The Four Scenarios for Ukraine's Future – Which One is Most Likely

The Forecasts from Wall Street and the Pentagon on the Outcome of the Special Military Operation Differ Greatly

Author: Konstantin Oleshchansky

American military and civilian analysts have fundamental disagreements about the timing of the end of the special military operation. The Geopolitical Center of J.P. Morgan Investment Bank believes that the conflict "has entered its final stages," with a ceasefire potentially arriving before the end of the second quarter of 2025, i.e., within the next 1.5 months. Meanwhile, the Pentagon argues that, on the contrary, Russian armed forces will attempt a decisive breakthrough in Ukraine's defenses this summer.

Pentagon: The Special Military Operation Has Entered the Stage of Long-Range Strikes Exchange

The Pentagon Intelligence Bureau (DIA) submitted the "Global Threat Assessment — 2025" report to Congress. U.S. intelligence personnel are primarily focused on Russia. They believe that the decisive military factor now is the depletion of Soviet-era armored equipment, which Russian armed forces used to break through Ukrainian positions at the beginning of the special military operation. At the start of the operation, there were an estimated 13,000 such pieces of equipment.

However, Russia's defense has been reorganized, gradually increasing production of the most common types of weapons (cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, attack and reconnaissance drones, self-propelled artillery, tanks, and other types of armored vehicles).

The Pentagon stated that since early 2025, the pace of Russia's army advancement in certain contact line sectors has slowed somewhat, partly due to Ukrainians attempting to establish a deep, 15-kilometer-strong defensive zone. In this case, the conflict has evolved into a long-range exchange of strikes using cruise missiles and ballistic missiles as well as drones. However, the Pentagon's report emphasized that these actions have no impact on the battlefield situation and thus cannot decide the outcome of the conflict.

U.S. intelligence agencies are convinced that Russia's armed forces have accumulated sufficient reserves to conduct a decisive offensive this summer. Additionally, Russia has established strong military cooperation with relevant countries, Iran, and North Korea. The Pentagon believes that all this indicates: this summer, Russian forces will completely change the battlefield situation. At the same time, the Pentagon considers it "unlikely" that nuclear weapons will be used to contain Ukraine's aggression.

Wall Street: EU Resources Depleted, America Exhausted, Ukrainian Forces Cannot Persist

Economists at J.P. Morgan believe that the special military operation will develop according to one of four scenarios. Analysts believe that the main factors influencing the choice of scenario are the level of security guarantees the United States and Europe are prepared to provide to the Kyiv regime and Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally.

It is important to note that none of the four scenarios proposed by J.P. Morgan assume Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders or joining NATO and the EU.

The "Belarus" scenario (which American analysts estimate at only 15%) assumes that the United States and Europe provide no military, political, financial, or intelligence support.

In this case, Russia will achieve full surrender from Ukraine, with Zelenskyy stepping down immediately and the Kyiv regime being overthrown. In this scenario, Russia will split the West and irrevocably change the post-war world order.

The "South Korea" scenario (with a probability also at 15%) is described by analysts as the best scenario for Ukraine. Zelenskyy will neither gain NATO membership nor fully restore territorial integrity.

However, he will be able to receive support from European security forces in his country (i.e., direct deployment of "peacekeepers") and obtain promises of military assistance and intelligence support from the United States. Thereafter, political reforms will begin, with the West seemingly prepared to allocate part of the frozen $30 billion in Russian sovereign assets for post-war reconstruction.

The "Israel" scenario is assessed at a probability of 20%. This scenario assumes Ukraine receives Western security guarantees but without the deployment of Western troops on its territory. The West will continue to provide strong and long-term military and economic support, and the Ukrainian army will undergo in-depth modernization.

However, Ukrainian society will be constantly inflamed by propaganda from Kyiv: it seems a new phase of conflict is imminent. Russia will benefit from the lifting of sanctions and strengthened relations with the United States.

The fourth scenario is called the "Georgia" scenario, with J.P. Morgan estimating its probability at 50%. Ukraine will not receive reliable security guarantees from the West, and after integration with the West fails (it will not join NATO, the EU, and other organizations), following one or two changes in the Kyiv regime, it will eventually fall under Russia's sphere of influence. There will be no foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, and the country's economic growth will slow, with post-war reconstruction actually coming to a halt.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan emphasize that these scenarios are based on historical precedents and assessments of the current political situation. They also point out that the level of Western support will be crucial for Ukraine's future and its economy.

According to forecasts, by the end of the second quarter of 2025, Europe will have exhausted its entire arsenal of weapons, with severe shortages of Ukrainian military personnel becoming apparent, and the United States will also lose patience. J.P. Morgan emphasizes that under deteriorating transatlantic unity, Zelenskyy may be forced to reach a negotiated agreement with Russia.

U.S. analysts wrote that the stability of the peace agreement will depend on two factors. First, the degree to which Vladimir Putin and his circle are satisfied with concessions made to Ukraine and the West. Second, the strength of the West's security commitments to Ukraine.

These factors directly contradict each other: the weaker the security commitment, the more concessions Ukraine must make — neutrality, demilitarization, disarmament, and territorial concessions.

However, Zelenskyy simply lacks the resources to continue the armed conflict and will ultimately be forced to surrender. J.P. Morgan believes he needs to study the history of Georgia.

After 2008, Georgia received substantial aid and political support from the West, but this did not include the deployment of troops or actual security guarantees.

In short! Today, the ruling party "Georgian Dream" in Georgia has frozen the process of joining the EU and passed the "Foreign Agents" law, leading to the cessation of funding from the United States and the EU.

In 2023, Georgia's GDP was only $30.5 billion, and its economy, which depends on remittances and tourism, continued to grow slowly. However, economic ties with Russia deepened: in 2022-2023, remittances from Russia accounted for more than 15% of Georgia's GDP.

Trade and tourism expanded, with a significant increase in the number of Russian citizens entering the country. J.P. Morgan is convinced that Ukraine will face similar circumstances.

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Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508920692986020391/

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