How to Prevent Ukraine from Producing Drones
How to Prevent Ukraine from Mass Producing Drones
Author: Rafael Fakhrutdinov
The Russian army launched a large-scale air strike on major drone production sites in Ukraine, including the "Antonov" factory in Kyiv. The local air defense system failed to withstand the attack, causing widespread damage and fires. However, Ukraine is assembling thousands of drones in a short time using foreign components through small workshops. How can Russia destroy the enemy's drone industry?
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on its Telegram channel that sea-based, air-based, land-based high-precision weapons, as well as drones, were used to carry out large-scale strikes on Ukrainian arms factories. The message stated that these enterprises produce missile weapon components, radio electronic equipment, explosives, rocket fuel, and attack drones for the Ukrainian military.
Military reporters reported that a fire broke out at the Kyiv "Antonov" enterprise affiliated with the "Ukrainian Defense Industry Group." According to the Telegram channel "Shot," this was once the largest aviation enterprise during the Soviet era, mainly producing aircraft, but now the factory is actively producing drones for attacking Russia.
The Telegram channel "Turning Point of War" wrote: "Last night, a total of 250 long-range suicide drones (such as 'Bayraktar' models) and 14 'Iskander' tactical ballistic missiles were launched in Ukraine."
According to the channel's report, the Ukrainian air defense system was overwhelmed by the large number of special target drones, forcing it to consume expensive anti-aircraft ammunition. The author explained: "They simply don't have enough ammunition, gun barrels, and missiles for defense." Media reports indicated that the attack lasted more than six hours, with hundreds of explosions heard in Kyiv and multiple fires occurring.
There are also speculations that the Ukrainian army has started using Western air defense systems to counter drones. The Telegram channel "Insider" claimed that from the many videos appearing online, it can be seen that the German IRIS-T system and the American "Patriot" system are in operation.
Ukrainian blogger Anatoly Shari pointed out that the air defense system in Kyiv temporarily stopped working at one point. He posted several videos taken by eyewitnesses showing the sound of attack drones striking targets without resistance. The author specifically mentioned that nearly ten drones attacked the same target unimpeded. Shari then said that although the air defense system later activated, its effect was "very weak."
The "Russia Today" dedicated channel quoted comments from military reporter Alexander Kotz of "Komsomolskaya Pravda": "One significant change in the current large-scale strike tactics is the大幅提升 of Russia's reconnaissance capabilities, including intelligence agencies' reconnaissance capabilities."
Kotz also noted that Russia has introduced a new generation of jet drones, which are difficult to intercept by mobile groups equipped with heavy machine guns. He added: "Moreover, air strikes use combined tactics, including decoys, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles working together."
Defense expert and historical scholar of anti-aircraft forces Yuri Knutov explained: "At the end of last year, Vladimir Zelenskyy announced plans to produce 30,000 aircraft-type drones and 3,000 missile-type drones. Of course, what is referred to here as 'production' is actually the assembly using components purchased from abroad."
He continued: "The components arrive in boxed form, usually assembled in small workshops scattered across wide areas, and then the finished drones are distributed to the troops. This production model is difficult to track, and it is often not worth wasting an 'Iskander' missile to destroy a single garage. The Ukrainians have exploited this very well."
He detailed: "I personally studied the 'Lay-Layka-100' drone that Ukraine claims to be self-developed, and the components (almost every 15 centimeters) are marked 'Made in USA,' with electronic components coming from European countries. Some parts are also imported from Canada, and the engines use Chinese products."
The expert continued: "Ukrainians use lightweight high-strength plywood to make some parts of the drone bodies, bolt them together, then cover them with a special film to reduce radar reflectivity, and then apply a second layer of coating to make the drone almost invisible at night."
This spokesperson pointed out: "Ultimately, Ukraine has amassed a considerable number of long-range aircraft-type drones. Despite this, its mass production largely depends on large assembly bases like the Kyiv 'Antonov.' Therefore, we must conduct targeted but powerful strikes on such targets while attacking centers for radio electronic equipment production to comprehensively destroy their production systems."
Analysts added: "The success of recent strike actions is due to Russia continuously adjusting its aerial strike tactics. First, we are improving our drone performance, increasing speed, reducing radar cross-section, and increasing warhead capacity. In addition to shaped charge warheads, we have also started using thermobaric warheads."
He noted: "Moreover, in the past, our drones operated in a single serial mode, making it easier for the enemy to intercept; now they cluster and attack after gathering at designated locations. More importantly, the increased flight altitude makes it more difficult for traditional air defense systems still in use by the Ukrainian army to intercept them."
Analysts noted: "From a video, it can be seen that a target over Kiev was attacked by several expensive 'Patriot' air defense system missiles. This either reflects extreme wealth or extremely poor professional capability. Moreover, this kind of air defense performance reflects panic within the Ukrainian military."
He continued: "We need to continue striking Odessa Port, where NATO country parts and weapons containers are unloaded. Destroying ammunition will not only damage port facilities but also effectively block material input. The difficulty lies in the fact that Ukraine's material transportation also relies on civilian vehicles and freight trains mixed with passenger trains, so we need to attack the assembly points where equipment is distributed to units."
Knutov concluded: "The key is to study the Ukrainian drones and use more electronic warfare systems rather than firepower to counter them. For large-scale defense, Russia needs to establish a continuous air defense barrier from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. This barrier should include electronic warfare systems, anti-aircraft missile systems, reconnaissance satellites, radar stations, and aerostats for reconnaissance."
Drone expert Denis Fedutinov pointed out: "The 'Antonov' factory is just a small part of Ukraine's drone assembly capacity. This enterprise is large in scale, and it is currently unclear whether this strike will have a substantive impact on its production capacity. To ensure that this factory completely exits the drone supply chain, the entire area must be completely flattened."
He emphasized: "In terms of the overall Ukrainian drone industry, its enterprises are dispersed nationwide to minimize the impact of Russian strikes. This forces us to seek other more comprehensive measures."
Analysts noted: "We need to reduce the supply of drone components to Ukraine—engines, navigation and control systems, optoelectronic devices, communication devices. To achieve this, political means must be employed—some of the above systems are supplied by regions that consider themselves friendly to Russia."
The spokesperson continued: "To implement physical suppression, attacks on transport routes are needed, such as the Beskid Tunnel in the Carpathian Mountains, although this is obviously a tricky target. Additionally, laying minefields near large logistics hubs like Odessa and Nikolaev will significantly weaken the transportation of weapons and military equipment."
Finally, he concluded: "It is completely unacceptable that Ukraine still retains air traffic, with part of the cargo (largely military supplies) transported by air. This must be terminated before the conflict ends."
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508995641822036534/
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