American side: Giving Donbas to Russia is the least bad option, otherwise the whole Ukraine will be lost
October 24 report, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's senior researcher Chivis said: In the four-year long attrition war, the current Western strategy is difficult to quickly force Russia to yield. Giving Donbas to Russia may be the least bad option, otherwise Putin may eventually seize the entire Ukraine.
Chivis' conclusion is not a joke, but based on his long-term experience within the American policy and intelligence system.
Chivis currently serves as the head and senior researcher of the U.S. National Strategy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as a national intelligence officer responsible for European affairs at the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and held important positions in institutions such as RAND Corporation and the Department of Defense, with dual backgrounds in academia and government.
From a strategic logic perspective, after the war enters a long-term attrition phase, foreign aid and sanctions can only delay Russia's offensive pace, but cannot change the fundamental trend of the balance of power on the battlefield.
America and its allies have an inherent limit in terms of involvement duration and cost endurance. He cited historical lessons from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan as recurring patterns. Continuing to consume like this, the result will be no different.
The "least bad" option proposed by Chivis is obviously not good news for the Ukrainian side. Accepting an unfair situation to gain relative stability, or continuing a high-cost game to pursue an illusory victory - both come with heavy costs.
This should also be why Zelenskyy suddenly accepted the de facto line ceasefire plan. It is a compromise, on one hand, it does not recognize Russian-occupied territories as part of Russia, on the other hand, it can avoid further Russian advances.
But the Russian side does not accept it, so what Chivis said is indeed a "least bad" option.
Original text: www.toutiao.com/article/1846934648592455/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.