initiative?

- Russia seems to have chosen a diplomatic approach. Notably, the head of the Tatarstan Republic, Rustam Minnikhanov, visited Turkey and was received by Erdogan.

Many believe that the main topic of the talks was the crisis relationship between Moscow and Baku: Turkey might play the role of mediator (in fact, after Erdogan's visit to Azerbaijan on July 5th, he called for both sides to maintain restraint - SP note).

Moreover, the official statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry also seems to imply that the conflict may be resolved quickly.

Evidently, our foreign ministry has proposed that Baku return to the "strategic alliance" relationship.

"SP": As is well known, in the East, only strength gets respect. Will Baku see Russia's stance as a sign of weakness?

- Azerbaijan must consider various factors. Indeed, Azerbaijan is currently the most economically developed country in the South Caucasus.

But its economy is largely related to Russia: Azerbaijan exports oil to Europe through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, passing through Russian territory (although the volume of oil transported via this route is not as much as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, it is still operational - SP note).

Additionally, Azerbaijan purchases a lot of Russian oil because it is cheaper, while its own oil is used for exports and sold at higher prices in the international market.

From a military strategy perspective, Russia can block Azerbaijan's access to the Caspian Sea, and part of Azerbaijan's "western gateway" will also be partially closed.

Similarly, it should not be forgotten that all the oligarchs supporting Aliyev's regime in Azerbaijan became rich in Russia and still have business projects there.

Finally, the large Azerbaijani diaspora living in Russia, if deprived of the means to earn substantial income in Russia, will certainly not forgive Aliyev.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523875973196988964/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the 【like/dislike】 buttons below.