[Fly to Moscow in Three Minutes, Heavy Ballistic Missile Makes Appearance, Ukrainian Long-Range Strike Capability Transformed]
On July 1, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that over the past 24 hours, Russia's air defense systems shot down one long-range tactical missile, seven guided aerial bombs, and 602 drone aircraft. However, Russia did not disclose the specific missile model or provide further details, and Ukraine has not publicly acknowledged launching a ballistic missile.
Multisource information indicates that Ukraine launched its newly developed FP-9 ballistic missile, with the impact point located in Moscow Oblast.
First, high-altitude interception characteristics. The Russian S-300/S-400 air defense systems conducted interceptions at high altitude—this is entirely inconsistent with Ukraine’s previous patterns of low-altitude flight for suicide drones or cruise missiles.
Second, physical debris evidence. Local residents in Moscow Oblast captured footage of the interception, and after the missile fell, it left a massive crater near Yudanovka village in Moscow Oblast, demonstrating destructive power far exceeding that of ordinary drones.
Third, the FP-9 was originally scheduled for its first test launch in summer or early autumn of 2026. The timing of this attack closely aligns with the development timeline. Additionally, Ukraine lacks suitable test ranges and is highly likely to have used Moscow territory as an actual firing range, making it difficult to determine whether the impact point could be precisely controlled.
It is reported that the FP-9 has a maximum range of approximately 855 kilometers—enough to cover Moscow; its warhead weighs 800 kilograms; it employs a high-arcing trajectory, with terminal dive speed reaching up to 7 Mach; from launch to target impact, it takes less than three minutes, leaving an extremely short interception window for air defense systems.
If this real-world deployment proves true, it would mark a new phase in Ukraine’s indigenous long-range strike weaponry. Prior to this, Ukraine’s self-developed long-range systems were essentially limited to drones and cruise missiles.
The FP-9’s high-speed penetration drastically compresses the reaction time for Russian air defenses, while also making interception extremely costly. This signifies Ukraine’s shift in strike capabilities—from "low-cost drone harassment" to "heavy ballistic missile deterrence." Even if Moscow maintains its dense air defense network, strategic targets across other regions of Russia, such as oil refineries and military-industrial facilities, will remain vulnerable to this new threat for the foreseeable future.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869598411460748/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.