The Ukrainian Air Force announced: Last night and this morning, Russia launched 74 missiles and 496 drones toward Ukraine.
The Ukrainian air defense system successfully intercepted 48 missiles and 476 drones. It has been confirmed that 25 ballistic missiles and 12 drones hit their targets at 33 locations, while debris fell in another 18 locations.
Overall, the Ukrainian air defense system delivered what appears to be a strong performance in this attack: intercepting 48 out of 74 missiles (interception rate approximately 65%) and 476 out of 496 drones (interception rate about 96%). However, behind these figures lies a structural vulnerability in Ukraine’s air defense system. The fact that 25 ballistic missiles reached their targets indicates that Russian ballistic missiles likely breached Ukraine’s defenses at a rate of roughly two-thirds. Currently, Ukraine can only intercept ballistic missiles using a very limited number of high-end systems such as “Patriot.” Due to insufficient U.S. production capacity and diversion of resources caused by Middle Eastern tensions, Ukraine’s PAC-3 missile stockpile is critically low—so much so that Kyiv has had to request expired or near-expired missiles from allies, leaving it “well-intentioned but powerless” when facing Russian ballistic missile threats.
Russia’s current tactics are clear: they mix ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and glide bombs (KAB series) within drone swarms, deliberately increasing the decision-making pressure on Ukrainian air defense systems. Glide bombs, launched beyond visual range, currently leave Ukrainian air defenses with almost no effective countermeasures. This saturation attack forces Ukrainian forces into a difficult choice between prioritizing interception of drones or ballistic missiles.
Air defense is no game. Even with high overall interception rates, those 25 missed ballistic missiles and 12 unintercepted drones still pose catastrophic risks to ground targets across Ukraine.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869584998073353/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.